One Key Sign We’re Not Headed for a Wave of Foreclosures

Foreclosures are ticking up. And that may make your mind jump straight to thoughts of 2008 – specifically to what happened to the market during the housing crash. So, let’s do exactly what your brain already wants to do, and see if there’s any connection there.

The simple truth is foreclosure filings are rising. But they’re nowhere near crisis levels. And that’s not where they’re headed either. Here’s why.

Take a look at serious delinquencies – loans where the homeowner is more than 90 days late on their mortgage payments.

While those have increased slightly, data from the New York Fed shows they still remain low. And they aren’t anywhere close to levels seen when the market crashed (see graph below):

Right now, about 1% of mortgages are seriously delinquent. That’s only 1 in 100.

In the years around the crash, they were up around 9%. That’s 1 in 11.

That’s a big difference.

And it’s important to remember not all delinquencies even become foreclosure filings. Some homeowners who are falling behind will work out repayment plans with their banks and lenders because banks don’t want to see a wave of foreclosures either.

That’s why foreclosure numbers are even lower than delinquencies. ATTOM shows only 0.3% of all homes are currently going through a foreclosure filing. And those won’t even all go to a full foreclosure. That’s not a wave. That’s a ripple at most.

If People Are Falling Behind on Payments, Why Aren’t There Even More Foreclosures?

And maybe you’re wondering, if people are struggling financially, why aren’t there more foreclosures? Here’s the easiest way to answer that.

When households feel financial pressure, they tend to prioritize their mortgage payment above almost everything else. Because the last thing they want to lose is their home.

Data from the New York Fed shows serious delinquencies have risen more for credit cards and auto loans (the blue and green lines). But mortgage delinquencies and home equity lines of credit (borrowing against the value of your home) aren’t seeing the same big uptick (the yellow and orange lines). They’re a lot more stable overall.

In other words, people may fall behind on other debts, but they fight hard to keep their homes. And, in today’s housing market, they’re also in a strong equity position to do so.

Home Equity Changes Everything

Many people have built significant equity over the past several years. And that creates options. As Daren Blomquist, VP of Market Economics at Auction.com, explains:

“Distressed homeowners… many times they still have equity in their homes. There’s an opportunity for them to sell that home, avoid foreclosure, and walk away with equity.”

That’s a major difference from 2008. Back then, many homeowners owed more than their homes were worth. And selling wasn’t an easy solution. Today, for many people, it is. And even in situations where equity isn’t enough, homeowners are encouraged to contact their loan servicer early to explore alternatives to foreclosure.

Bottom Line

Are foreclosure filings rising slightly? Yes. Are they anywhere near crash territory? No. And homeowners today have far more equity and flexibility than they did during the crash.

If you’re concerned about what you’re seeing in the headlines, the best move isn’t panic, it’s perspective. And the data right now says this isn’t 2008 all over again.

Should You Wait for Lower Rates?

Mortgage rates have already dropped into the upper 5s twice this year. But after just a few days, they ticked back up into the low 6% range. If you saw that and thought, “Great. I missed it,” you’re not the only one.

A lot of buyers are treating the 5s like some kind of magic number. As if moving from 6.1% to 5.99% suddenly changes everything. And from a mindset perspective, it does feel different.

But here’s the part most people don’t actually run the math on.

The Payment Difference Isn’t What You Think

Let’s say you’re looking at a $500,000 home loan. At 6.1%, generally speaking, your principal and interest payment is roughly $3,030 per month. At 5.9%, it’s about $2,966 per month.

That’s a difference of only $64 a month.

Not $300.

Not $500.

Sixty dollars.

Let that sink in for just a moment.

Yes, over time that $64 a month can add up. But it’s far from the dramatic swing many buyers imagine when they say they’re “waiting for the 5s.”

The psychological impact of seeing a 5 in front of your rate can feel big. The financial impact? It might be something you don’t even notice when it’s all said and done.

Experts Aren’t Predicting a Big Drop

Another important piece to think about: most housing economists aren’t forecasting a long-term return to 5% territory anytime soon.

