Realty Executives Midwest
A recent survey revealed that many consumers believe there’s a housing bubble beginning to form. That feeling is understandable, as year-over-year home price appreciation is still in the double digits. However, this market is very different than it was during the housing crash 15 years ago. Here are four key reasons why today is nothing like the last time.
The affordability formula has three components: the price of the home, wages earned by the purchaser, and the mortgage rate available at the time. Conventional lending standards say a purchaser should not spend more than 28% of their gross income on their mortgage payment.
Fifteen years ago, prices were high, wages were low, and mortgage rates were over 6%. Today, prices are still high. Wages, however, have increased, and the mortgage rate, even after the recent spike, is still well below 6%. That means the average purchaser today pays less of their monthly income toward their mortgage payment than they did back then.
In the latest Affordability Report by ATTOM Data, Chief Product Officer Todd Teta addresses that exact point:
“The average wage earner can still afford the typical home across the U.S., but the financial comfort zone continues shrinking as home prices keep soaring and mortgage rates tick upward.”
Affordability isn’t as strong as it was last year, but it’s much better than it was during the boom. Here’s a chart showing that difference:
If costs were so prohibitive, how did so many homes sell during the housing boom?
During the housing bubble, it was much easier to get a mortgage than it is today. As an example, let’s review the number of mortgages granted to purchasers with credit scores under 620. According to credit.org, a credit score between 550-619 is considered poor. In defining those with a score below 620, they explain:
“Credit agencies consider consumers with credit delinquencies, account rejections, and little credit history as subprime borrowers due to their high credit risk.”
Buyers can still qualify for a mortgage with a credit score that low, but they’re considered riskier borrowers. Here’s a graph showing the mortgage volume issued to purchasers with a credit score less than 620 during the housing boom, and the subsequent volume in the 14 years since.
Mortgage standards are nothing like they were the last time. Purchasers that acquired a mortgage over the last decade are much more qualified. Let’s take a look at what that means going forward.
The most obvious difference is the number of homeowners that were facing foreclosure after the housing bubble burst. The Federal Reserve issues a report showing the number of consumers with a new foreclosure notice. Here are the numbers during the crash compared to today:
There’s no doubt the 2020 and 2021 numbers are impacted by the forbearance program, which was created to help homeowners facing uncertainty during the pandemic. However, there are fewer than 800,000 homeowners left in the program today, and most of those will be able to work out a repayment plan with their banks.
Rick Sharga, Executive Vice President of RealtyTrac, explains:
“The fact that foreclosure starts declined despite hundreds of thousands of borrowers exiting the CARES Act mortgage forbearance program over the last few months is very encouraging. It suggests that the ‘forbearance equals foreclosure’ narrative was incorrect.”
Why are there so few foreclosures now? Today, homeowners are equity rich, not tapped out.
In the run-up to the housing bubble, some homeowners were using their homes as personal ATM machines. Many immediately withdrew their equity once it built up. When home values began to fall, some homeowners found themselves in a negative equity situation where the amount they owed on their mortgage was greater than the value of their home. Some of those households decided to walk away from their homes, and that led to a rash of distressed property listings (foreclosures and short sales), which sold at huge discounts, thus lowering the value of other homes in the area.
Homeowners, however, have learned their lessons. Prices have risen nicely over the last few years, leading to over 40% of homes in the country having more than 50% equity. But owners have not been tapping into it like the last time, as evidenced by the fact that national tappable equity has increased to a record $9.9 trillion. With the average home equity now standing at $300,000, what happened last time won’t happen today.
As the latest Homeowner Equity Insights report from CoreLogic explains:
“Not only have equity gains helped homeowners more seamlessly transition out of forbearance and avoid a distressed sale, but they’ve also enabled many to continue building their wealth.”
There will be nowhere near the same number of foreclosures as we saw during the crash. So, what does that mean for the housing market?
The supply of inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued price appreciation. As the next graph shows, there were too many homes for sale from 2007 to 2010 (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to tumble. Today, there’s a shortage of inventory, which is causing the acceleration in home values to continue.
Inventory is nothing like the last time. Prices are rising because there’s a healthy demand for homeownership at the same time there’s a shortage of homes for sale.
If you’re worried that we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, the graphs above show data and insights to help alleviate your concerns.
Source: Keeping Current Matters
Realty Executives Midwest
1310 Plainfield Rd. Ste 2 | Darien, IL 60561
Office: 630-969-8880
E-Mail: experts@realtyexecutives.com
When you’re selling any item, you usually want to sell it for the greatest profit possible. That happens when there’s a strong demand and a limited supply for that item. In the real estate market, that time is right now. If you’re thinking of selling your house this year, here are two reasons why now’s the time to list.
