January: Typically the month we have the highest increase of new homes put on the market for sale in the Metro-Phoenix Valley of the Sun... but not this year

The number of homes in the metro-Phoenix market for sale actually declined in most of the cities during the month. So is this a good time to buy a home here? Absolutely.

All of the experts agree that although we may not see 25-40% appreciation this year, we will most likely see around 20%. Especially in markets like the metro-Phoenix Valley, one of the fastest growing cities for the technology and healthcare sectors. Scroll down to read some of these opinions, as well as about the companies moving into the Valley. We don't have storms or snowdays to shut down our businesses or raise our insurance. And, although our homes are appreciating, our taxes and overall cost of living remains low. And believe it or not, some of us LOVE the summers here!

Do you want to buy at a time when housing is appreciating? Or when it is declining?

Graph illustrating the number of listings in Phoenix (Single Family Homes priced $500,000 and above):

Housing Market Recap

The median price of a home in the Valley increased over $100,000. Sales on homes priced under $200,000 fell 40%, while there was an increase of 68% in homes over $1 Million. Watch this 3-minute recap of 2021.

MORE HOUSING MARKET INFORMATION BELOW

One thing remains constant and is even more true than ever: Your Home Equity is a significant asset in your portfolio and you deserve expert guidance.  Is Now a Good Time to Buy or Sell a Home? Denise van den Bossche has enjoyed a 36 year career in the Phoenix Metro Valley real estate. She can be reached at 602.980.0737.

It is PEAK SEASON IN SCOTTSDALE. The upcoming world-renown collector car auctions are followed by the PGA’s rowdiest and most popular week-long golf tournament. This is followed in February by some of the most well attended horse shows in the world. Families begin arriving in early March for spring break, filling resorts and vacation rentals to peak capacity. Lastly, the entire month of April is booked for Spring Training: 15 of the 30 MLB teams host in stadiums throughout the Valley. The Arizona Cardinals will not make it to the Super Bowl this year. However, next year they will be hosting it. Super Bowl LVII is scheduled for February 12, 2023 here in Cardinal Stadium!

Phoenix metro builds resilancy to negate any future housing market declines

Semiconductor 'Mecca'

Another U.S. semiconductor company is considering Arizona for a fab plant that could have a capital investment of $40 billion and 10,000 jobs at full buildout. The project is on an accelerated timeline as the world reacts to the global chip shortage that is causing supply chain disruption.  According to the Phoenix Business Journal on January 4, the company has not been disclosed, but has been confirmed as a U.S. Company.

Phoenix metro is already considered a tech mecca which Forbes labeled last March as “Semiconductor Central.”

• Intel broke ground last summer on two new chip factories in the Valley in a $20 billion expansion in Chandler, expected to create 3,000 jobs and 15,000 indirect jobs.  Intel is the largest American chipmaker. An Intel executive was featured on a panel for the Greater Phoenix Economic Council last fall, stating that the facility is on track and on schedule.
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing in constructing its $12 billion semiconductor fab in north Phoenix. Taiwan is the world’s largest producer of computer chips. The announcement in 2021 was the largest foreign direct investment in Arizona’s history. The plant is expected to create a total of 4,296 jobs over 10 years. The first phase is estimated to have an economic impact of $382 billion over 20 years.
• On January 11, EMD Electronics, a chemical supplier in the semiconductor industry, was featured in another Phoenix Business Journal article as intending to build a $28 million factory in Chandler. EMD expects to start operations at the end of 2022 and employ at least 100 people.

Solar

The January 6 Business Journal featured story on Switzerland-based manufacturing facility to employ 500 in Litchfield in the SW Phoenix Valley. Meyer Burger Technology AG will produce solar modules at Goodyear Airport 85, a new speculative building located near the Phoenix Goodyear Airport.

Biotech

ASU President Michael Crow was quoted in the January 6 edition that ASU’s partnership with the Mayo Clinic has been finalized. Crow stated that the resulting north Phoenix biotech corridor will be “one of the most important sites on the planet – literally on the planet.” This huge project could eventually brig tens of thousands of jobs to the area. Joan Koerber-Walker, president and CEO of the Arizona Bioindustry Association summarizes this exciting news as follows, “As Arizona’s biomedical sector continues to grow, there is a need to expand beyond the lab and engage with partners to move discoveries into development so that they can ultimately benefit patients.”

