What is Happening? In the Flagstaff Housing

A lot is happening in Housing in Flagstaff!

I get asked on a daily basis, what is actually happening? In Real Estate today.

There are no simple answers but there are some facts that can help give us some direction in what is Happening?

With that, I went back 11 years in Real Estate to 2010, then came forward year by year. For the most part figures will be through November each year unless otherwise noted. So back in 2010, We sold 787 homes or -9.6 % fewer than the year before. At that time, we had 908 homes on the market down -2% from the year before Our Median Price on all homes, Single family, Townhome, Condo, and Manufactured, was $225,000 down -10% for the full year The Most Telling, our Absorption Rate, (the number of months (using average home sales volume) to sell every month on the market), was 12.37 months, over a year! TODAY, 1.7 months

The Absorption Rate is one of the best numbers to use to gauge a healthy market. Experts in Real Estate feel 6 months is healthy, more and it is a Buyer’s Market, less and a Seller’s Market.
Let’s look at every year since 2010

2010---12.37 months’ supply on-hand, this is more than a year’s supply
2011---9.96
2012---6.35
2013---5.79
2014---5.37
2015---4.43
2016---3.82
2017---4.08
2018---4.06
2019---4.40
2020---1.7 month’s supply on-hand, just under 2 months, Hard to say if we have ever been at this figure.

It has been 8 years since we have been at a Balanced Market or 6 months’ supply on hand.
Over the past 11 years, the supply of homes has only increased 2 years from the previous year.

More telling,

Thru November of this year, 2020
We have sold 1738 homes or 24.2% MORE homes than 2019
Year to date through December 6th, we have had 15 more homes come to the market then last year.
Our Median price again thru December 6, 2020 is at $410,000 or a 10.8% increase for all home types, Single Family, Townhome, Condo and Manufactured.

One thing we hear, fewer homes are coming to the Market, but the FACTS just do not show this to be true. It is close but still a positive number.

So what has happened,
Here is what we do know.

• We have had a declining availability of homes 8 of the past 10 years.
•  On top of that, interest rates today are at historic low Levels, giving buyers more buying power than they ever had.
• New Construction came to almost a halt from about 2007 through 2015
• Older Homeowners that normally downsized have not been able to find that smaller home for one reason or another, so have stayed put.
•  Covid-19 did slow people down from putting their homes on the market.
• We have a tremendous backlog of Buyers looking for that right home, could be the largest backlog we have seen in years, at least 11.

With all these points, am not sure we can point to any one reason as to how we got to 1.7 months’ supply of homes.

What do we see coming? • New Home Construction is out there but not enough to completely solve our shortfall • They are saying Nationwide, that once the Covid-19 Vaccine comes into play, homeowners that have held off selling, may be getting their homes on the market • 2nd homeowners that have not been using their 2nd homes as much for assorted reasons, may see this as an opportune time to sell during this housing shortfall.

What Now?

Buyers
There is still opportunity but will take patience and persistence. Your Real Estate Agent may want to be working full-time, so they can spot and get you out to homes, within reason, at a moment’s notice.

Sellers
What we do know, today is one of the most opportune times to sell. 
Homes are getting numerous showings and multiple offers. Though price is at the top of the list in deciding which offer is best, there are 20+ other points in the Purchase Contract that also help make that final deciding decision. 
Honestly, this is where you need me the most, A Full Time agent that will help you look at all the key points in a purchase contract to come up with the best offer for you and your family.

As with all my Newsletters, they are questions left unanswered, so please, please never hesitate to reach out with those questions.
I look forward visiting with each of you as we moving into a New Year.

Best Wishes and have a Great Holiday Season

Jeff

About the Author:

The community of Flagstaff has always been animal friendly. This year saw the animal lovers in the area shine as they made sure companion animals were well cared for. In particular, High Country Humane saw an outpouring of love and care. There were foster families who responded without hesitation when asked to care for bottle babies, both canine and feline, and provide that extra level of care for medical cases and senior animals. There were also donors who generously opened their wallets to ensure that needed additional resources were always available. And last but not least, the wonderful volunteers who willingly gave their time and energy and care. And all this care and support was coordinated by the hard-working, compassionate staff at High Country Humane, which includes a full-time in-house veterinary team.

