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Denise van den Bossche

Denise van den Bossche

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Why the Housing Market will Not Crash. September 2021

(Published on - 9/7/2021 8:57:43 PM)

Buyer Beware!

Caveat Emptor Businessman with ulterior motives

Caveat emptor; Latin for "let the buyer beware," more true than ever. In this 3 minute video we look at some of the hyped up marketing campaigns that are starting to feel reminiscent of the days leading up to the crash of 2008. 

 

The Housing Market is Cooling Down this Fall

Is this Housing Market Sustainable? DeniseVDB

According to Realtor.com, experts are expecting the housing market to shift to something closer to normal this fall, anticipating more homes going on the market to slow down the price increases and bidding wars we have seen this past year. CNN posted on 8/23, "There has been a turn in the market from super heated to still very strong," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. Fox quotes George Ratiu, Realtor.com manager of Economic Research in an article 8/25 noting that the "pandemic-trend" towards new homes had softened. According to Ratiu, demand had been fueled by "a historically-low inventory of existing homes and shifting preferences for larger homes, backyards and suburban neighborhoods." However, he claims that now home buyers are seeking a more affordable option, "especially as prices of new homes remain elevated due to lumber costs."  In summary, although experts agree the market is "cooling," there is no anticipation of home values dropping. With the exception, of course, of price reductions on those new listings fueled by not-too-serious sellers and new real estate agents working to profit from this great real estate market ;).

 

Phoenix Leads Job Growth in Technology Sector

According to the Phoenix Business Journal, Phoenix is one of the leaders in Tech job growth. Overall, Phoenix ranked #15, beating out well-known tech hub San Jose. Amazon was the top posting employer, followed by several defense firms. Top cities ranked by overall job posting volume, according to the article, ranking above Phoenix were, in order of Tech Job Postings: New York; Atlanta; Chicago; San Francisco; Washington; Austin; Seattle; Dallas; Los Angeles; Boston; Charlotte; Houston; Denver and San Diego. Full Article

 

The Latest & Greatest on Luxury Demand

DeniseVDB shrugging her shoulders in a Luxury Home

According to this month's Luxury Home Marketing Institute, “A combination of government intervention to manage economies and assist businesses, the unexpected and significant amount of new wealth generated since the onset of COVID-19 – from both industry and the stock market, and fewer options available for travel, vacations, recreation, and other social activities has all contributed to an increase, as well as a reallocation, of disposable income.” Download full report HEREADU Accessory Dwelling Unit from BHG Article

 Is Your Neighbor Planning to Add an Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU) to the Yard?

Cities need a lot more affordable living spaces and owners want more out of their lots. That's why ADUs have become a major trend in housing nationwide. An accessory dwelling unit (ADU) is a residential unit located on the same lot as a single-family home. Download Full Article HERE.

The Principal Residence Gain Exclusion Break

The $250,000 ($500,000, if married*) home sale gain exclusion break is one of the great tax-saving opportunities. Certain exceptions: only if neither you nor your spouse took advantage of the exclusion for an earlier sale within the two-year period.  Click for details from the Bradford Tax Institute August Tax Reduction Letter.

 

One thing remains constant and is even more true than ever: Your Home Equity is a significant asset in your portfolio and you deserve expert guidance.  Is Now a Good Time to Buy or Sell a Home? Call Denise 602-980-0737, celebrating a 36 year career in Arizona Real Estate. 

 

 


How Long will this Seller's Market Last?

(Published on - 8/3/2021 6:03:19 AM)

Can this SELLER'S MARKET be sustainable?

Bella Market Question denisevdb.com

We have been in a Seller's Market since 2015. But see how today's market is totally different from previous housing cycles. This 3 minute video uses comparative statistics to demonstrate the housing appreciation this time is real. It will eventually slow to a more reasonable pace of appreciation, but there is no indication it will fall.

2021 Housing Market Demand

2021: HIGH Rental Rates, High Demand, Lack of Inventory.

Back in 2005, Investors drove up housing prices thanks to EASY access to money. Today's demand is driven by owner-occupant homebuyers.  Secondly, back in 2005, while home prices skyrocketed, Rental Rates BARELY moved. Today's rental rates have SKYROCKETED, even despite the low interest rates.

 

2008: Flat Rental Rates, FLAT Demand, Surplus of Inventory.

