Realty Executives of Northern Arizona
Your 3rd Quarter Flagstaff Housing Update
This will be an update through the first three quarters of the year and for the most part for the general Flagstaff area. As a quick snap-shot, Flagstaff Homes Sales for all types of homes are slightly off, with 6.4% fewer homes sold. On the Positive side, the Median Price of homes sold so far this year is up 6.0% to $389,000. We did have fewer homes come to the market this year, but only slightly at a 1.7% decrease. Days on Market has dropped slightly to 102 days, down from 108 days.
Broken down just a little, Single family homes sales are down 2.1%, but with the highest percent price increase of 8.2% gain and Median price of $435,000. These are followed by Condos, which have a price increase of 1.9% to a Median Price of $215,000, then Manufactured homes with a Median Price gain of 1.7% to $245,000. The only category of homes that have decreased in price this year to date were townhomes with a 3.7% decrease to a Median price of $337,000. I will come back with a reason on this shortly.
We are seeing an uptick in activity over the last 30 days with the improvement of lower mortgage rates. We are seeing this on both sides of the equation. Sellers are seeing an opportunity to sell and either upsize or downsize, and buyers are seeing their dollars being stretched upwards with lower interest rates, meaning more home for the same monthly payment. We said a couple years ago we may never see as low of rates, but it appears that the ‘Never’ may have been misspoken. Time will tell.
Fewer homes have come to the market this year, but by a very slim margin, 1.7%, which is only 29 homes. We will see if this next quarter that number is erased and moves into the positive. If so, this will bode well for buyers and even for sellers, since new buyers will see that inventories are rising and may jump into the growing buyer pool, thus snapping up any additional inventory of homes that come to the market.
I said I would touch on Townhomes and the decrease in price. All but a few of our Townhome projects have been built out. We have a few going in in assorted areas, but that is it. Those new construction that are coming to the market, are coming well above our current median price, just not a lot of them. As I write this, out of the 42 townhomes actively listed in the general Flagstaff area, only 18 are available to move into, the remaining are in assorted stages of construction.
About the Author:
| Jeff Ross |
| REALTOR® Realty Executives of Flagstaff |
| mobile: (928) 225-3511 |
| email: jeff@allflagstaffhomes.com |
| website: www.allflagstaffhomes.com |
| 15 E Cherry Ave |
| Flagstaff, AZ 86001 |
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Welcome to Flagstaff! Its location is one of its best features, as it sits at 7,000 feet and has four distinct seasons. Here are a few fun facts:
Location -- It is gateway to the San Francisco Peaks, home of Arizona Snowbowl ski resort. It is also only 80 miles from the Grand Canyon, and hosts over 50 miles of urban trails (FUTS), as well as trails throughout national forest land. Including the Beale Trail…did you know Edward Beale used camels to help establish a trade route from Arkansas to California in 1857? Flagstaff is also home to the longest intact stretch of America’s Mother Road, Route 66!
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Nature and Space – Packed with trails and forests, Flagstaff is parked right smack in the middle of the largest Ponderosa pine forest in the world…and this tree is famous for its vanilla/butterscotch aroma in the summer months. Go ahead, find one and give it a sniff! And the Lowell Observatory is one of America’s first major astronomical research facilities (built in 1894); Pluto was discovered by scientists there in 1930! Also, in 2001 Flagstaff became the World’s First “International Dark Sky City.” (This designation is given to cities with exceptional commitment to dark sky preservation through quality outdoor lighting.) Like rocks? With its close proximity to the Grand Canyon, you can find many layers of rock history in the area…including fossils in the rocks that were used to build the Ice House on Birch Avenue!
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To Do -- Flagstaff boasts a variety of pet friendly hotels, restaurants, and shops. Bring your furry family member to one of any number festivals and events throughout the year. Too many to name, the short list includes First Friday Art Walk, Movies in the Square, the local Farmer’s Market, Pickin’ in the Pines, Blues and Brews, the Overland Expo, and the Urban Flea Market. There is something for everyone, whether your interests be art, music, history, food, breweries, camping, biking, skiing, star gazing, geology, or just a good time! Check out Flagstaff's calendar of events here.
Looking at the median price over a full year, our peak was in 2006. That year, our median Single-Family home prices rose to $384,000. That year we sold 778 homes and had 1681 new listings come to the market.