Some of their remarkable achievements include:

• 2,692 animals taken in so far in 2020
• 1,923 of those adopted into new homes and 409 returned to their owners
• A “Live Release Rate” of 97.3%, meaning that of the animals who entered High Country Humane, 97.3% were either adopted, returned to their owners, or transferred to another shelter or rescue.

Another feature offered by High Country Humane is their Pet Food Pantry. One of the most common reasons pet owners give up their companion is financial hardship. The HCH Pet Food Pantry is designed to help struggling families keep beloved pets in their homes. The pantry is supported entirely through community donations.

There is also the Working Cats Program. This program was designed to help feral or stray cats who can’t be adopted into traditional homes, but who still need a protected or sheltered living arrangement. The program places these cats in barns, flower shops, police stations, and other businesses looking for inexpensive, safe, and effective rodent control.

While 2020 has been a year unlike any other, there has been much to be grateful for and acknowledged when it comes to animal care in the Flagstaff community!

Want to know more? Check out High Country Humane's website.

Lending, Why Working with a Local Lender May Help Your Offer

This environment has widened the gap of ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ when it comes to obtaining a home. It was recently asked.  “How can local lenders be seen as a competitive advantage in this market?” and this is what we will attempt to answer in bullet points below!

1. A seasoned local lender will anticipate the Known Issues to our areas before they arise whereas a non-local   lender simple doesn’t know what they haven’t yet experienced.
   1. The local lenders know the appraisal time frames in our area and have preapproved panels of only the best area local appraisers. For example, local lenders will only pick the top performing out of the 20 or so available in Flagstaff.
   2. Local Lenders know property specific concerns that range from utility requirements (septic, water haul, wells etc) to location and access issues (road maintenance agreements, forest service road access etc) and can resolve upfront before these postpone or derail transactions.
2. Local lenders have a team from start to finish that understands Northern Arizona.
   1. Local lenders typically have processors and underwriters that are familiar with the area or work exclusively in this area so they understand how employment aspects, property aspects and overall logistics work for real estate transactions in the market you’re purchasing. Out of state and out of area lenders often struggle to grasp certain issues and can decline financing where area-focused processing and underwriting work easily through the system.
3. Local Lenders are a known commodity.
   1. There are over 20 different factors that a seller may consider when an offer is presented, the Highest and Best offer is not necessarily the only deciding factor. Lending is a significant factor when sellers contemplate when accepting an offer, thus taking their home off the market. Though it would be great if ‘all lenders were created equal’, it is the unfortunate experience that out of area and unknown lending entities could pose a risk to the seller as they are an unknown commodity. With strong track records of performance and a dedication to the local real estate industry’s success, local lenders are a known commodity that then offer a competitive advantage on an offer. The Local lender also understands they are expected to Close on Time, or the next Seller/Buyer will not come their way.
4. Lastly, it’s detailed and personal!
   1. This may sound like ‘fluff’ but most local lenders are going to work to specifically understand YOU and YOUR NEEDS and not treat you like another number or transaction. This not only means that you’re likely to get the proper advice and direction upfront during home shopping (which can be extremely critical!) and a smoother transaction through the processes but it also means that when obstacles arise you have some one that is personally fighting for you as a member of your real estate team.
   2. The Listing Agent most likely knows the Local Loan Officer and having a positive past work experience with the Loan Officer can be critical. These listing agents remember which lenders/loan officers got the past buyers’ loans to fund on time and make the home closing process a smooth experience for them and their past clients.
   3. Funding Loans with no delay on closings is a positive impression the real estate agent carries forward in factoring buyers’ lenders in a competitive real estate market with multiple buyers on the same property. The personal Call the Local Loan Officer makes to the listing agent touting the strong buyer and no worries on the loan funding is a big endorsement to give our buyers an edge against the competition.

Happy autumn. Let’s hope the coming season treats us all well!