A recent article in Inman News explains:
“Spring, the hottest time of year for homebuyers and sellers, has started early, according to economists. . . . ‘Home shopping season appears to already be in full swing!’”
And they aren’t the only ones saying buyers are already out in full force. That claim is backed up with data released last week by ShowingTime. The ShowingTime Showing Index tracks the average number of monthly buyer showings on active residential properties, which is a highly reliable leading indicator of current and future trends for buyer demand. The latest index reveals this December was the most active December in five years (see graph below):
As the data indicates, buyers are very active this winter. Last December saw even more showings than December of 2020, which was already a stronger-than-usual winter. And remember – you want to sell something when there’s a strong demand for that item. That time is now.
Each month, realtor.com releases data on the number of active residential real estate listings (listings currently for sale). Their most recent report reveals the latest monthly number is the lowest we’ve seen in any January since 2017 (see graph below):
And don’t forget, the best time to sell an item is when there’s a limited supply of it available. This graph clearly shows how extremely low housing supply is today.
According to the latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing-home sales totaled 6.12 million in 2021 – the highest annual level since 2006. This means the market is hot and homeowners are in a great place to sell now while sales are so strong.
NAR also reports available listings by calculating the current months’ supply of inventory. They explain:
“Months’ supply refers to the number of months it would take for the current inventory of homes on the market to sell given the current sales pace.”
The current 1.8-months’ supply is the lowest ever reported. Here are the December numbers over the last five years (see graph below):
The ratio of buyers to sellers favors homeowners right now to a greater degree than at any other time in history. Buyer demand is high, and supply is low. That gives sellers like you an incredible opportunity.
If you agree the best time to sell anything is when demand is high and supply is low, contact a local real estate professional to discuss listing your house today.
source: Keeping Current Matters
Realty Executives Midwest
1310 Plainfield Rd. Ste 2 | Darien, IL 60561
Office: 630-969-8880
E-Mail: experts@realtyexecutives.com
When you're selling your home, you want to do all you can to ensure it sells as quickly as possible and for the highest possible price. While the home itself will be the main attraction, it's still important to consider the small details that buyers will inevitably notice.
Related: Winter Home Staging Tips That Promote Safety and Sales
Some people choose to forego the staging process, thinking it's a waste of time, but it can greatly increase the number of offers you receive. Here are four approaches to take that'll make your home look great when potential buyers come through:
The first thing you want to focus on when staging your home is to make sure to remove any personal affects. Pictures, kids' drawings, certificates or anything else that might identify you needs to be taken down. While there are safety benefits to taking this step, the main reason you want to depersonalize your home is so that any potential buyers can visualize themselves living in your home. If you can capture their imagination, you've already won half the battle.
Although you may have a very bold decorating personality, it might be best to mute that somewhat when you're trying to sell your home. Again, buyers want to be able to visualize themselves living in your home, but if your decor is too far from what they enjoy, you might cause them to miss the underlying beauty of your home. This isn't to say, of course, that you can't have a few fun pops of color throughout your home. Instead, just make sure that everything matches and isn't too distracting.
When REALTORS® show a home, it makes a world of difference if they can easily explain what a room can be used for. That's why it's important to simplify your decor as much as possible. Try to have only a few main pieces of furniture in each room, and make sure to remove any clutter that makes your home look smaller. This will help potential buyers "catch the vision" of how they can use certain rooms as they tour your home.
Staging a home starts with the exterior. An attractive exterior will create a strong first impression, making it easier for buyers to overlook other small flaws in your home. Try to coordinate your landscaping with the season, having mums in the fall, flowering plants in the spring and summer, as well as simple, tidy landscaping in the winter.
If you're having trouble figuring out how best to stage your home, it's worth it to ask an expert. Even a few simple tips can help you significantly increase the perceived value of your home. Selling a home is a major financial transaction, so make sure that you don't leave this transaction to chance!
Source: RisMedia's Housecall
Realty Executives Midwest
1310 Plainfield Rd. Ste 2 | Darien, IL 60561
Office: 630-969-8880
E-Mail: experts@realtyexecutives.com
As you plan out your goals for the year, moving up to your dream home may top the list. But, how do you know when to make your move? You want to time it just right so you can get the most out of the sale of your current house. You also want to know you’re making a good investment when you buy your new home. What you may not realize is, that opportunity to get the best of both worlds is already here.
You don’t want to wait until spring to spring into action. The current market conditions make this winter an ideal time to move. Here’s why.
Today’s limited supply of houses for sale is putting sellers in the driver’s seat. There are far more buyers in the market than there are homes available, and that means buyers are eagerly waiting for your house. Listing your house now makes it the center of attention. As a seller, that means when it’s priced correctly, you can expect it to sell quickly and get multiple strong offers this season. Just remember, experts project more inventory will come to market as we move through the winter months. The realtor.com 2022 forecast says this:
“After years of declining, the inventory of homes for sale is finally expected to rebound from all-time lows.”
