Have you ever walked into a store, and when you were approached by a sales rep who asked, “Can I help you find your size?” you had to explain, “Oh, I’m just looking”?

Maybe you even felt a little guilty that you were not intending to buy anything.

Well, the same thing can happen in real estate. For example, you might happen to drive through a neighborhood, find that you like the area, see a couple of For Sale signs, and think, “I wonder how much it would cost to get into this neighborhood?”

That happens all the time, even to those who aren’t thinking about moving.

If you get curious about a neighborhood, please don’t hesitate to ask us about it. We'd be happy to answer your questions about the area and give you a ballpark of what a typical home costs there.

When it comes to real estate, it’s smart to have a sense of what the market is doing and what homes are selling for in areas you like. That way, if you ever do decide to move, you’ll have a head start!

How to Stomach the Interest Rate Roller Coaster

By Chris Hallows | Sr. Mortgage Advisor at Wallick & Volk Mortgage

Just like the twist and turns of your favorite theme park thrill, the mortgage interest rate market is giving plenty of folks a lot to stomach right now!

Inflation is the big player pushing rates up and as the FED works to raise their funds rate that could help mortgage rates stabilize as inflation reduces but this is easier said than done. The Fed just finished their March meeting this week and though the .25% rate hike on the funds rate should be a positive thing for mortgage rates, mortgage markets are nervous about the statement that they will be talking about ‘balance sheet reduction’ in the coming months. Oversimplified, interest rates reached historic 50-70 year lows due to billions of dollars of FED subsidy via the COVID relief act as part of economic stimulus and that is sitting on the FED balance sheet – slowing, stopping or reversing that subsidy are all things that make mortgage rates push upwards. These factors coupled with geopolitical conflicts and economic concerns certainly set the stage for high mortgage rate volatility this year. Will this year be the best time to buy a home - no but is it a terrible time? I would argue absolutely not. We have to remember the average interest rate from 2000-2010 National on a 30 yr fixed was 6.29% and the average rate from 2010-2020 was 4.09%. That makes the current national average of 4.375% not look as terrible as some may think. If you or someone you know got a rate in the 2’s or even 3’s in the last two years you basically won the mortgage lottery as a global pandemic and billions of dollars of subsidy created a one time event where you could lock up a 15-30 yr fixed debt at what folks used to do 5 year car loans for!

The hopeful take away is see the big picture through this roller coaster, let it scare off other buyers so you can win the bids in this competitive, low inventory market and have confidence that rates are truly good – consult with us or other local mortgage professionals that monitor rates daily to customize your plan for home ownership!

Now to some Bikepacking....

In late 2020, a year before we decided to move into semi-retirement, we asked, what will we do with our time??    In my case, as you have read in our past newsletters, I enjoy the outdoors:  hiking, backpacking, fishing and some travel to remote locations. So what’s next?    One of the newer fastest growing outdoor adventure sports is Bikepacking.  It’s a concept very similar to Backpacking, where you head out for days on end, with all your gear on your back to hike and camp.

Bikepacking is similar, you just put all your gear in assorted bags on your bike and head out for days on end. 

In Biking, you have two main categories, Biketouring or Bikepacking.  The difference you ask?

Before I move to much further, you will see I inserted some pictures of our latest ride from the beginning of March. We had five of us on this trip, Rog from Columbus Ohio, Jon from Port Angeles Washington, David from Port Townsend Washington and Kathy from Austin Texas.  Only Jon and Rog had ridden together, I had not ridden with any of the group, but turned out we all rode so well together, we are looking for other opportunities.

Added note, those colored stretch straps on the front blue bags are Voile Straps, some of the best there are and super handy, well worth having around for assorted things.

Biketouring is, for the most part, exclusively on paved roads, whereas Bikepacking is on a combination of gravel roads and paths, to single track trails and some paved paths, though the paved portion can be very limited. 

Want to learn more?  A site to browse would be Bikepacking.com, which is my go-to site to locate defined routes in Arizona, neighboring states, or across the world.  They even offer answers to gear questions.

As I started to research Bikepacking I found thousands of established routes not only here in the United States but all over the world.  Here in Arizona, we have the Sky Island routes (East and West) out of Patagonia, which spans about 305 miles, while a trip to the Craters and Cinder Cone around Flagstaff is around 185 miles.  Routes can be as little as 20 miles to as long or longer than the Western Wildland Route, which is 2700 miles stretching from Mexico to Canada and could take 2 months to ride.   

