Realty Executives of Northern Arizona
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Some Top Notes in our Current Real Estate Market.
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What does this all mean:
We expect this trend to remain through the Spring and early Summer.
Our Ask to you....
Sellers;
Please reach out if you or anyone you know is thinking of putting your or their home up for sale. We can do an market analysis at no cost, giving you an estimated value of your home today. Along with discussing if this is the right time for you and your families based on your family circumstances.
Buyers;
Be patient, stay focused! and please reach out with questions. As mentioned above, our job will be to keep the search focused on what you stated your needs were at the onset of the search.
In todays market we may be telling you 'no, that is not the right home', more then ever, about a home you have an interest in.
Why?, because the home you may be asking about is so far outside our original discussions and needs that you and your family stated you were looking for. You may be grabbing at straws that would not be in the best interest of you and your family.
About the Authors:
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Indoor and Outdoor Fun Abound
No matter what time of the year it may be, Flagstaff offers a variety of things to do. Enjoy indoor and outdoor activities such as hiking, skiing and biking.
ARIZONA NORDIC VILLAGE
One of the west’s largest ranching operations in northern Arizona, the village offers camping in yurts and tents, bike and foot-races, cross-country skiing and snowshoeing. It is also a popular site for family reunions, destination weddings and meetings.
BEARIZONA
Drive through more than three miles of Ponderosa pine forest to see animals in their natural habitat. Rated one of USA Today’s 10 Best Drive-thru Wildlife Parks by Reader’s Choice, Bearizona is open year-round. Be sure to visit Fort Bearizona, a 20-acre walkable zoo-like attraction.
STARLITE 66 LANES
This bowling alley is the place to go for family-friendly and budget-friendly entertainment. Enjoy bowling on one of 16 lanes or visit the arcade for exciting games. A snack bar and drinks bar provide refreshments. Lending to the party atmosphere are lively music, colorful lighting and several TV monitors.
ESCAPE ROOM
Gather a group of friends, family or colleagues and prepare to get your thinking caps on at Flagstaff Escape Space. This mental and physical game challenges groups to solve clues, riddles and puzzles to get out of the room in 60 minutes. Look for new room concepts every season.
FLAGTAG AZ
Throw an ax, play blacklight laser tag or check out the climbing wall at FlagTag AZ, the newest attraction in town. FlagTag AZ is dedicated to helping friends make lasting memories, and other offerings include archery tag, NERF tag, dodgeball, arcade games and delicious pizza and tasty snacks. Visit FlagTag AZ at 1801 W. Route 66, Ste. 102, Flagstaff and ask about free ax-throwing lessons.
FLAGSTAFF CLIMBING CENTER
Scale to new heights at Flagstaff’s indoor rock climbing facility. Flagstaff Climbing also is a local source for outdoor climbing guide service and climbing gear. Its guide service has helped climbers learn new skills in the indoor setting, and has guided first-time climbers in the great outdoors. Thanks to special-use permits, guides have shown climbers breath-taking views at Paradise Forks, the Pit, Jacks Canyon and West Elden.
FLAGSTAFF EBIKE TOURS
Discover e-biking and the power of mobility assist while experiencing the beauty of Flagstaff and the Urban Trail System. You still pedal and get a great workout while riding at 7,000 feet. Fat Tire E-biking is perfect for those who want to return to biking and need assistance to enjoy the outdoors. Tours meet at various locations from late May through September, and private group outings are available. For more information, visit www.flagstaffebiketours.com.
FLAGSTAFF EXTREME ADVENTURE COURSE
Get over your fear of heights and play in the trees with friends and family. The course offers a variety of zip lines and obstacles for kids and adults to test their limits in a fun, physical and unique outdoor experience.
FLAGSTAFF SNOW PARK
Bundle up and prepare for snow tubing. Glide down the runs, and when you need a break, check out the food trucks, huge outdoor fire pit, picnic tables and a store that sells knit hats and snow gloves. The park is open December through March, weather permitting.
FLAGSTAFF URBAN TRAIL SYSTEM
Run, bike or walk along this citywide network consisting of 56 miles of trails. The trails wind through busy streets as well as canyons, grasslands, meadows and forests, all within Flagstaff. The pathway connects users to shops, neighborhoods, parks, schools and wide open spaces.
GOLF
Golfers have plenty of options in Flagstaff with a variety of private and public courses including Continental Country Club, Forest Highlands and Pine Canyon. Every May, The Flagstaff Chamber hosts the Golf Classic at Flagstaff Ranch Golf Club.