Back in 2008 the housing market had become saturated with single family home rentals. PVDB housing bubble popWith no rental demand, vacancies soared. And without income to service the debt, thousands of investors foreclosed. Home values plummeted. Construction stopped. The building trades suffered, and many went out of business. Builders became timid. Fast forward and we see how housing construction did not keep pace with organic population growth in the ensuing years following the crash. This is a large contributor to our housing shortage today. Housing Market Statistics can be seen graphically HERE

 

Here's why the US May Have a Housing Boom for the Next 5 Years

According to ADVISOR PERSPECTIVES August 2, 2021, "The United States is just at the beginning of a housing boom that could last for the next five years.  In contrast to the early naught housing boom that was at least in part driven by shoddy lending standards, this one appears to be squarely driven by an utter lack of housing inventory." The article focuses on the construction slow down that followed the crash of 2008.

"Following the housing bust in the 2007-2009 period, and the excess inventory it created, homebuilders responded by slashing construction of new homes. New home construction fell from an average of 2M units per year in 2006 (too many units) to an average of less than 1M units per year (too few units) for the entire 2009-2020 period. This occurred at a time when the working age population (the group most likely to buy new houses) in the US increased by 9M people and the total population increased by 25M people. The lack of construction for the last decade, and especially over the last five years when a lack of inventory has become a major issue, appears to be a significant, if not the primary driver of house price appreciation." Full Article HERE

 

Phoenix leads Nation in Price Growth

followed by San Diego & Seattle

According to the Phoenix Business Journal 7/28/2021: "Despite a bit of softening in housing demand and a small uptick in the housing supply, home price growth in metro Phoenix continues to top the nation, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index.

Phoenix led the nation with a 25.9% year-over-year price gain in May, followed by San Diego at 24.7% and Seattle at 23.4% at a time when the national gain of 16.6% set a record high.

While homebuilders and developers have been busy buying land throughout the Valley, the housing supply is still very constrained, said Thomas Brophy, research director for Colliers International.

As of the end of June, the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service pegged current for-sale inventory at 1.05 months — maintaining below a 2 month supply since May 2020, Brophy said.

"Anything below three months indicates the market is experiencing inventory shortages," he said. "Shortages, most likely will continue through the remainder of the year and into early next year as homebuilders continue to ramp up production."

 

LUXURY HOME MARKET REPORT

The August Luxury Home Marketing institute report provides a 6 month recap of luxury home statistics throughout North America. Download full report, including local reports for Scottsdale and Paradise Valley HERE. "Record low interest rates, increased household savings, strengthening stock market, and a continued focus on living space during the pandemic were all factors that helped bolster demand," stated Diane Hartley, CEO of The Institute for Luxury Home Marketing. "Now the steady, and in some markets "heady," price growth has started to encourage more sellers to list their homes."

 

Denise van den Bossche  has been a licensed agent in the Phoenix-Scottsdale Valley since 1985. Her husband of over 20 years, Patrick, is President of Realty Executives International supporting over 550 offices worldwide. Is this a good time to buy or sell? Contact at denise@denisevdb.com

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Sellers Market is Best Time to Buy A Home June 2021 Market Report

(Published on - 7/7/2021 2:03:20 AM)

Where is the 2021 Housing Market Headed?

Everybody's TalkingMay 2021 stats arrived mid-June. Pending home sales, a measure of signed contracts on existing homes, jumped an unexpectedly high 8% in May compared with April, according to the National Association of Realtors. Analysts expected a 1% drop. This is the highest level of sales activity for May since 2005.

 Cromford Graph

"The housing market is attracting buyers due to the decline in mortgage rates, which fell below 3%, and from an uptick in listings" said Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtor (NAR)'s chief economist. Yun indicated that although the housing market has had to overcome obstacles, there appears to be positive market conditions on the horizon through the end of 2021. 

"While these hurdles have contributed to pricing out some would-be buyers, the record-high aggregate wealth in the country from the elevated stock market and rising home prices are evidently providing funds for home purchases,” Yun said. 

"More market listings will appear in the second half of 2021, in part from the winding down of the federal mortgage forbearance program and from more home building. Home price growth will steadily moderate with increased supply, but a broad and prolonged decline in prices is unlikely," Yun continued. "However, if a reduction occurs in some markets, homebuyers will view the lower home price as a second-chance opportunity to get into the market after being outbid in previous multiple-bid market conditions."   (more)

 

1031 Exchanges Threatened?

According to the Phoenix Business Journal on July 2, President Biden’s American Families Plan will eliminate or cap the 1031 exchange process and may cripple the already deeply hurt commercial real estate sector.

