Realty Executives of Northern Arizona
People come from miles around to enjoy the outdoor spaces around Flagstaff. Whether you are into biking, camping, skiing, hiking, fishing, history, or all of the above, we’ve got you covered!
The Arizona National Scenic Trail (AZ Trail, for short) is a complete non-motorized path, stretching 800 diverse miles across Arizona from Mexico to Utah. It links deserts, mountains, forests, canyons, wilderness, history, communities and people. It is the backbone of Arizona, and a beautiful stretch of it runs right through Flagstaff. Its creation was the dream of a Flagstaff schoolteacher, Dale Shewalter. The Trail is maintained by Trail Stewards, incredible volunteers who give their time and talents to keeping the trail in great shape. If you complete the Arizona Trail end to end, you receive a copper belt buckle or pin to celebrate your accomplishment! One of our very own Realty Executives agents is in the process of completing the trail! Previous finishers have included thru-hikers and segment hikers, speed record ultrarunners, yo-yo’s, horseback riders, mountain bikers, and some pioneers who trekked overland long before the AZ Trail was completely built. Wanna know more? Check out: https://aztrail.org/.
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If you’re looking to stretch your legs within the city limits itself, check out the Flagstaff Urban Trail System. FUTS encompasses over 50 miles of trails throughout the city and includes areas on all sides of town. You can get just about anywhere around town on foot or by bicycle using these trails! FUTS trails offer an incredibly diverse range of experiences; some trails are located along busy streets, while others traverse beautiful natural places - canyons, grasslands, meadows, and forests - all within the urban area of Flagstaff. The system connects neighborhoods, shopping, places of employment, schools, parks, open space, and the surrounding National Forest, and allows users to combine transportation, recreation and contact with nature.
Keep your eyes peeled as you drive in and out of town…camels were once seen here! In 1857, Edward Beale was commissioned by Congress to establish a trade route from Arkansas to California, and he used twenty-two camels (a.k.a. “ships of the desert”) to carry supplies and tools. There are still stretches of his original trail around and outside of town. Some sections of his trail are abandoned, some are still in use, and others have been transformed by railroads, Route 66, and Interstate 40. If you happen across one of the trail markers, you’ll know it by the shape of a camel imprinted on its sign! Want to know more? Check out this pamphlet: https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb5434056.pdf
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Like to spend time on or near the water? Upper and Lower Lake Mary are located just eight miles south from Flagstaff. These long, narrow reservoirs are great for fishing, boating, and bird watching. The boat landing features picnic tables, grills, vault toilets, and a paved boat ramp. There is also the Lake Mary Narrows Picnic Area, where you will find a fishing area with wheelchair access, tables, grills, ramadas and a paved boat ramp.
Once you start exploring all the beauty around Flagstaff, you'll never want to stop!
So, What is Happening in the Flagstaff Market?
It is early in the New Year to talk about any trends, especially when trying to get a gauge on home pricing, but we can talk about the Housing Inventory.
All last year, we talked about the lack of available homes to purchase, the experts in the Real Estate field felt that trend will continue through 2020.
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But how is Flagstaff doing? Overall we had more homes sales in January, then came to the market. Total number of home sales started off extremely strong in January, up 79% with 93 homes closing compared to 52 the year before.
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Broken down;
Single Family homes
-8% decrease in the numbers coming to the market or 69 this year, compared
to 75 last year.
121% more home sales, 64 this year, compared to 29 last year.
Condominiums
114% increase in homes coming to the market, 10 this year,
compared to 3 last year.
43% more home sales, 10 this year, compared to 7 last year.
Townhomes
220% increase in homes coming to the market, 32 this year,
compared to 10 last year.
67% more home sales, 15 this year, compared to 9 last year.
Manufactured Homes
150% increase in homes coming to the market, 10 this year,
compared to 4 last year.
43% fewer homes sales, 4 this year, compared to 7 last year.
Looking at the Home Sales for January, normally if we see an increase or decrease in sales, we will see a corresponding change, increase or decrease, the month before in homes coming to the market.
I looked back at November and December 2019, those 2 months for all categories of homes in Flagstaff, we had only 2 additional homes come to the market over the prior year, 4 more in November, 2 less in December.
The chart at the left are figures nationwide, showing this is not just a Flagstaff trend.
A combination of better weather and better interest rates definitely helped the Real Estate Market and severely depleted our housing inventory.So, what happened, since the number of homes were not there in the prior months to support a 79% increase in homes sales in January?
When looking at the general Flagstaff area, for all home types, we had 17.2% fewer homes on the market at the end of January this year than last.
We are also sitting at a 2.89 month’s supply on-hand, which could be the lowest we have seen for quite some time, compared to last year 3.53 month’s supply.
The Experts in Real Estate say 6 months is a good even number to strive for, any less, we are in a seller’s market, any higher in a buyer’s market.