Selling now may help you maximize the return on your investment before your house has to face more competition from other sellers.
Current homeowners are sitting on record amounts of equity thanks to today’s home price appreciation. According to the latest report from CoreLogic, the average homeowner gained $56,700 in equity over the past 12 months.
That much equity can open doors for you to make a move. If you’ve been holding off on selling because you’re worried about how rising prices will impact your own home search, rest assured your equity can help fuel your next move. It may be just what you need to cover a large portion – if not all – of the down payment on your next purchase.
In January of last year, mortgage rates hit the lowest point ever recorded. Today, rates are starting to rise, but that doesn’t mean you’ve missed out on locking in a low rate. Current mortgage rates are still far below what they’ve been in recent decades:
Even with mortgage rates rising above 3%, they’re still worth taking advantage of. You just want to do so sooner rather than later. Experts are projecting rates will continue to rise throughout this year, and when they do, it’ll cost you more to purchase your next home.
According to industry leaders, home prices will also continue appreciating this year. While experts are forecasting more moderate home price growth than last year, it’s important to note prices will still be moving in an upward direction throughout 2022.
What does that mean for you? If you’re selling so you can move into a bigger home or downsize to the home of your dreams, you want to consider moving now before rates and prices rise further. If you’re ready, you have an opportunity to get ahead of the curve by purchasing your next home before rates and prices climb higher.
If you’re considering selling to move up or downsize, this may be your moment, especially with today’s low mortgage rates and limited inventory. Reach out to a local real estate professional today to get set up for homebuying success this year.
Source: Keeping Current Matters
Realty Executives Midwest
1310 Plainfield Rd. Ste 2 | Darien, IL 60561
Office: 630-969-8880
E-Mail: experts@realtyexecutives.com
After almost two years of double-digit increases, many experts thought home price appreciation would decelerate or happen at a slower pace in the last quarter of 2021. However, the latest Home Price Insights Report from CoreLogic indicates while prices may have plateaued, appreciation has definitely not slowed. The following graph shows year-over-year appreciation throughout 2021. December data has not yet been released.
As the graph shows, appreciation has remained steady at around 18% over the last five months.
In addition, the latest S&P Case-Shiller Price Index and the FHFA Price Index show a slight deceleration from the same time last year – it’s just not at the level that was expected. However, they also both indicate there’s continued strong price growth throughout the country. FHFA reports all nine regions of the country still experienced double-digit appreciation. The Case-Shiller 20-City Index reveals all 20 metros had double-digit appreciation.
Experts had projected the supply of housing inventory would increase in the last half of 2021 and buyer demand would decrease, as it historically does later in the year. Since all pricing is subject to supply and demand, it seemed that appreciation would wane under those conditions.
Buyer demand, however, did not slow as much as expected, and the number of listings available for sale dropped instead of improved. The graph below uses data from realtor.com to show the number of available listings for sale each month, including the decline in listings at the end of the year.
Here are three reasons why the number of active listings didn’t increase as expected:
1. There hasn’t been a surge of foreclosures as the forbearance program comes to an end.
2. New construction slowed considerably because of supply chain challenges.
3. Many believed more sellers would put their houses on the market once the concerns about the pandemic began to ease. However, those concerns have not yet disappeared. A recent article published by com explains:
“Before the omicron variant of COVID-19 appeared on the scene, the 2021 housing market was rebounding healthily from previous waves of the pandemic and turned downright bullish as the end of the year approached. . . . And then the new omicron strain hit in November, followed by a December dip in new listings. Was this sudden drop due to omicron, or just the typical holiday season lull?”
No one knows for sure, but it does seem possible.
Home price appreciation might slow (or decelerate) in 2022. However, based on supply and demand, you shouldn’t expect the deceleration to be swift or deep.
Source: Keeping Current Matters
Realty Executives Midwest
1310 Plainfield Rd. Ste 2 | Darien, IL 60561
Office: 630-969-8880
E-Mail: experts@realtyexecutives.com
Realty Executives agents are real estate experts. They have the education and expertise you need to navigate through the process of buying or selling a home. From listing at the right price to making the best offer, our Executives have witnessed the best - and most regrettable - decisions homeowners and homebuyers can make. Every day, they are immersed in every aspect of real estate that includes comparable home price analysis, property surveys, credit reports, open houses, HOA agreements, lenders, title companies, homeowners’ insurance, walk-throughs, terms of sale or purchase, repairs, concessions and closing documents. Let our accomplished Executives help navigate you through the process of buying or selling a home.
