Flagstaff Home Prices vs. Inflation over 12 Years

Looking at the median price over a full year, our peak was in 2006. That year, our median Single-Family home prices rose to $384,000. That year we sold 778 homes and had 1681 new listings come to the market.
After getting asked numerous times how our home pricing is today, compared to the peak before the recession, 

Now to clarify things just a little, we are looking in the general Flagstaff area, 86001, 86004, 86005, and only at Single Family homes in that area.

Fast forward 12 years to 2018, our median single-family home prices rose to $405,750 or a 5.7% gain over those 12 years. We sold 952 homes in 2018 and 1297 homes came to the market.
So there you have it, we are up 5.7% over our high point back in the pre-recession era.

But hold the phone, what about inflation over those 12 years?

This goes well outside my expertise, so I reached out to Emy Tice, a Certified Financial Planner with WT Wealth Management here in town.

According to Emy, the average annual inflation for that twelve-year period was 1.86% per year. If the housing prices in 2006 had increased at this inflation rate the median house price today should be 384,000*(1+.0186)^12 = $479,044.

The compounding annual rate of increase for home prices was actually only .46% per year based on the median home prices in 2006 and 2018, from the Yearly Market Comparison Reports out of the MLS.

This, of course, is due to the decline in prices during the market downturn and recession.

We had deflation in 2009, but for the most part we had increasing prices (inflation) throughout the recession. Prices of consumer goods kept increasing (except in 2009) while home prices were declining. With this said, our median Single-Family Home price has increased since 2006, but not at the rate of the overall average inflation.

Meaning, if Flagstaff housing inflation matched the average annual inflation rate over this past 12 years, we are right at 18% under the value of what a Single-Family Home price would be today.

Hope that helps in understanding our Single-Family home price over the past 12 years.

As questions come up, please never hesitate to reach out.

About the Author:

Jeff Ross REALTOR® Realty Executives of Flagstaff mobile: (928) 225-3511 email: jeff@allflagstaffhomes.com  website: www.allflagstaffhomes.com  15 E Cherry Ave Flagstaff, AZ 86001

What’s the Housing Market like in Flagstaff these days?

Here are a few detailed facts on our current housing market, through the first half of 2019:

Overall, the numbers are down. So far for the first 6 months of the year, we have sold 16.2% fewer homes in the General Flagstaff area.

If we break it down, Manufactured homes lead the pack and are the only category of home sales that have increased so far this year, with a 6% increase in number sold.  The rest of the categories have decreased in the numbers sold, with Single Family Homes sales for the year down -15.2%.

Median Home Prices are up moderately at +2.2%, with Single Family Homes leading the pack at a +7.1%

Active homes coming to the market for the year are -6.8% under last year, with all categories of homes in the negative.

A little further down in the stats, you will see home sales grouped by price ranges.  This report is for all homes between Williams, through Flagstaff, to Winslow, and for all categories of homes.

You will see that we had -20% fewer Homes Sold under $499,999.  Homes sold in the mid-price range from $500,000 to under $1 million are slightly down -3% or less, and numbers for homes sold over that $1 million mark are down a whopping 32%.

Another interesting stat:

The Median List Price for the General Flagstaff area for all home types was $415,000, up 6.4% from last year. The Median Sold Price as noted below is $380,130. That is little over an 8% difference. The buyers are the ones that set the trends in pricing, and so far this year, they are saying that listing prices are almost 10% too high.

This is also shown in the number of Days on Market, which has risen by 5% over the same period last year.

_{All Home Sales (86001, 86004, 86005)}

Year to Date thru July 9, 2019

Single Family, Townhome, Condo and Manufactured

Broken down

Single Family,

Townhomes,

Condos,

Manufactured,

All type of Homes in all areas, from Williams thru Flagstaff to Winslow

• Percent of Homes sold up to $299,999, Year to date
  •    -16.1% fewer Homes Sold
  •    -19.3% fewer Homes have come to the market this year
• Percent of Homes sold from $300,000 to $499,999, Year to date
  •    -18.3% fewer Homes Sold
  •    +2% more Homes have come to the market this year
• Percent of Homes sold from $500,000 to $699,999, Year to date
  •    -1.0% few Homes Sold
  •    -1.0% fewer Homes have come to the market this year
• Percent of Homes sold from $700,000 to $999,999, Year to date
  •    -3.0% fewer Homes Sold
  •    +3.0% more Homes have come to the market this year
• Percent of Homes sold from $1,000,000 and up Year to date
  •    -31.8% fewer Homes Sold
  •    -3.5% fewer Homes have come to the market this year

About the Author:

Jeff Ross REALTOR® Realty Executives of Flagstaff mobile: (928) 225-3511 email: jeff@allflagstaffhomes.com  website: www.allflagstaffhomes.com  15 E Cherry Ave Flagstaff, AZ 86001

Realty Executives of Flagstaff is the oldest continuous real estate brokerage in Flagstaff. Located in the heart of historic downtown Flagstaff, we have been serving Northern Arizona’s real estate needs since 1977. From mountain homes and land to intricate commercial transactions, Realty Executives of Flagstaff serves Flagstaff, Williams, Parks, Munds Park, Winslow and the rural surrounding areas.

We put together this video to share some moments along the way.

Realty Executives of Flagstaff 40th Anniversary on Vimeo.

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