You may have numerous questions: do we camp overnight, how many miles we will ride in a day, to what the heck do we do with all our gear, also known as a ‘Kit’ in the biking world.   

Let's start with the last question first, our Kit. 

This includes our tent, sleeping bag, sleeping pad, assorted clothes, food, water and bike repair tools.  The Kit is placed strategically on the bike; few riders carry much more that a small day pack on their backs to carry water or clothes; most of the weight is on the bike. On the front bags, which hang off the handlebars, you will find my tent and sleeping bag.  You should carry your heaviest items in the center frame bag, so water in my case.

You might also carry a bag off the back of your seat, which is where I carry my food or panniers that are mounted on both sides of my rear tires. Most the time I carry bags on my front forks (the Blue Bags) which can include water, although in my case I usually carry clothes and tools there. 

The next question, how may miles a day?  

A lot of this depends on the terrain you are riding. If we are fortunate enough to ride smooth gravel intermixed with some paved roads, we can ride 45 miles plus.  Extreme riders will bike upwards of 70 to 100 miles a day. In our recent Sky Island trip, East and West loops we ranged from 18 miles on a short day to 46 miles on a long day. The difference as mentioned above is mainly the road or trail conditions and elevation gains and how much Hike-a-Bike you are doing.   

So, what is ‘Hike-a-Bike’ you ask? Aren’t you riding a bike? 

We do try to ride all parts of the route, but at times the uphill or even downhill grades are so steep, the terrain is so rough, that riding is both impractical and/or dangerous and takes more energy than just getting off your bike and pushing. This can also be strenuous since all that gear, we talked about can push your total weight of your bike up and over 50-60 lbs.  That’s a lot of weight!
   
The last question was, do we camp overnight?
  
Yes, for the most part we camp at predetermined spots. I say for the ‘most part’ because we travel so many more miles in a day compared to backpacking at 10 to 15 miles on average and we are on gravel roads of some sort that go through small towns, so we have more options. For instance, again on the Sky Island East loop, as we approached Green Valley from the east, a storm was approaching from the southwest bringing cold 40 mile an hour head winds, with rain and snow. So, we ducked into a motel that night.  The next day it was clear with just a little snow on the ground, but not enough to deter us from riding that day.   

We finished the two Sky Island Loops, East and West, just last week, and I have put a few of those pictures in this newsletter. We met Sarah Swallow at the Appleton-Whittle Research Ranch of Audubon, who mapped out these rides on the 2nd day of our East loop. We found out rather fast what is easy for some is not so for the rest of us. When we looked at Sarah’s pictures and description of the East loop, we said this will be great, and it was, but there was a lot more ups and downs, and hike-a-bike than we expected.   Look forward riding with the group again in the near future. Jon is doing the Western Wildland Route this spring and summer; I may join him on the New Mexico portion? Just depends on timing.

Combined the two loops are a little over 300 miles and I hope to write about these adventures in future issues of the newsletter.

The next adventures, hike up in Utah, then a Rambler Bikepack out of Manti Utah the first of August.

Jeff Ross * Renee Gaun Your 1st Choice in Real Estate® Your Team for Success 928-607-5556  Jeff Jeff@AllFlagstaffHomes.com 928-606-6232 Renee Homes@ReneeGaun.com www.AllFlagstaffHomes.com

15 E. Cherry Ave Flagstaff, AZ. 86001

What do you do when you have a question, and you want to find a quick answer? Chances are, you do what we all do! You Google it.

There’s nothing wrong with that. However, I’m sure you’ll agree, it’s not easy to sift through all the information you get from a search to find an answer that’s accurate, up-to-date, and relevant to your situation.

After all, you don’t want to end up acting on bad information.

That’s where we can help.

You see, when it comes to real estate, you want to make sure you get the most accurate information possible, based on the most up-to-date data that pertains to this local market.

We can provide that.

But, more than just solid information, we can also give you insights that make that information relevant to you. For example, we can tell you approximately how much your home would likely sell for today.

So, if you need the best information, contact either of us, We would be happy to help.

An Overview of 2021 and What's to Come

Well, it was an interesting year in Real Estate in Flagstaff and Northern Arizona in 2021 and as we progress into 2022, the market has not changed.