 

The article presents a study which demonstrates that Section 1031 drives the Arizona real estate economy, involving 15 to 20% of all commercial transactions. And as most replacement properties acquired in a 1031 exchange are ultimately disposed of through a taxable sale, the argument that it provides a loophole to avoid paying taxes is defeated.  Further, a Ernst & Young study concluded that if section 1031 were limited or repealed, it would shrink GDP by $9.3 billion per year.  Full Article If you do not subscribe to the Business Journal, contact me for more information.

 

THIS MONTH'S MARKET UPDATE Video Link:  

Phoenix ranks 6 of July 2021 DeniseVDB.com Housing Market Reportthe ten largest cities in the nation for housing affordability. Home prices are up 49% from just 3 years ago, but the monthly payment has increased just 25%. So why is it so hard to find a home? Because while the Phoenix population continued to grow despite the recession of 2008, new construction just did not keep pace.  Click link to see my most recent Monthly statistics charts & this month's Housing Market Report.

 

CROMFORD'S MONTHLY VIEW

 

There’s a misconception that waiting for a Buyer Market to buy a home is a good idea.Misconceptions drawing by www.DeniseVDB.com

Comments For Buyers:

There’s a lot of conflicting advice for buyers online these days, and there’s no shortage of headlines advising them to wait. Many authors cite the unpleasantness of multiple competing offers and rising prices as the reason to wait out the market. This is despite their acknowledgment that home values are not expected to stop rising in the near future and that interest rates are expected to eventually rise.


It’s undeniably more pleasant to purchase a home when there’s a plethora to choose from and you’re the only game in town, however there’s a reason you may be the only buyer in that scenario. That’s the end of a Seller Market, and signifies the top of price.
Cromford June 2021 DeniseVDB.comThe top of price is either the beginning of a Balanced Market or a Buyer Market, which either way means the end of exciting annual appreciation rates. There’s a misconception that waiting for a Buyer Market to buy a home is a good idea. This is not true. Home values decline in Buyer Markets because, by definition, there are more homes than buyers to buy them. While that sounds like a magical dream land these days, the reality is that no one likes to purchase a home and watch its value decline or go flat. Ironically, if you want your home to appreciate right after you buy it, then you want to buy in a Seller Market. Perhaps we should rename Seller Markets “Winner Markets”, because both buyers and sellers win in a sense.

Admittedly, the extreme Seller Market Greater Phoenix is experiencing doesn’t feel like “winning”, but there is some relief on the horizon. The market has been losing strength since mid-March, but it’s not plummeting. At it’s current rate of decline, the Greater Phoenix market is still projected to remain in a Seller Market for 16 months. That’s a target of October 2022 before prices stop rising. As the Seller Market weakens, appreciation rates will still be positive moving forward but there will be a little more supply to accommodate demand. My advice to buyers frustrated with the market, don’t wait for the market to balance out. Take a breath, take a vacation, but don’t give up. Change is subtle.

 

Comments For Sellers:

Typically this time of year we start talking about the imminent “Summer Slowdown” in contract activity as kids are out of school and people take vacations to escape the heat. Last year, the Greater Phoenix market didn’t experience this typical seasonal trend. As trips were cancelled and people stayed home, there was a large surge in purchase contract activity that continued through the end of the year. This year, as people are getting back to some form of normalcy, it looks like we will see a seasonal slowdown in buyer activity once again. If the trend continues and the market follows previous years, we should expect contract activity to slowly decline through the end of the year.The seasonal slowdown is typically nothing to be concerned about, mainly because there tends to be a dip in new listings as well. However this year there’s an event coming up that could alter that scenario, that is the end of forbearance for many homeowners. While the vast majority of forbearances have ended with homeowners staying in their home, anywhere from 16%-20% have resorted to selling their home one way or another according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. This could result in an increase in supply over the next few months, adding extra days of marketing time to your listing and possibly a few price reductions. Stay tuned.

The Cromford Report is based on the campus of Arizona State University. Provided as a proud subscriber. ©2021 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

 

LUXURY HOME MARKET INSTITUTE

Link to this month's printable report follows.