GRAND CANYON DEER FARM
Animal lovers of all ages will delight in petting and hand-feeding deer in this 10-acre park. A path around the park gives visitors views of llamas, elk, bison, peacocks and wallabies. While you’re there, visit with a cockatoo, pet goats and porcupines or plant a smooch on a camel.
NORTH POLE EXPERIENCE
The magic of the holiday season comes alive at North Pole Experience. Work with elves on building toys at Santa’s Workshop. Check out Elf University and Santa’s Sleigh Hangar. Take your picture with Jolly Old St. Nick, and visit Mrs. Claus’ Bakery for cookies and soup. Book your stay at Little America Hotel, and a trolley will take groups on a magical ride to the North Pole.
FORT TUTHILL BIKE PARK
Hone your mountain bike skills amid the Ponderosa pine trees at Fort Tuthill County Park. This state-of-the-art bike park features flow trails for any skill levels, as well as a track.
TEAM RUN FLAGSTAFF
Grab your gym shoes and join a new group. Open to all levels and ages, the team gives runners the opportunity to attend educational workshops, trainings, social events and volunteer opportunities.
OUT OF AFRICA WILDLIFE PARK
Experience the animals of Africa in the heart of Arizona at Out of Africa Wildlife Park. Interact with giraffes, zebras and antelope on the African Bush safari; delight in Tiger Splash, a show featuring the playful nature of Siberian & Bengal tigers; check out the GIANT Snake Show if you dare; or fly above the wildlife on the Predator Zip Line Tour. VIP tours are also available. It’s an easy 40-mile drive down I-17 south of Flagstaff to the park, which is open year-round.
*Article from Flagstaff Chamber of Commerce publication, “Destination Flagstaff @7000ft”: 2019-2020 Official Relocation & Visitor’s Guide.
Whether You’re a City-Slicker, Rancher, a Growing Family, Student, or Single Professional, Flagstaff Has It All!
Whether you’re new to town and looking for an apartment or starter home, a family trying to move up to a larger single family home or empty-nesters aiming to downsize, Flagstaff has the housing selection for you.
One of the most sought-after neighborhoods is Coconino Estates, which is on Flagstaff’s West side and includes homes built when the city expanded in the 1950s and 1960s. Many of the older homes have been updated, while new ones have been built in the area. There are four schools within the subdivision, as well as some retail shops, a senior center, the Coconino Center for the Arts and the Pioneer Museum. Other neighborhood highlights are the Frances Short Pond and access to the Flagstaff Urban Trail System.
Along Highway 180 north of town is Cheshire Estates, which boasts a selection of mostly move-up homes in a picturesque setting. The Museum of Northern Arizona is in the area, as well as Sechrist Elementary School.
Nestled in the west-end of Flagstaff you’ll discover a vibrant new home community – Presidio in the Pines. When completed, Presidio in the Pines will offer over 450 home sites in a charming 91-acre location just off historic Old Route 66. This location provides quick access to the Northern Arizona University campus, Flagstaff Medical Center, Downtown Flagstaff and Interstate 40.
Presidio’s common areas include beautiful landscaping, basketball courts, playgrounds, dog parks and covered ramadas to enjoy get-togethers with friends and family during the summer. Adding to the community feel, Presidio in the Pines also features a well-planned pedestrian easement around the perimeter of the entire site for all to enjoy. Miramonte Homes is the largest builder in Presidio in the Pines with four distinct subdivisions – Presidio Phase III, Garden Pines, Mountain Pines and its latest subdivision, The Enclave at Presidio.
Capstone Homes, which is a leading custom home builder in the region, provides starter and luxury homes in Flagstaff.
Flagstaff Ranch borders the largest Ponderosa pine forest in North America and national forest land. The gated community is next to a championship 18-hole golf course featuring a rolling landscape, natural rock formations and spectacular mountain views. Homebuyers can select from more than 10 floor plans ranging from 2,308 to 3,857 square feet.
Aspen Ridge at Flagstaff Ranch is a luxury townhome community next to the 16 fairway. Floor plans range from two to four bedrooms and 2,335 to 2,749 square feet. Golf or social memberships are available for residents to enjoy amenities such as a 25,000-square-foot clubhouse with restaurant and a Community Center that has a fitness center, pool, spa and tennis courts.
