Three Great Reasons to Buy an Arizona Home Now

*If you buy now, many lenders are offering programs that allow you to refinance with little to no cost when rates do drop. And if rates do rise, there is a cost to waiting.

*Secondly, most homeowners today are sitting on major equity. Based on the continued growth of the Valley and lack of houses for sale, you can expect prices to shift up again in the near future.

*Lastly, we may actually be at the bottom of the market, which is always a good time to buy.

Luxury Home Marketing Update

     Understanding real estate cycles are important as they provide reliable information about how and when to buy and sell. We have moved out of 2 and ½ years of the most dynamic luxury real estate markets, with experts now speaking of ‘correction’ rather than ‘crash.’  Yep, that's Bella as a kid at a Barrett-Jackson event! (No, she didn't buy the car)

      While some markets are being affected by downward pressure on prices, others are still reporting increases. This disparity is seen when looking at markets that hold the opportunity for either more affordability, or potential price growth

     It is predicted that the millennial generation in 2023 will become a strong investor in the entry level luxury real estate market, while the mass affluent will continue to increase demand for second and third homes.

     The very high net worth are looking for homes that offer more than just luxury. Lifestyle has become their driver, and homes that offer unique experiences, access to adventure and are filled with high-end amenities are more their concern than worries about higher interest rates.

     Download the full Luxury Home Marketing Report here.

_{One thing remains constant and is even more true than ever: Your Home Equity is a significant asset in your portfolio and you deserve expert guidance.  Is Now a Good Time to Buy or Sell a Home? Call Denise 602-980-0737, celebrating a near 40 year career in Metro-Phoenix Real Estate.}    

According to Goldman Sachs, the U.S. housing market may have already hit bottom. Download Article. Reported by the New York Times February 6, 2023.  "Instead of U.S. home prices falling 6.1% in 2023, which was their Jan. 10 prediction, researchers at the investment bank now expect national home prices to end 2023 down just 2.6%."

2023 Market Predictions 

Greater Phoenix now Balanced

We are now entering the height of the Valley's buyer season with a continued shortage of inventory. Some markets are still hot, this depends on the price point and neighborhood. Owner's who have owned for two years or longer are still sitting in an excellent equity position, and over 65% of active listings were purchased more than 2 years ago.

Luxury Lull

All indicators point to a lull, rather than a crash, as the affluent start to reevaluate their long-term goals. Expect to see slower returns on investment, as buyers and sellers remain hesitant until the economy stablizeds; a continued movement to more affordable markets and watch climate change play an important role in where the affluent choose to purchase homes. Current Luxury Market National Report.

A real estate 'reckoning is at hand' 

According to Inman, "Economists and other housing experts predict the market will be more balanced among both buyers and sellers. Home prices won't change much while mortgage interest rates will continue to drop."

 _{One thing remains constant and is even more true than ever: Your Home Equity is a significant asset in your portfolio and you deserve expert guidance.  Is Now a Good Time to Buy or Sell a Home? Call Denise 602-980-0737, celebrating a near 40 year career in Metro-Phoenix Real Estate.}    

The Emperor is Naked

Do you remember when the little boy yelled, “The Emperor has on no clothes!”?  Well, if you listen to current media coverage of  the housing market, you’ll hear detailed descriptions of the finest gold silk you have ever seen. But even the slightest scrutiny will reveal that the man is naked and the headlines are hype.

Phoenix Tops the Nation in List Price Reductions

The top story making my phone ring this week is Phoenix leads the nation in list price reductions.  Keep in mind this refers to the number of homes that have reduced their price, not the amount of reduction. In most cases the number was artificial to start with. But let’s be real, the number is based on a prior number of ZERO, since there were zero price reductions for the last two years, so of course any reductions would look like a huge jump.

Prices hit their Peak this Summer

Over the last two years, buyers faced fierce competition. A shortage of inventory and historically low interest rates provided Sellers with offers above asking price immediately. This phenomenon obviously encouraged other Sellers to ask more than what they typically would have been happy with in a normal market, selling for normal reasons like downsizing or moving or illness of a family member.  It also encouraged Sellers who really didn’t care if they sold, to join the party, willing to sell if they got a high enough price. Once they started to get excited about a move, many decided to get realistic in order to make it happen, others took their homes off the market and turned their attention to the holidays.