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If you are a Buyer: Inventory is tight and you do not want to make the error of reacting too fast. On the other side of that coin you cannot wait a few days to look at the home you have an interest in. |
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If you are a Seller;
Timing is good, maybe the best we have seen for years.
Number of homes on the market are at a level we have not seen for years, interest rates for buyers are low and expected to stay close to our current levels for the remainder of the year.
At one time, we said the key selling season was Spring, Summer and early Fall, but not today!
This is one of the strongest selling markets we have seen in quite some time...
With all this said,
A combination of low inventory and low interest rates may make for an interesting 2020, something we will keep a close eye on as we move through the year.
About the Author:
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The following will be a review of the Flagstaff Real Estate Market for 2019.
As you go through the data, this will be for the General Flagstaff area, including Single Family, Condo, Townhome and Manufactured homes, with a chart below that will give you the additional details.
But first, what about 2020?
From all indications housing should fare well as we move forward.
Unless something happens on the bigger picture world or nationwide, our mortgage rates should be relatively stable for the year, benefiting the buyers a lot.
Housing Supply will remain tight which will benefit the sellers in the lower price categories, which means once buyers have a very good idea of what they are looking for, reaction times to make those offers are limited.
Honestly, for now at least, gone are the days you see something you like today, but wait till the weekend to look at. Unless you see on a Friday, by the time the weekend comes, that home may already be under contract.
If you are considering selling, this will be a good year
If you are considering buying, this will be a good year, but some prior prep work will help you be ready when you find the right home
If you are considering Selling and Buying, there are important steps to take.
In all cases, it will be important to sit down with me, we can work out the best course of action that will benefit you and your family.
Now for a few facts:
Overall homes prices in in Flagstaff rose 5.4% for the year to a Median Price of $390,000 with 1498 homes selling, or an increase of 6.3%.
We did have slightly fewer homes come on the market with a .5% decrease. The Average Days on Market ended up at 104 days, and overall our Month’s Supply of Homes came in at 3.6 months.
To help explain this figure, the experts in Real Estate, say that a 6-month supply is healthy, any higher and we are in a Buyer’s market, any lower we are in a Seller’s market.
Another interesting fact, Cash sales accounted for 21.8% of the homes sold last year, that is down from the year before which was 22.80%. To give you more reference to this figure, going back to 2010, or 10 years ago, that figure was 19.86%.
A little more detail:
Single Family home median prices climbed 7.7%, to $435,000 with 3.6% more homes sold, 107 days on the market, and 20.20% of this home category sold as a cash sale.
Condominium median price climbed .3% to $215,750 with -12.8% fewer homes selling, 79 days on the market, and 32.30% of this home category selling as a cash sale.
Townhome median price decreased -3.9% to $340,000 with -3.8% fewer homes selling, 118 days on the market, and 26.80% of this home category selling as a cash sale.
Manufactured home median price climbed 4.0% to $251,500 with -1.8% fewer homes selling,71 days on the market, and 12.50% of this home category selling as a cash sale.
Some Explanations,
Condominiums- We had fewer homes come to the market, the median price point of $215,750 is the lowest price point for all home categories so highly sought-after homes. Bottom line, with only 163 listing coming to the market, there just was not enough to satisfy the pent-up demand.
Townhomes- this was the only category that the median price point decrease. This was caused by fewer new townhome construction at a higher price point coming to the market. Again, with a much lower price point than single family homes, Townhomes are not keeping up with the buyer demand.
Above we talked a little about ‘Month’s Supply of Homes’.
Overall, we are well below the 6 months supply we would like to have and at 3.6 month’s supply.
A more telling figure is when we look at by price point;
Homes up to $299,999, we have only 2.1 month’s supply
Homes $300,000 to $499,999, we have a 2.7 month’s supply
Homes $500,000 to $699,999, we have a 4.8 month’s supply
Here is where the month’s supply climbs and benefits the buyers
Homes $700,000 to $1,000,000 we have 8.0 month’s supply
Homes over $1,000,000, we have a 16.2 month’s supply.
About the Author:
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Ever want to pretend you’re walking on the moon?
Every astronaut who walked on the moon has trained in Flagstaff first!
July of 2019 marked the 50th anniversary of the moon landing. Not only has every astronaut trained in Flagstaff before going into space, much of the prototype equipment was also tested here. This includes spacesuits, the lunar Rover and stereo metric cameras. And Flagstaff continues the local legacy of space exploration. NASA’s current class of astronaut candidates visited Flagstaff in fall 2019. They completed the same training as the Apollo astronauts did half a century ago. After setting foot in Flagstaff, this group could be the next to step foot on the moon…or Mars!
