Is Inventory Getting Back To Normal?

After years of it feeling almost impossible to find a home you want to buy, things are changing for the better.

Nationally, inventory is growing, and that gives you more options for your move. But here’s what you need to know. That level of growth is going to vary based on where you live. And that’s why you need an agent’s local market expertise.

Here’s a quick rundown of the current inventory situation, so you know what’s happening and what to expect.

Significant Growth Across the Nation

Nationally, the number of homes for sale is rising – and that’s true in all regions of the country. That’s shown in this data from Realtor.com. In each of the four regions, inventory is up at least 19% compared to the same time last year. In the West, it’s actually up almost 41% year-over-year (see graph below):

There are two main reasons for this increase:

• More sellers are listing their homes. Many homeowners have been waiting for mortgage rates to drop before making a move. Now, some have decided they can’t wait any longer. May had more new listings than any May in the past three years.
• Homes are taking longer to sell. That means listings are staying on the market longer, which increases the total number of homes available. In May, the typical home took 51 days to sell – much closer to what’s more typical for the market.

More homes for sale helps the market become more balanced. For the past few years, sellers have had the upper hand. Now, things are shifting. Nationally, it’s not a full-on buyer’s market yet, but it’s heading toward a healthier place, especially for homebuyers. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“The number of homes for sale is rising in many markets, giving shoppers more choices than they’ve had in years . . . the market is starting to rebalance.”

How Much Growth We’ve Seen Varies by Area

But, how long it’s going to take to achieve true balance is going to vary by area. Some parts of the country are seeing inventory bounce all the way back to normal levels, while others haven’t grown quite that much yet.

Let’s take a look at another graph. This time, we’ll compare the current data (what you already saw) to the last normal years in the housing market (2017-2019).

In this comparison, the green shows which regions are back at more typical levels for inventory based on the growth we’ve seen lately. The red shows where things have improved, but are still well below the norm (see graph below):

Here’s what that means for you. Across the board, you have more options now than you would’ve just one year ago. And that’s a really good thing. More choices means it should be a bit easier to find a home you love.

But not all markets are the same – some will take a bit longer to get back to more typical levels. So, lean on a local agent to find out what the inventory situation looks like where you want to live. They’ll be able to tell you how much growth they’ve seen locally and how to tailor your home search based on what’s available in that area. This is just one of the reasons a local agent’s perspective matters. 

Bottom Line

Inventory is getting better, but how long it takes to get back to normal is going to be different based on where you’re looking to buy. Let’s talk about what’s happening in our local market and how it affects your next move.

What’s one thing you’ve noticed lately that makes the market feel different than it did a year or two ago?

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The Five-Year Rule for Home Price Perspective

Headlines are saying home prices are starting to dip in some markets. And if you’re beginning to second guess your plans based on what you’re hearing in the media, here’s what you need to know.

It's true that a few metros are seeing slight price drops. But don't let that overshadow this simple truth. Home values almost always go up over time (see graph below):

While everyone remembers what happened around the housing crash of 2008, that was the exception – not the rule. It hadn’t happened before, and hasn’t since. There were many market dynamics that were drastically different back then, too. From relaxed lending standards to a lack of homeowner equity, and even a large oversupply of homes, it was very different from where the national housing market is today. So, every headline about prices slowing down, normalizing, or even dipping doesn’t need to trigger fear that another big crash is coming.

Here’s something that explains why short-term dips usually aren’t a long-term deal-breaker.

What’s the Five-Year Rule?

In real estate, you might hear talk about the five-year rule. The idea is that if you plan to own your home for at least five years, short-term dips in prices usually don’t hurt you much. That’s because home values almost always go up in the long run. Even if prices drop a bit for a year or two, they tend to bounce back (and then some) over time.

Take it from Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub:

“. . . there’s the ‘five-year rule of thumb’ in real estate—which suggests that most buyers can buffer themselves from mild short-term declines if they plan to own a property for at least that amount of time.”

What’s Happening in Today’s Market?

Here’s something else to put your mind at ease. Right now, most housing markets are still seeing home prices rise – just not as fast as they were a few years ago.

But in the major metros where prices are starting to cool off a little (the red bars in the graph below), the average drop is only about -2.9% since April 2024. That’s not a major decline like we saw back in 2008.

And when you look at the graph below, it’s clear that prices in most of those markets are up significantly compared to where they were five years ago (the blue bars). So, those homeowners are still ahead if they’ve been in their house for a few years or more (see graph below):

The Big Picture

Over the past 5 years, home prices have risen a staggering 55%, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). So, a small short-term dip isn’t a significant loss. Even if your city is one where they’re down 2% or so, you’re still up far more than that.

And if you break those 5-year gains down even further, using data from the FHFA, you’ll see home values are up in every single state over the last five years (see map below):

That’s why it’s important not to stress too much about what’s happening this month, or even this year. If you’re in it for the long haul (and most homeowners are) your home is likely to grow in value over time.

Bottom Line

Yes, prices can shift in the short term. But history shows that home values almost always go up – especially if you live there for at least five years. So, whether you’re thinking of buying or selling, remember the five-year rule, and take comfort in the long view.

When you think about where you want to be in five years, how does owning a home fit into that picture?

Let’s connect to get you there.