All through 2021 we were plagued by extremely low inventory of homes, and a very strong buyer base. These two factors contributed to a median price increase across all types of homes at 20.6% increase and a median price of $540,000. You will see all the stats for individual home types in the charge below. Cash sales rose to 27.56% of all homes, up from 19.86% in 2010. Days on Market dropped from 92 days in 2020 to 52 days in 2021 and the average per sq. ft. price skyrocketed above $310.40 for 2021, up from $250.46 in 2020, a figure we never saw coming.

Now to some, this housing price increase is reminiscent to the early 2000’s which then brought on the housing crash in 2009’ish.
BUT HONESTLY, today and 2009 are as different as an apple and orange. 

Back to 2009, we had loan practices that allow folks to refinance their homes and use that money for most anything, along with very loose qualification practices, driving a pricing frenzy that drove up pricing of homes. On top of this, we had an overabundance of homes on the market. As an example, we had as many as 500-700 homes on the market, and as few as 50 buyers. We had so many homes, so few buyers and the sellers had to sell for assorted reasons, so prices dropped, along the way those sellers had refinanced homes at higher values to draw out the cash from this you saw and remember the housing crash and rise in foreclosures. Before we move forward, yes, we continue to have some type of Foreclosures but as the slide to the right indicates, they will be extremely rare.

Move to today, the situation has reversed. As I write this article on Wednesday Feb 16th, we had only 47 homes of all types on the market in the General Flagstaff area. We should have 300-500 homes on the market. With that said, we have as many 500 buyers out there waiting to find the right home, and as last year showed, 28% of those are cash, so they are not hindered by the loan and appraisal process, so offer prices are coming in some cases well above asking list price. It is seldom we see an offer and sold price that is at list or below. 

I bring this up because the comment we are getting throughout the Real Estate industry, ‘The Bubble will Burst’. Well it could happen, but the cause will be different, 2009 it was mainly caused by a huge number of homes and a slim number of buyers. Today reverse that, with very few homes and very large number of buyers. So, what can cause a dramatic decrease in housing?  Great question, in today’s market, more than likely something that causes loss of jobs, thus those losing their jobs need to sell their homes. At present our economy may not be showing any signs of that type of weakness. We are back to ‘Time will Tell’.

Since we are in uncharted territory, few know what will happen in 2022.
We have lots of builders out there at full capacity, with new developments on the books. Is it enough? Are there jobs to sustain today’s prices? Or will buyers slowly move to the outskirts of Flagstaff: Bellemont, Parks, Williams to the west, or Winslow to the East, or even Munds Park and further, to the South?

What we do know today, Sellers You are in one of the strongest markets to sell with huge demand for your home, we do not know how long this will last. Talk to your experienced Real Estate professional to make sure the time is right for you and your family. Today more than ever, you will lean on that experienced Real Estate agent to wade through the many offers, along with the confusing and complex contingences written into the offers by the buyer's agents to sway your decision.  Buyers Be patient, find an experienced Real Estate Professional that can guide you through today’s market - a professional that is there for you and will not leave anything to chance.

About the Authors:

Jeff Ross * Renee Gaun Your 1st Choice in Real Estate® Your Team for Success 928-607-5556  Jeff Jeff@AllFlagstaffHomes.com 928-606-6232 Renee Homes@ReneeGaun.com www.AllFlagstaffHomes.com

15 E. Cherry Ave Flagstaff, AZ. 86001

Flagstaff offers plenty of ways to get around – including by bus, train, car and plane – with the latter seeing dramatic changes in 2019.

Flagstaff’s Pulliam Airport has added service to Denver through United Airlines and to Dallas through American Airlines, boosting the number of passengers boarding flights to record levels. The airport has nine commercial flights a day – two to Denver on United Airlines, five to Phoenix and two to Dallas on American Airlines.

“The business community is responding positively to the new routes,” said Barney Helmick, director of the Pulliam Airport.

“This year, more and more business leaders tell us they are switching from Phoenix to the Flagstaff Airport,” Helmick said. “The new routes can get them to and from the multiple markets they travel to.”

The flights have averaged about 80 percent capacity for both airlines, which are “very good numbers for new routes and carriers,” Helmick said.

Officials with the city, including airport leaders, will continue to work with the airlines to provide more destinations, especially on the West Coast.

“Our target is to add San Francisco and Los Angeles to the current routes,” Helmick said.

Traveling by rail is another popular way to travel in and out of Flagstaff.