Flagstaff Capstone Homes offers the community of Crestview, which includes homes with welcoming front porches plus optional guest houses. Ask about the specific lots and floor plans that are part of the City of Flagstaff Community Land Trust Program to assist first-time home buyers and others who qualify.
Ponderosa Trails, which is near Interstate 17, Northern Arizona University and Pulliam Airport, includes about 640 homes sites, several acres of open space and easy access to walking trails. Most homes have been built since 2000 and offer excellent views.
The Boulder Pointe neighborhood includes 320 single family homes, plus 181 townhomes in two areas – The Townhomes at Boulder Point and The Enclave. It is also conveniently located on the west side of Flagstaff and close to Northern Arizona University, with easy access to Interstates 40 and 17.
The Elevation Luxury Apartments offer beautiful views of Mount Elden, a convenient location and large spacious floor plans. Elevations Luxury Apartments offer one, two and three-bedroom spacious apartment homes from 755 to 1,158 square feet, with an open concept floor plan, 9-foot vaulted ceilings, sleek modern cabinetry, over-sized dual pane windows and in apartment washer and dryers. Plus, there are amenities such as year-round heated salt water pool, state-of-the-art fitness center with yoga room, a fenced pet park, a kids playground, Amazon hub package lockers & a coffee bar to stop in and get your favorite cup of java.
Elevation residents are steps away from Flagstaff Mall and very close to the freeway, plus minutes away from outdoor activities. Leases are offered from six to 12 months.
*Article from Flagstaff Chamber of Commerce publication, “Destination Flagstaff @7000ft”: 2019-2020 Official Relocation & Visitor’s Guide.
I hope 2021 has been off to a great start for you!
If you have any big plans for the year, you might be interested in this famous quote by Benjamin Franklin, “If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.”
I would add, “Plan Early.” We know that the sooner you get started, the more likely you are to ultimately succeed.
As we move into 2021 this early in the year, figuring out what will happen this year may be difficult at best.
My Goals,
Be there for you of course and then try to make up for a few of the missed hikes and trips with family.
Before I get into Real Estate, I wanted to welcome Renee Gaun.
Renee and I will be teaming together as the new year begins. Renee is just coming to the office, so watch for more about and from Renee in the months to come.
Now to the World of Real Estate;
Below, I will cover the past year's Real Estate Sales history, and it was one for the record books.
But what will happen in 2021?
We have talked to a lot here at Realty Executives of Flagstaff
All indicators show that if we have the available homes to sell, it will be another great year for both the Buyers and Sellers.
There are positives on all sides
The Buyers Side,
Interest rates are at historic low levels and are expected to hold that course. Lenders are out there willing and waiting to help you on the lending side of the purchase. I cannot say enough about the interest rates and the buying power this brings to the Buyers.
The Sellers Side,
With the extreme low level of homes on the market, am not sure there will be a better time to sell. I should rephrase that, though no one can look past tomorrow, we can look back even over the past 4 months. There has not been a better time to sell and I do not see this changing moving forward through 2021.
Even though we are still in the dead of winter, you should not be afraid to move forward with your plans. Those that are putting their homes on the market this past month are being pleasantly surprised with their final outcome.
If you have that second home you have not been using as much, this would be a good time to make that change.
With the tightness of inventory over the past few years, there is an increasing number of buyers that want to get out from under those rent increases year after year and take advantage of these current interest rates.
There are a few things to consider when selling, you should reach out to me about those.
I’m here to help whenever you have questions or need advice that’s real estate-related. Even if you need a contractor recommendation, I can help. Feel free to reach out to me anytime.
Below, you will see a detailed summary of the 2020 housing year in the general Flagstaff area.
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Bottom line,
For all home types in the General Flagstaff area
24.7%, more homes were sold in 2020
4.2%, more homes came to the market in Flagstaff
11.5%, was our median price increase in homes
1.52, months supply of homes on-hand, this would be considered our Absorption Rate.
65, The total number of homes of all kinds, Single Family Condo, Townhome and Manufactured, on the market as of Monday January 4th.
The following chart will run down these stats for each of the home categories.
What is this telling us?
We did have more homes come to the market this year than last, but sold even more homes this year than last year, it was a true Sellers Market.
With 4.2% more coming to the market, but selling 24.7% more homes, and at only 65 homes on the market today, we have drained any reserve in available homes we may have had.
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If all things stay equal and no new downside events happen;
I said above, we can have a good year in 2021, and still feel that way.