Home Prices are Not Expected to Crash

According to the National Association of Realtors, top experts don’t believe home prices will crash anything like they did in 2008. Keep in mind, anyone who has owned a home for two years most likely has a lot of equity, that was the opposite case in 2008. Experts believe that home prices will moderate at various levels depending on the local market and the supply and demand in that area. That’s why some experts are calling for slight appreciation. However, even the worst case of 5.1% hardly makes a dent in the 40-90% appreciation of the last two years.

Mortgage Rates will Come Back Down

While mortgage rates have risen dramatically this year, the rapid increases we’ve seen have moderated in recent weeks as early signs hint that inflation may be easing slightly. Where they’ll go from here largely depends on what happens next with inflation. If inflation does truly begin to cool, mortgage rates may come down as a result.

When that happens, expect more buyers to jump back into the market. For you, that means you’ll once again face more competition. Buying your house now before more buyers reenter the market could help you get one step ahead. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for NAR, says:  “The upcoming months should see a return of buyers, as mortgage rates appear to have already peaked and have been coming down since mid-November.”   When mortgage rates come down, those waiting on the sidelines will jump back in. Your advantage is getting in before they do.

Listen to the Experts

So, before you repeat the news anchors, take a few minutes to learn from the experts. Here are a couple good reports and predictions for the 2023 Housing Market.

 Have a great holiday! Warmly, Denise van den Bossche

Celebrating nearly 40 years in the Arizona Real Estate Market

Silent Nights in the Housing Market

December 2022 is anticipated to be one of the quietest on record in terms of Phoenix Metro housing sales. The biggest change from last month is that supply has changed direction and is now declining fairly rapidly. Almost 7% fewer active listings than a month ago means sellers have less competition.

Interest Rates

Mortgage interest rates have stabilized and if they were to fall meaningfully, demand might recover once the new year is well underway. However, no-one can really predict the next interest rate move with any confidence. For now we anticipate one of the quietest Decembers on record with few contracts signings, few closings and few new sellers lacing their homes on the market. -The Cromford Report Friday 12/3/22. Call me for specifics on your neighborhood.

Phoenix Metro Fastest Growing 5th Year in a Row

According to the City of Phoenix, the Valley tops the nation in population growth for the fifth year in a row. The Valley includes dozens of communities, townships and villages and an extremely efficient freeway system. I relocated here in 1982 for graduate school at ASU when the Valley was just 1.5 Million, and still find that it retains its "small town" charm. The communities all blend together and you may eat at a restaurant in Scottsdale, and have coffee across the street in Tempe.

Arizona best place to find deals in real estate

According to a Realtor.com report published December 5, Arizona tops the list of places sellers are slashing prices. In defining the markets that ranked in the study, “By and large, they offer an ideal combination of quality of life and outdoor amenities." Arizona led the list with price reductions on 40.4% of active listings. Having participated in this market for several decades, I believe 90% of these reductions are sellers who have been purposely investing in homes to flip in order to take advantage of the last two years of appreciation. Also included are sellers who really don’t care if they sell or not but would sell “for the right price,” and sellers who want to pocket what their neighbors did at the height of the market frenzy. The last two years has been very different than a normal market when sellers need to relocate due to changes in lifestyle or family needs.

Taiwan Semiconductor to Announce Second Phoenix Factory

According to azcentral on December 6, Taiwan Semiconductor, already under construction and dramatically changing the housing market in the northwest Valley, plans to expand their presence here. This will triple the company’s stake in Arizona from an original estimate of $12 billion to $40 billion. This will more than double the number of permanent jobs at the TSMC facility to 4,500. That is in addition to an estimated 10,000 construction jobs.

Other corporations investing in Arizona include a $20 billion expansion at intel’s Chandler campus, a $1.2 billion lithium-ion battery factory in Buckeye and a $100 million Corning factory in Gilbert.

_{One thing remains constant and is even more true than ever: Your Home Equity is a significant asset in your portfolio and you deserve expert guidance.  Is Now a Good Time to Buy or Sell a Home? Call Denise 602-980-0737, celebrating a near 40 year career in Metro-Phoenix Real Estate.}