While rates will move up and down, likely hitting the high 5s here and there, the broader expectation is for mortgage rates to hover in the low 6% range this year, not stay in the 5’s or decline much more.

While it certainly could happen, the reality is, waiting for a deep drop may not deliver the payoff you’re hoping for, if you’re holding out

The Bigger Question to Ask

Instead of asking, “Did I miss the 5s?” A better question is: “Does today’s payment work for me?” 

If the monthly payment fits comfortably in your budget, and you’ve found a home that meets your needs, the difference between 6.1% and 5.9% likely isn’t the deciding factor. It might be one of them, but it shouldn’t be everything. 

And remember, mortgage rates aren’t permanent. If they drop meaningfully later, refinancing is always an option. But you can’t refinance a home you didn’t buy.

Waiting Might Feel Safe, But It Isn’t Always Strategic

It’s natural to want the best possible rate. Everyone does. But sometimes buyers overestimate how much a rate in the high 5s will change things in today’s market.

Don’t miss the fact that rates have already come down. A year ago, they were in the 7s. Now? They’re hovering in the low 6s. And for a lot of people, that percentage point difference that’s already here is the real game changer.

If you paused your plans when rates were higher, now may be the right time to re-run your numbers. Not because rates are “perfect.” But because the monthly payment math might work better than you think, even with rates in the low 6s. 

Before assuming you’ve missed your moment, take another look at the numbers.

You may find it never disappeared.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for that magic number for rates, that strategy may not pay off as much as you’d expect.

Let's connect so you can double check the math at your price point. You may realize payments are already within your range.

Spring Sellers Have an Edge. Here’s Why.

Homeowners looking to sell usually want three things: plenty of interested buyers, strong offers, and a short timeline. Spring is the season that most often delivers all three.

So, if a move has been on your mind this year, this is the window where momentum tends to work in your favor. Here’s what makes this season so powerful for sellers.

1. More Buyers Will Be Looking

Typically speaking, in the housing market, there’s no more popular time to move than the Spring. Historically, data coming out of ShowingTime proves that’s when buyer activity peaks each year. Take a look for yourself (see graph below):

And this year, there’s more than just the seasonal trend working in your favor. Mortgage rates are also sitting near 3-year lows – and that combination matters.

More buyers + improving affordability = more eyes on your house.

That doesn’t mean the market will return to the frenzy of the pandemic – far from it. But it does mean more buyers will be ready to re-enter the market. And that’s good for you. As Redfin says:

“Homebuying demand is improving . . . and mortgage-purchase applications are sitting near their highest level in three years. . ."

You should make sure your house is listed so you can take advantage of the uptick in demand. Because more activity means one thing: more opportunity to get a deal done.

2. You May Get More Offers

With more buyer demand, it makes sense that you may get more offers on your house. And history shows that’s usually true.

If we look at the data for the last three years from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and take the averages for each month, it’s clear sellers in the Spring get more offers (see graph below):

Now, don’t expect the excessive bidding wars that were so famous in 2020 and 2021. But it does mean, seasonality could help you out this Spring. As Realtor.com explains:

“Spring typically brings out more buyers who are ready to make a move before summer. Listings see more views, showings, and offers during this season.”

And that could be really good for your bottom line.

3. Homes Usually Sell Faster

There’s one more predictable pattern that happens pretty much every Spring based on research from Realtor.com. Homes sell faster (see graph below):

On average, homes sell 20 days faster in the Spring compared to the Winter. That’s almost 3 weeks shaved off your timeline. And that's a difference you can feel.

Since homes have been taking longer to sell lately, listing your house during what’s usually the most active time of the year means you’re setting yourself up to move as quickly as possible. And isn’t that what sellers really want?

The faster your home sells, the earlier you can move on to what’s next for you.

If you’re eager to go on to your next chapter, need to downsize, or you’ve run out of space, Spring may be your best time to sell.  

Bottom Line

Spring doesn’t guarantee a sale. Strategy still matters. But this season gives you something valuable: momentum.

More buyers. More activity. More opportunity.

The real question is: if you’re going to sell this year, why not do it when the odds are in your favor?

Let’s talk about what selling this season could mean for your house and your timeline.