No, the Sky is Not Going to Fall

According to a recent Forbes article, quoting from the most well respected experts, we expect prices to rise another 2.9%, and sales to increase another 6.6%. Read the full article here

One thing remains constant and is even more true than ever: Your Home Equity is a significant asset in your portfolio and you deserve expert guidance.  Is Now a Good Time to Buy or Sell a Home? Call Denise 602-980-0737, celebrating a 36 year career in Arizona Real Estate. 

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Contract Ratio: A Clear Predictor of When Home Values Will Fall. December 2021

How do you know that if you buy a home now, you will still be taking advantage of today's amazing home appreciation? Take a look at Contract-to-Active-Listing-Ratio, a firm indicator of SuppLy and Demand. Here in Maricopa County (Phoenix Metro) as of December 1 we had 6,157 listings, but another 11,014 homes under contract. That is completely upside down. It indicates that there is no possibility of prices going down in the near future. The graph below shows this ratio dating back to 2014. The Supply and Demand chart below that shows how totally different today's HIGH Demand and LOW Supply differs from the same snapshot in 2005.

Why You Should be Moving To Arizona

You have more options than ever before on where to live, work and play. If you are considering affordability, with a great lifestyle and realiability, look no further than Phoenix Metro. It is no secret, according to the Maricopa Association of Governments, as the County is adding more residents consistantly than any other in the nation. Arizona is business tax-friendly. Weather is mostly perfect, and very reliable. The state is blessed with low instances of natural disasters. And in just a two hour drive you can be in 7,000-12,000 elevations with Pine Trees and Golf Courses.

^{One thing remains constant and is even more true than ever: Your Home Equity is a significant asset in your portfolio and you deserve expert guidance.  Is Now a Good Time to Buy or Sell a Home? Call Denise 602-980-0737, celebrating a 36 year career in Arizona Real Estate.}

Consistent with last month, the markets continue at a slower appreciation than earlier in the year, but continue the steady climb. Click HERE for this month’s 3 minute housing market update. 

In Phoenix, annual appreciation declined to 25% (from 39%) and Days On Market up to 10 days (from last month's 5). That's still pretty terrific and buyers from 6 or 8 or more months ago are loving the appreciation they have already seen on their homes. Will they eventually lose value? According to the experts, that is doubtful. 

Below are snapshots from this month's business press.

_{One thing remains constant and is even more true than ever: Your Home Equity is a significant asset in your portfolio and you deserve expert guidance.  Is Now a Good Time to Buy or Sell a Home? Call Denise 602-980-0737, celebrating a 36 year career in Arizona Real Estate. www.DeniseVDB.com}

Although there is slightly less buyer competition, the experts are still expecting home prices to appreciate, but at a more sustainable rate than the past 18 months.  Click here for a 3 mimute demonstration on why it is still a great time to be a Buyer or a Seller.

Realtor Transparency

Last May, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) created a Clear Cooperation policy to address the growing use of off-MLS listings. The NAR concluded that leaving listings outside of the broader marketplace excludes consumers, undermining REALTORS®' commitment to providing equal opportunity to all. The policy states:

Within one (1) business day of marketing a property to the public, the listing broker must submit the listing to the MLS for cooperation with other MLS participants. Public marketing includes, but is not limited to, flyers displayed in windows, yard signs, digital marketing on public-facing websites, brokerage website displays (including IDX and VOW), digital communications marketing (email blasts), multi-brokerage listing sharing networks, and applications available to the general public.

The policy however, has an Office Exclusive Exemption which allows me as a Realty Executive, to promote to all other Realty Executive agents locally and worldwide. "In an office exclusive listing, direct promotion of the listing between the brokers and licensees affiliated with the listing brokerage, and one-to-one promotion between these licensees and their clients, is not considered public advertising," according to the NAR. It benefits my clients that I am a part of a large true peer-to-peer network of REALTORS®.

Supply and Demand

The below chart shows Supply and Demand in the current housing market. In the months leading up to the crash of 2008, we saw a drastic increase in housing supply (red), and a sharp decline in demand (green) as investors were offered easy money with little-to-no skin in the game.  We would need a similar surge in supply to reduce the demand in order to see a drop in housing prices today. And we would be able to see this happen statistically over a period of several months.

Maricopa County Continues to Top the Nation in Population and Job Growth

Maricopa County added more residents than any other county in the nation again last month according to Maricopa Association of Governments. We have 100 new "Zonies" relocating to the Valley of the Sun every day.

^{One thing remains constant and is even more true than ever: Your Home Equity is a significant asset in your portfolio and you deserve expert guidance.  Is Now a Good Time to Buy or Sell a Home? Call Denise 602-980-0737, celebrating a 36 year career in Arizona Real Estate.}