CHICAGO – March 4, 2016 – Recent housing and economic reports predict solid spring home sales, says Jonathan Smoke, realtor.com®'s chief economist. Smoke notes the following signs that suggest an upswing:

• Jobs: "Job creation – arguably the most important factor in housing demand – is moving apace," Smoke says. In January, the U.S. created 151,000 jobs; in February, it created 242,000. Unemployment is near 10-year lows. Smoke predicts that the latest employment growth should translate into a 3 percent boost to home sales this year.
• Home sales: Existing-home sales from January 2015 to January 2016 grew 11 percent. Sales are taking longer close due to new truth-in-lending mortgage rules that took effect last fall, but the pace of sales is growing. New-home sales have also grown solidly year-over-year, and the median price of new homes is declining as more builders offer affordable homes rather than catering only to the luxury market.
• Home prices: Prices are moving up and most of that has been attributed to the limited number of homes for sale. At the current pace, there's a four-month supply of homes on the market – much lower than the norms of six to seven months. "This is driving prices higher and encouraging consumers who hope to buy this year to get started as soon as possible," Smoke says.
• Mortgage rates: Low mortgage rates are improving homebuyer affordability – for now anyway. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged under 3.7 percent in the latest week, which offers buyers nearly 5 percent more buying power than they had at the end of 2015, Smoke notes.

But as Smoke notes: "not everything is rainbows and unicorns. The biggest negative trend impacting potential demand relates to the January and February declines in stock values, which have taken a toll on consumer confidence."

Also, a tight inventory of for-sale homes could also limit sales in the spring season. But for buyers who qualify, the low mortgage rates may prove a stronger motivator than too-few homes to consider.

Source: "The Numbers Are In: Yup, 2016 Is Off to a Good Start in Home Sales," realtor.com® (Feb. 26, 2016)The Numbers Are In

© Copyright 2016 INFORMATION, INC. Bethesda, MD (301) 215-4688

WASHINGTON – Feb. 24, 2016 – Freddie Mac's monthly Multi-Indicator Market Index (MiMi) finds that two states – Florida and Arizona – have entered their outer range of stable housing activity.

MiMi attempts to judge housing market fundamentals – the "sweet spot" for balance – calling those markets "in range." To come up with a MiMi score, Freddie Mac says it "draws from multiple data sources, including our daily business with more than 2,000 mortgage lenders" and local market data.

According to the latest December 2015 MiMi score, Florida's index hit 80.1. Freddie considers a score between 80 and 120 to be "in range." It finds Florida "in range and improving" with a score that rose 1.39 percent over the previous month and 3.62 percent over the previous three months.

On a year-over-year basis, Freddie Mac found Florida to be the most improving state, with a MiMi score increase of 16.59 percent. Compared to Florida's score during the depth of the recession (October 2010), the MiMi score today is 98.8 percent higher.

On the metro level, several Florida cities have improved greatly, with Orlando making the MiMi list for most improved metro area both month-to-month and year-to-year.

Nationwide, the MiMi purchase applications indicator improved by nine percent in 2015 for its best showing since September 2013. The national MiMi value stands at 82.7, indicating a housing market on the outer range of stable.

"At the start of 2015, MiMi showed the national housing market in a weak position, but by the end of the year it … is just inside the stable range of housing activity," says Freddie Mac Deputy Chief Economist Len Kiefer. He calls the latest score good news, but says there's more work to be done.

Kiefer calls a solid increase in purchase applications one positive sign, with "borrowers being current on their mortgage" a second positive trend. And "what's really anchoring this recovering housing market is the improving employment picture, which is giving more people the confidence to purchase a home, including first-time homebuyers," he adds.

MiMi Dec. 2015 findings

• Thirty-five of 50 states plus the District of Columbia have MiMi values in a stable range, with the District of Columbia (102.5), North Dakota (96.7), Hawaii (96.2), Montana (95.6) and Utah (94) in the top five.
• Fifty-six of 100 metro areas have MiMi values in a stable range, with Austin, TX (98.8), Denver (98.3), Honolulu (98.2), Salt Lake City (97.4) and Los Angeles (97.2) ranking in the top five.
• The most improving states month over month were Oregon (+1.66%), New Jersey (+1.62%), Arizona (+1.39%), Florida (+1.39%) and Missouri (+1.25%).
• On a year-over-year basis, the most improving states were Florida (+16.59%), Oregon (+15.64%), Colorado (+14.09%), Washington (+12.58%) and Nevada (+12.54%).
• The most improving metro areas month over month were Orlando (+1.65%), Baton, Rouge (+1.57%), Portland (+1.52%), Palm Bay (+1.48) and Tampa (+1.40%).
• On a year-over-year basis, the most improving metro areas were Orlando (+20.33%),Cape Coral (+19.16%), Tampa (+18.51%), Portland (+18.20%) and Denver (+17.72).
• In December, 45 of the 50 states and 86 of the top 100 metros were showing an improving three-month trend.

© 2016 Florida Realtors®

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