Flagstaff’s train station has been in the community since 1926, when it was built by the Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe Railway. It is in the heart of downtown on Historic Route 66 near lodging, shopping and dining. It is also home to the city’s visitor center.

The station includes an Amtrak ticket office, a gift shop, information and short-term and long-term parking. Amtrak’s Southwest Chief serves the area, and it is one of the most scenic routes in the country. It runs through Flagstaff twice a day on its route between Chicago and Los Angeles.

Also, if you take Amtrak to Flagstaff, it’s possible to get a bus connection to Williams to access the Grand Canyon Railway to the South Rim of the Grand Canyon.

One popular way to get around Arizona is through Groome Transportation, formerly known as the Arizona Shuttle.

Groome provides service between Flagstaff and Phoenix, the Grand Canyon and Sedona. The Sedona service is seasonal, operating from May through October.

Customers can enjoy first-come, first-serve complimentary parking to up to 14 days at 2646 E. Huntington Dr. in Flagstaff. Reservations are required for the Sedona route and are strongly encouraged for other destinations, although it’s still possible to get a seat without advance notice.

For home pick/drop-off service, call (920) 282-2066 by 6 p.m. the night before scheduled travel to reserve it. Office hours are 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. seven days a week.

Another shuttle option is Inspire Shuttle, which is available seven days a week for service to/from Sedona and Phoenix. Call (928) 699-4228 or visit www.inspireshuttle.com.

A couple of bus lines serve Flagstaff:

• Mountain Line is Flagstaff’s award-winning public transportation system. Eight routes are offered throughout the city, connecting travelers to top attractions. The buses are primarily hybrid-electric. Call (928) 779-6624 or visit mountainline.az.gov.
• Greyhound Bus Lines has its station at 880 E. Butler Avenue.

The most likely ways to arrive by care are via Interstates 40 and 17, which connect Flagstaff to Dallas, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Albuquerque, El Paso, San Diego, Phoenix and Tucson. The Grand Canyon is nearby via Highway 180.

Poised high above the deep, narrow gorge of the Little Colorado River—running thousands of feet below—a swayback suspension bridge serves as a reminder of a gap long ago bridged—not only geographically but culturally, as well.

Driving 65 miles per hour across the modern-day pavement, one might glance at that bridge, forgetting that this arid, rocky region—scarce of vegetation—was once traversed on foot or horseback by the original American peoples. To the Navajo and Hopi, these lands were theirs; the bridge provided them a straightforward route over the precarious gorge.

Five years following the bridge’s construction—erected in 1911, thirty-two miles from what is now the South Rim of Grand Canyon National Park—Texas brothers Hubert and C.D. Richardson claimed over 100 acres on the south side of the gorge. They constructed a meager, tin-roof building and in 1916 opened the Little Colorado Trading Post. Later renamed Cameron Trading Post, honoring Ralph H. Cameron, the post best served the indigenous neighbor. Crossing the 660-foot-long bridge, the Navajo and Hopi peoples used Cameron’s to barter blankets, wool, and livestock for dry goods.

In visiting Cameron Trading Post, we are invited to remember the rich history of this area and to realize the old ways that connected people and cultures in a rare exchange of diversity and respect.

The Richardson brothers played a crucial role in the lives of their Native friends. Treated like family, they housed and fed local tribes at the post, for the journey to and from was arduous. Understanding Native dialects and traditional customs, the brothers shared the new American laws and social systems with the tribespeople.

The post grew over time. Hogans were built to accommodate Native guests, and in 1928, Hubert built the Klo-a-chee-kin (Little Red House) Hotel. Additions were created over time, connecting the original structures with new.

In 2016, Cameron celebrated its Centennial. What began as a shack in 1916, Cameron Trading Post boasts a magnificent Native American art gallery, a 15,000 square foot gift shop, a market, a restaurant, a post office, gas station, an R.V. park, a 66-room hotel and the stunning Sandstone garden—planted in the 1930s.

Today, Cameron is owned and operated by father and son, Joe and Josh Atkinson. Joe purchased the lease from Gilbert Ortega in 1977 and the trading post from Standard Oil in 1983. Like their predecessors, the Atkinson’s have an intimate history with the Navajo, a personal connection to the post, and trading with Native Americans. Joe, fluent in Navajo, is the great-nephew of C.D. Richardson. Josh Atkinson—the present Naat’áanii, or leader—began working at the post when he was thirteen. Josh’s grandmother was an educator and taught Navajo children, and his great-grandmother was a trader who—with her bible, her gun, and a few spare tires—traveled to different posts in her Cadillac.