Speaking of seasons, you may have noticed that in most cases the real estate market seems to have seasons. Traditionally, it’s slower in some months and busier in others. In fact, that might lead you to try to “time” the market and sell when it’s hot. But, be careful. Like the weather, the real estate market can be unpredictable. Yes, it is a hot market today and it may or should be active next spring – but, then again, it could be slow. There’s no way to know for sure.

In fact, the best criteria for deciding whether or not to sell your property isn’t as much the market as it is your personal wishes. If you want to move within the next couple of months, there are ways to make that happen. So, don’t let market conditions delay or derail your plans. Properties sell in all kinds of markets, and yours can too. When I go on my listing presentations, one question I get asked is how is it your home marketed on-line.

Did you know, 93% of people visit websites when searching for homes.

(National Association of Realtors)

Visiting a website and looking for the most lucrative offers available seems to be the best option for nearly all age groups. The older millennials (29-38) seem to be leading the pack again with a staggering 98% of internet-relying home buyers. Real estate industry statistics confirm predictions that the members of the so-called Silent Generation push in a different direction. While 72% of them turn to website searches, about 86% of old-timers prefer to consult with a real estate agent. Nearly half of all buyers (46%) get informed through yard signs, and slightly more than that go to open house events.

So with that said, with some help from Realty Executives, I dug up many of the websites that your home may show up on, along with Social Media sites.

Because Realty Executives is Nation and World-Wide, and have resources beyond our local Northern Arizona Association  of Realtors, the list of sites can be rather mind boggling.

If you have any thoughts of selling a home over the next 6 months, or even over the next year, even though at least here in Flagstaff we are headed into Winter, it is a good time.
The market has not changed and is continuing the trend of few homes on the market with more buyers on the market, making for a good time to sell.

About the Author:

In 1972, a group of Flagstaff citizens met in the basement of the Weatherford Hotel to form a non-profit community theater. After more than a decade performing in a variety of venues throughout Flagstaff, Theatrikos finally found its permanent home in 1989. Their mission is to be a leading arts organization in northern Arizona, offering high-quality live theatrical productions and developmental opportunities, utilizing a diverse base of writing and production talent reflecting the community at large.

Nearly five decades later, they now produce six MainStage productions for thousands of patrons annually, and they offer educational programming to adults and youth.

TheatriKids strives to foster a lifelong love of the performing arts in area youth ages 7-17. They teach theater skills—including acting, voice, dialects, character development, and basic stagecraft. Their young participants gain increased self-esteem and poise and are often inspired to continue their theater education. 

The TheatriKids program is open to all area youth year-round, and opportunities are provide to participate in full-scale productions as well as summer camps and workshops. Scholarships are available.

2020 has presented a unique set of challenges. However, half a dozen small theatres in Arizona and a few dozen throughout the country have, on a very limited bases, reopened.

Theatrikos implemented, tested and evaluated rigorous safety protocols with their October production of "Heisenberg." After extensive consideration, and given the successful implementation of these precautions, Theatrikos is pleased to announce that, on a very limited basis, they will also reopen starting with their Christmas show "A Tuna Christmas" running November 27 to December 20, 2020.

Safety Protocol Highlights

* 75% of seats blocked off.  So instead of 118, we will have only 32 socially distanced patrons in the audience.

* Audience wears mask at all times.  No exceptions.

* Controlled entrances and exits.

* Concessions closed (so no one is tempted to slip down their mask).

* All cast and crew regularly covid tested.

* Patron’s temperature taken upon admission.

* Ongoing diligent sanitization.

* Large cast shows like "Miracle on 34th Street" have been switched to small cast shows like the two person show "A Tuna Christmas."

* No musicals with passionately projecting singers.

* Actors stay 12’ away from first row of patrons.

* Our newly recruited safety coordinator enforces these safety protocols.

 Full safety protocols are available of their website: https://theatrikos.com/

"A Tuna Christmas" will also be live streamed. 

Theatre lives by the adage, "The show must go on." But more important than that is the safety of our Flagstaff community. The Theatrikos board of directors, with help from their safety coordinator, will continue to monitor the safety situation at theatres around Arizona, around the country, and the health situation in Coconino county. If needed they are prepared to shut down again at a moment's notice. 

Welcome back to the theatre.