Supply isn’t just being reduced by the affluent buying additional properties, it was also highly impacted by the seniors, baby boomers, and empty nesters who decided to stay in place.

Each spring we typically see a vast number of listings entering the market from this demographic as they chose to downsize or relocate. It is predicted that the 2020 and early 2021 “stay in place trend” will start to change and homes will slowly trickle back on to the market, especially if the pandemic continues to remain manageable.”

 Full Report from the Luxury Home Marketing Institute just released June 25, 2021 both National and specific to Paradise Valley Arizona. Other market report locations are available, contact me.

 

Denise van den Bossche (www.DeniseVDB.com) has been a career Real Estate professional in the Scottsdale Valley since 1985, participating in the Phoenix Valley’s growth from a population of 1.5M to the current 4.5 million. She can be reached at 602-980-0737.

Questions? Need Advice? Complete this form for more information.

Contact Information::










Best Remodel Pay-backs: A Boomer-Designed Remodel

(Published on - 7/6/2021 6:48:45 PM)

Adding Aging-in-Place features into the design of your remodel or the Paint cans denisevdb.comupdating of your home can pay you big dividends! 

The movement to Age-in-Place has grown exponentially due to: High replacement costs during a Seller's Market; Unexpected global economic events; Job transfers; An Accident with home rehabilitation, Extended family - both health and financial issues.

Adding just a few modifications to your "updating" plans can provide you with the option to live in your home longer. And, whether you stay in the home, or "right-size" somewhere else, adding Boomer-Design features will increase your buyer-pool and home value!  (downloadable full article)

 

 

NAR's Senior Real Estate Specialist are trained professionals who are experts in Aging-in-Place and other topics important to the Baby Boomer demographic. More information can be found at www.SRES-AZ.com

Is the Housing Market About To Crash?

(Published on - 6/15/2021 8:47:39 PM)

 

Realtor.com May 3, 2021 by Clare Trapasso.

denisevdb google quoteWith home prices at a new record high and homes flying off the market in hours in some cases, it’s no wonder that Google searches for “when is the housing market going to crash” have spiked dramatically in recent weeks. After all, the mania seems reminiscent of the run-up to the housing bubble in the mid-2000s—and we’ve all been told that what goes up must eventually come down.

However, housing is likely to keep defying common sense. Experts say there’s no reason to prepare for a crash landing like we experienced in 2008 and 2009. This time around, the reason for the out-of-control prices is simply that there are many more buyers than there are properties for sale. Another simple rule: Prices rise when there is more demand than supply. Crazy, it seems, is the new normal.

“I find it difficult to say we’re not in a housing bubble, but I [also] find it difficult to say home prices are going to crash,” says Ali Wolf, chief economist at building consultancy Zonda. agent in housing bubble denisevdb.com
“Today’s prices feel unsustainable, today’s frenzy feels unsustainable. But that doesn’t mean there’s going to be a crash. That’s bad news for a lot of shoppers who are hoping for prices to come down.”

Nationally, median home list prices shot up 17.2% year over year in April, to hit a new record high of $375,000, according to Realtor.com® data. Meanwhile, incomes haven’t risen anywhere near as much.

Still, “There are a lot of people sitting on the sidelines desperate to buy a home,” says Wolf. “If the market stabilizes, there are a lot of [buyers] who are going to come out of the woodwork to soften the blow.”

What’s more likely to happen is that, over the next year or two, prices will continue to rise, but at a much slower pace. Bidding wars will taper off, and the astronomical offers over asking price will eventually come down.

But that doesn’t mean prices will return to their pre-pandemic levels. List prices are expected to continue rising to meet sale prices, but the annual increases won’t be nearly as brutal.

 

Is Now a Good Time to Buy a Home in Scottsdale? Subscribe to my Arizona Market Update, Updated Monthly. www.HotFromPhoenix

 

Denise has been a licensed agent in the Phoenix-Scottsdale Valley since 1985. Her husband and life-partner of over 20 years, Patrick, is President of Realty Executives International supporting over 550 offices worldwide. Contact at denise@denisevdb.com

 

#RealtyExecutivesInternational #HousingMarket #Phoenix #HotFromPhoenix #DeniseVDB #BestArizonaRealtors #LuxuryHomes #Scottsdale #ParadiseValley

 

 


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