Trading families and local-area ranchers assisted in protecting their Navajo communities and endeavored to help Natives preserve their culture and traditions. Sheep, for example were sacred to the Navajo.

Sheep provided the tribe sustenance and offered wool to the exceptionally accomplished Navajo weavers.

In the early 1900s, traders like J.B. Moore and C.N. Cotton crafted catalogs featuring Native American designs intending to sell them back east, where a romantic interest in western culture bloomed. For hundreds of years, Churra wool was the material for Navajo blankets and rugs. Churra sheep, later renamed Churro, were brought to North America by conquistadors in the 1600s. Navajo and Hopi peoples acquired Churro through trade. For a Churro blanket in the 1800s, one might trade two horses and a wife. In later times, blankets and rugs sold by the pound. The Navajo then added dirt to the wool to increase their work’s value.

Around the 1930s, environmentalists believed overgrazing was a problem that would result in flooding and landslides. Through government-sponsored flock reductions, herds were slaughtered, almost to the edge of extinction. The government forbade the tribe to eat the meat or utilize the wool; the tribe was traumatized. News of this spread fast. As tribes began hiding their sheep in caves, ranchers like Josh’s great-grandfather—whose Star Lake ranch was on the eastern side of the reservation—sheltered thousands of sheep to save them from certain death. When things settled, the sheep were returned to the tribe. Although the Churros are no longer considered endangered, their breed is still rare. That Churro blanket—once traded for two horses and a wife—would today sell for as much as $250,000.

…The trading post building hosts the gift shop where over 20 tribes have their works exhibited. Herein one will find rugs, potter, baskets, turquoise jewelry, kachinas, sculpture, totems, stone carvings, and drums.

Overlooking the Little Colorado River Gorge and revolving around a massive stone fireplace bordered by large picture windows, guests enjoy spectacular views inside and out. The Cameron Grand Canyon Restaurant—surrounded by history and ornamented with Native American artwork—offers a delicious menu featuring local, Mexican, and American food. Located behind the restaurant sits an old barn once used to shear Navajo sheep.

Of Cameron’s 145 employees, most are Navajo with a few Hopi, Apache, and Bilagáa-na, or white man. “It’s a family-for-family business,” Josh Atkinson explained. “Every decision I make affects all of these families.”

What began over a century ago—a meager post for local traders—Cameron Trading Post now welcomes visitors from all over the world. Standing as an icon of ancient times, Cameron embodies the traditions of the Navajo Nation. It reveals a fascinating story of the Bilagáa-na learning to value the original Americans. It shares a history of the interdependent relationships between the indigenous peoples and the pioneers that settled here. Cameron holds the legend and lore of diverse cultures, blending, defending, and sharing a way of life and survival in a harsh environment. And like those indigenous peoples who crossed the bridge and walked through its doors, Cameron’s is one of the last of its kind.

Taken from story written by River Ann Polinard

Published in Essential, essentials for the Flagstaff lifestyle, Summer/Fall 2021 edition, Vol. 1.2

A lot of people look forward to the new year because it’s like starting a new chapter in a book. You’re about to finish one chapter and — on New Year’s Day — you’ll be eager to begin another.

Looking at it another way, that new chapter is full of blank pages – ready for you to write your own story.

In fact, you may have several hopes and dreams for 2022 and maybe some ambitious goals, too. Whatever your plans, we want you to know that you can reach out to us anytime you need real estate advice or help.

We will also continue to keep you up-to-date on the latest real estate news and insights. So, anytime you have questions, contact us. We can get you the answers you need.

If we don’t get a chance to chat before the year’s end, let me take this opportunity to say, “Thank you for the privilege of staying in touch with you. The blank pages of your 2022 chapter await. We hope you fill them with wonderful experiences!”

A Quick Market Note...

These days most conversations about Real Estate involve the topic of how much cash has entered the market over the last 18 months.  With very low days on market and homes getting snatched up in 48 hours or less, many felt that it started to dominate. 

Below is a chart noting the percentage of cash sales recorded in the MLS for Northern Arizona Association of Realtors.

As of December 9th there were a total of 2278 home sales and of those 27.35% closed with cash.  Yes, the market has been competitive but we expected these numbers to be much higher.  Hang in there with us, buying a home is entirely possible and we're here to make it happen. 

About the Authors: