A Strong, But Stable Flagstaff Housing Market

We hope you’re enjoying the spring season so far!

A quick question for you: What kind of professional do you like to work with?

For us — whether it’s an accountant, lawyer or investment advisor — we prefer to work with someone who continually adds value. Someone who provides excellent advice, is responsive when we have questions, puts our best interests first, and regularly sends helpful news and information.

In other words, someone who focuses on being of service and we strive to be that same kind of professional to our clients.

If you have questions or need advice on anything real estate related, we want you to know that you can always reach out to us. And, of course, if you’re thinking about moving this year, let’s talk. We’ll show you what’s possible.

We are here for you.

Fun News!!  The Flagstaff Farmers Market is open and back at City Hall, 211 W Aspen Ave.  The market will run May 2nd through October 17th from 8:00 am to 12:00 pm.   Due to it being on city property, vendors and staff are required to mask up and follow COVID-19 mitigation guidelines.  Customers are encouraged to practice safe protocols and spaces will be left open to ensure that the area will not feel too crowded and everyone can flow through easily.     My family and I enjoy picking up produce for the week and a big cinnamon roll that we can snack on while sitting in Wheeler Park.  What a relief to have a bit of normalcy back and a beautiful space to enjoy as the warmer weather rolls in.

How Does Flagstaff Real Estate Market Compare?

To get a better feel for how Flagstaff compares to the rest of the nation and even the rest of Arizona, I included comments from sources throughout the nation.
As you will see the trend is similar nationwide.
We have a shortage of homes, an over abundance of Buyers, and interest rates are as low as we have seen.

There are a lot of reasons we live here in Flagstaff, and I get asked often, where are all the buyers coming from.

I have seen a couple of articles recently about the slight population exodus from California. CBS news just reported that for the first time since 1850, California had a population decline. The number stated was 182,000 or a decline of .46% in their total population.
MSN reported the top 5 states they are moving to, in this order. Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Washington and Idaho.
To put things in a little better perspective, that 182,000 figure equates to  approximately 61,500 households.

Are all the buyers coming from out of state and California? Unfortunately we have no true facts to measure that, though the perception I hear a lot is from our neighbors to the west.

	This is very close to Flagstaff, With our Days on Market in Flagstaff (the time it takes from start of the listing to closing and turning over to the new buyer), this year-to-date is 68 days, of those days, it took 14 days to get an accepted contract. Compared to 2020 of 117 days on market and 68 days to get a contract on the home
	As I am pulling together facts for this blog, in the General Flagstaff area, we have 105 homes on the market.  Over the past 4 months, we have sold an average of 110 homes a month. This comes to less than a 1-month supply of homes on the market today. The experts in the Real Estate field say a health market should have a 6-months supply of homes, meaning, we should have 660 homes on the market today, instead of the 110 homes we currently have.
	Today as I write this,  and as mentioned above, we have only 105 homes on the market, Compare this to April 2008 we had over 1,400 homes on the market and over a 12 month supply of homes, coupled with far fewer buyer. We are polar opposites of the crash in 2008, where we had too many homes on the market, and not enough buyers.
	Though there is no crystal ball, we will be hard pressed too find to many that are saying a crash is coming. Just too many things are different from the housing crash in 2008. The main differences today, lack of housing, the extremely large number of buyers on the search, and the low interest rates.
	New Listings are coming to the market every day. All year we have hovered around 60-70 active homes, today are up to 105 homes. The yellow line in this chart is the telling tale, yes we are getting more homes come to the market, but with the large number of buyers looking, those homes are getting snapped up faster then ever, as evident from the slide above that talks about Days on Market

I get asked frequently to look for Foreclosures, either Bank-owned or Short-sales homes. With the rise in prices there are fewer and fewer homeowners underwater with their homes. Over the past 16 months, only  3 Bank-owned and 1 Short-sale home have sold, out of over 2300 home sales.

Experts Say Home Prices Will Continue to Appreciate

It’s clear that consumers are concerned about how quickly home values are rising. Many people fear the speed of appreciation may lead to a crash in prices later this year. In fact, as mentioned above, Google reports that the search for “When is the housing market going to crash?” has actually spiked 2450% over the past month.

In addition, Jim Dalrymple II of Inman News notes:

“One of the most noteworthy things that came up in Inman’s conversations with agents was that every single one said they’ve had conversations with clients about whether or not the market is heading into a bubble.”

To alleviate some of these concerns, let’s look at what several financial analysts are saying about the current residential real estate market. Within the last thirty days, four of the major financial services giants came to the same conclusion: the housing market is strong, and price appreciation will continue. Here are their statements on the issue:

Goldman Sachs’ Research Note on Housing:
“Strong demand for housing looks sustainable. Even before the pandemic, demographic tailwinds and historically-low mortgage rates had pushed demand to high levels. ... consumer surveys indicate that household buying intentions are now the highest in 20 years. … As a result, the model projects double-digit price gains both this year and next.”

Joe Seydl, Senior Markets Economist, J.P.Morgan:
“Homebuyers—interest rates are still historically low, though they are inching up. Housing prices have spiked during the last six-to-nine months, but we don’t expect them to fall soon, and we believe they are more likely to keep rising. If you are looking to purchase a new home, conditions now may be better than 12 months hence.”

Morgan Stanley, Thoughts on the Market Podcast:
“Unlike 15 years ago, the euphoria in today's home prices comes down to the simple logic of supply and demand. And we at Morgan Stanley conclude that this time the sector is on a sustainably, sturdy foundation . . . . This robust demand and highly challenged supply, along with tight mortgage lending standards, may continue to bode well for home prices. Higher interest rates and post pandemic moves could likely slow the pace of appreciation, but the upward trajectory remains very much on course.”

Merrill Lynch’s Capital Market Outlook:
“There are reasons to believe that this is likely to be an unusually long and strong housing expansion. Demand is very strong because the biggest demographic cohort in history is moving through the household-formation and peak home-buying stages of its life cycle. Coronavirus-related preference changes have also sharply boosted home buying demand. At the same time, supply is unusually tight, with available homes for sale at record-low levels. Double-digit price gains are rationing the supply.”

Bottom Line

If you’re concerned about making the decision to buy or sell right now, let’s connect to discuss what’s happening in our local Flagstaff market.

Regardless of whether the overall housing market is up or down, there can be fierce competition when it comes to buying a home in a desirable neighborhood. So, if you want to live in a “hot’ area, how do you gain an advantage? Here are some tips:

• Schedule viewings of homes for sale in the neighborhood as soon as they go on the market. Have you ever heard the expression, “The early bird gets the worm”? It’s often true.

• Arrange to get alerted, via email or text, to brand new listings the moment they are available.

• Make sure you have your financing pre-approved, so you can make a quick and credible offer right away.

• Prepare your current home for sale, so you can list it quickly (if it isn’t already listed.)

• Know how to make an enticing offer that a buyer will take seriously. It’s not always the highest price that wins the deal.

Even in a competitive market, you don’t want to end up overpaying. That’s why
savvy offer preparation, presentation and negotiation are also keys to getting the
home you want.

It’s been long predicted, but the time has finally come when whole-home systems can provide a network to allow the electronic features and fixtures of your home to talk to one another. Often a family’s first such network involves controlling and sharing subscription services for movies, TV and music among personal devices.

Imagine finding a home that is perfect in every way, except for one nagging thing. That “thing” might be a smaller kitchen than you want, fewer closets than you need, or flooring that you dislike. Should you buy it anyway? How do you know if you should take a pass? It’s not an easy decision to make and depends on a number of factors.

Notable, Quotable, Quotes!

“Go confidently in the direction of your dreams. Live the life you have imagined.” Henry David Thoreau “The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.” Barbara De Angelis “Your big opportunity may be right where you are now.” Napoleon Hill

 About the Authors:

Jeff Ross * Renee Gaun Your 1st Choice in Real Estate® Your Team for Success 928-607-5556  Jeff Jeff@AllFlagstaffHomes.com 928-606-6232 Renee Homes@ReneeGaun.com www.AllFlagstaffHomes.com

15 E. Cherry Ave Flagstaff, AZ. 86001