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Local research geologists with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Astrogeology Science Center spent a week with students collecting geologic data near SP Crater 30 miles north of Flagstaff(if you want a laugh, ask a local how SP Crater got its name!) In the past, there were other areas that were used for training, including Cinder Lake. This was created by NASA: they set off explosions to make the craters, creating a landscape with a surface similar to the moon, so astronauts could practice getting around. Much of the local geological training at that time was led by Eugene Shoemaker. Near the south pole of the Moon is the Shoemaker Crater, named in his honor!
The training the astronauts received in Flagstaff is related to geological processes: learning qualities of different rocks, and how to take field notes and collect samples. They test equipment and uncover the geologic history of the region. This will teach the future astronauts how to create geologic maps and replicate the conditions of real lunar or planetary missions.
To do this, they have a geologist’s standard tools – hand lenses, field notebooks, rock hammers, GPS trackers aerial photos and topographic maps – as well as modern technology like drones and a handheld x-ray tool to analyze the composition of rocks. Drones give a great overview of the area, but do not provide the more detailed geographical data that is needed and provided by up-close observations.
If you want to experience the same landscapes astronauts have, you too can visit areas surrounding Flagstaff, including SP Crater, Sunset Crater, and even an actual Meteor Crater! These hikes are open to the public.
Make time to visit Lowell Observatory to learn more!
Christmas and a new Decade are right around the corner,
Best Wishes to you and your family during this Wonderful Holiday Season.
As we approach the New Year, if you have thoughts about Buying or Selling, I wanted to pass along what I am seeing. The chart below comes from one of the companies I subscribe to that helps me stay current with Real Estate nationwide.
Granted, this is talking about a nationwide issue, but in reality, we are seeing the same thing here in Flagstaff.
We are on track to sell fewer homes this year than last. Not an alarmingly high number, looks like close to 1% fewer homes both that came to the market this year, or sold this year.
If you are a Seller:
The demand is very high for homes that are priced comparable to others in the same area under $700,000.
The chart above will show you the nationwide figures for our housing supply, as mentioned above, Flagstaff is no different, and follows the article at the bottom.
The second chart, below, is the Foot Traffic of buyers, you can see the upward trending in September and October, November appeared to be no different, though we have no figures yet, again trending with the article below, and here in Flagstaff.
If you decide to sell,
Planning ahead would be very important.
The discussions would the standard, staging, planning, pricing, etc, but just as important, the 'What If' we get an offer and have not found a replacement home yet?
We will make plans for that.
There are safeguards that can be put into place to make sure your home is not sold without you finding the right one to relocate to.
With these Safeguards in place, there are few reasons not to go head with your plans to sell.
If you are a Buyer:
Inventory is tight and you do not want to make the error of reacting to fast. But once you have a good idea of what you want in a home and find that home, reaction time will be key to the success of getting an accepted offer.
Before making that offer, we are able to do the research to make sure the asking price and your offer price are within other homes that are comparable in the same neighborhood.
So What Does This All Mean?
To be honest, it will be easier this coming year to sell then to buy.
Should that stop you from buying, absolutely not! Especially with the current interest rates. It just means we have to keep an eye on what comes to the market on at least a daily basis, get out to see those homes ASAP, and if and only if it is the right home, react.
This coming year the housing market will be defined by 3 things- inventory, interest rates, and appreciation. But the biggest issue the housing market will face in 2020 is an inventory shortage. There aren’t enough homes on the market for buyers, especially on the lower end of the market. This is a topic that has come up frequently within the past several months.
Based on what is forecasted, we know that interest rates are projected to remain low and that appreciation is expected to continue as we move into 2020. Additionally, the upcoming election will provoke many unique perspectives on the health of the US housing market. The challenge will be understanding what is actually happening and how you can best position yourself if you are thinking of buying or selling your home.
According to realtor.com:
“Despite increases in new construction, next year will once again fail to bring a solution to the inventory shortage that has plagued the housing market since 2015. Inventory could reach a historic low as a steady flow of demand, especially for entry level homes, and declining seller sentiment combine to keep a lid on sales transactions.”
Diana Olick at CNBC:
“Inventory has been falling annually for five straight months, after it recovered slightly toward the end of last year, due to a spike in mortgage rates. Rates began falling again by spring of this year. Homebuilders have been increasing production slowly, but it’s not enough to meet the increasingly strong demand.”
George Ratiu, Senior Economist with realtor.com
"As millennials -- the largest cohort of buyers in U.S. history -- embrace homeownership and take advantage of this year's unexpectedly low mortgage rates, demand is outstripping supply, causing inventory to vanish. The housing shortage is felt acutely at the entry-level of the market, where most millennials are looking to break into the market for their first home."
The most important thing you can do is understand what is happening in your local market. You may not be able to avoid some of the issues brought on by low inventory, but you can be educated and prepared. Let’s connect and discuss the options that make the most sense for you and your family.
About the Author:
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Where the Experts are - Serving Flagstaff and Northern Arizona since 1977
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