After getting asked numerous times how our home pricing is today, compared to the peak before the recession,
Now to clarify things just a little, we are looking in the general Flagstaff area, 86001, 86004, 86005, and only at Single Family homes in that area.
Fast forward 12 years to 2018, our median single-family home prices rose to $405,750 or a 5.7% gain over those 12 years. We sold 952 homes in 2018 and 1297 homes came to the market.
So there you have it, we are up 5.7% over our high point back in the pre-recession era.
But hold the phone, what about inflation over those 12 years?
This goes well outside my expertise, so I reached out to Emy Tice, a Certified Financial Planner with WT Wealth Management here in town.
According to Emy, the average annual inflation for that twelve-year period was 1.86% per year. If the housing prices in 2006 had increased at this inflation rate the median house price today should be 384,000*(1+.0186)^12 = $479,044.
The compounding annual rate of increase for home prices was actually only .46% per year based on the median home prices in 2006 and 2018, from the Yearly Market Comparison Reports out of the MLS.
This, of course, is due to the decline in prices during the market downturn and recession.
We had deflation in 2009, but for the most part we had increasing prices (inflation) throughout the recession. Prices of consumer goods kept increasing (except in 2009) while home prices were declining. With this said, our median Single-Family Home price has increased since 2006, but not at the rate of the overall average inflation.
Meaning, if Flagstaff housing inflation matched the average annual inflation rate over this past 12 years, we are right at 18% under the value of what a Single-Family Home price would be today.
Hope that helps in understanding our Single-Family home price over the past 12 years.
As questions come up, please never hesitate to reach out.
About the Author:
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Here are a few detailed facts on our current housing market, through the first half of 2019:
Overall, the numbers are down. So far for the first 6 months of the year, we have sold 16.2% fewer homes in the General Flagstaff area.
If we break it down, Manufactured homes lead the pack and are the only category of home sales that have increased so far this year, with a 6% increase in number sold. The rest of the categories have decreased in the numbers sold, with Single Family Homes sales for the year down -15.2%.
Median Home Prices are up moderately at +2.2%, with Single Family Homes leading the pack at a +7.1%
Active homes coming to the market for the year are -6.8% under last year, with all categories of homes in the negative.
A little further down in the stats, you will see home sales grouped by price ranges. This report is for all homes between Williams, through Flagstaff, to Winslow, and for all categories of homes.
You will see that we had -20% fewer Homes Sold under $499,999. Homes sold in the mid-price range from $500,000 to under $1 million are slightly down -3% or less, and numbers for homes sold over that $1 million mark are down a whopping 32%.
The Median List Price for the General Flagstaff area for all home types was $415,000, up 6.4% from last year. The Median Sold Price as noted below is $380,130. That is little over an 8% difference. The buyers are the ones that set the trends in pricing, and so far this year, they are saying that listing prices are almost 10% too high.
This is also shown in the number of Days on Market, which has risen by 5% over the same period last year.
Year to Date thru July 9, 2019
Single Family, Townhome, Condo and Manufactured
|
640 |
-16.2% |
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$380,130 |
+2.2% |
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1115 |
-6.8% |
Single Family,
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423 |
-15.2% |
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$427,500 |
+7.1% |
|
801 |
-1.8% |
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66.1% |
Townhomes,
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98 |
-32.9% |
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$336,000 |
-4.8% |
|
164 |
-18.4% |
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15.3% |
Condos,
|
66 |
-4.3% |
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$217,000 |
+1.0% |
|
89 |
-13.6% |
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10.3% |
Manufactured,
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53 |
+6.0% |
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$253,000 |
+5.9% |
|
61 |
-19.7% |
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8.3% |
All type of Homes in all areas, from Williams thru Flagstaff to Winslow
About the Author:
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Realty Executives of Flagstaff is the oldest continuous real estate brokerage in Flagstaff. Located in the heart of historic downtown Flagstaff, we have been serving Northern Arizona’s real estate needs since 1977. From mountain homes and land to intricate commercial transactions, Realty Executives of Flagstaff serves Flagstaff, Williams, Parks, Munds Park, Winslow and the rural surrounding areas.
We put together this video to share some moments along the way.
Where the Experts are - Serving Flagstaff and Northern Arizona since 1977
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