We had more homes come to the market in 2020, even in a Covid year. With things hoping to improve in 2021, vaccines getting out, and a new normal coming at some point, we are expecting 5-10% increase in the number of homes coming to the market.
With the pent up demand we have from buyers, this 5-10% will get snapped up right away. We do not have the reserve out there like we did in 2020, so more than likely that may be our increase for 2021.
To Home Prices;
Looking at the numbers above and in the chart below, you will see home prices increased for all home types by 11.5% and just for single family by 15.9% increase.
With that said, we need to take a step back a bit!
What was not included above or below was what happened in our Gated Golf Communities: Forest Highlands, Flagstaff Ranch, and Pine Canyon.
those communities accounted for 19.5% of our single family homes sales, they had a 19.1% increase in prices and sold 103% more homes or more than double the year before.
When we take those Gate Community homes out of the pricing equation,
8.6%, increase in prices for all home types, compared to the 11.5% when you include the gated communities.
10.8%, increase in prices for Single Family homes, compared to the 15.9% when you include the gated communities.
Pricing may trend toward these adjusted figures for 2021 for homes outside the gated communities.
In a nutshell, that was 2020, and what we expect in the Real Estate world for 2021.
You know I am here for you, so please reach out. Even if not to talk Real Estate, have a new hobby coming, BikePacking so would love to talk about that.
Best Wishes as we move into 2021, and look forward hearing from you.
Jeff
About the Author:
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What is Happening? In the Flagstaff Housing
A lot is happening in Housing in Flagstaff!
I get asked on a daily basis, what is actually happening? In Real Estate today.
There are no simple answers but there are some facts that can help give us some direction in what is Happening?
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With that, I went back 11 years in Real Estate to 2010, then came forward year by year. TODAY, 1.7 months |
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The Absorption Rate is one of the best numbers to use to gauge a healthy market. Experts in Real Estate feel 6 months is healthy, more and it is a Buyer’s Market, less and a Seller’s Market.
Let’s look at every year since 2010
2010---12.37 months’ supply on-hand, this is more than a year’s supply
2011---9.96
2012---6.35
2013---5.79
2014---5.37
2015---4.43
2016---3.82
2017---4.08
2018---4.06
2019---4.40
2020---1.7 month’s supply on-hand, just under 2 months, Hard to say if we have ever been at this figure.
It has been 8 years since we have been at a Balanced Market or 6 months’ supply on hand.
Over the past 11 years, the supply of homes has only increased 2 years from the previous year.
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More telling,
Thru November of this year, 2020
We have sold 1738 homes or 24.2% MORE homes than 2019
Year to date through December 6th, we have had 15 more homes come to the market then last year.
Our Median price again thru December 6, 2020 is at $410,000 or a 10.8% increase for all home types, Single Family, Townhome, Condo and Manufactured.
One thing we hear, fewer homes are coming to the Market, but the FACTS just do not show this to be true. It is close but still a positive number.
So what has happened,
Here is what we do know.
• We have had a declining availability of homes 8 of the past 10 years.
• On top of that, interest rates today are at historic low Levels, giving buyers more buying power than they ever had.
• New Construction came to almost a halt from about 2007 through 2015
• Older Homeowners that normally downsized have not been able to find that smaller home for one reason or another, so have stayed put.
• Covid-19 did slow people down from putting their homes on the market.
• We have a tremendous backlog of Buyers looking for that right home, could be the largest backlog we have seen in years, at least 11.
With all these points, am not sure we can point to any one reason as to how we got to 1.7 months’ supply of homes.
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What do we see coming? • New Home Construction is out there but not enough to completely solve our shortfall |
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What Now?
Buyers
There is still opportunity but will take patience and persistence. Your Real Estate Agent may want to be working full-time, so they can spot and get you out to homes, within reason, at a moment’s notice.
Sellers
What we do know, today is one of the most opportune times to sell.
Homes are getting numerous showings and multiple offers. Though price is at the top of the list in deciding which offer is best, there are 20+ other points in the Purchase Contract that also help make that final deciding decision.
Honestly, this is where you need me the most, A Full Time agent that will help you look at all the key points in a purchase contract to come up with the best offer for you and your family.
As with all my Newsletters, they are questions left unanswered, so please, please never hesitate to reach out with those questions.
I look forward visiting with each of you as we moving into a New Year.
Best Wishes and have a Great Holiday Season
Jeff
About the Author:
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Where the Experts are - Serving Flagstaff and Northern Arizona since 1977
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