Realty Executives of Flagstaff

Jeff Ross & Renee Gaun

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Jeff Ross & Renee Gaun

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Major Changes to the Flagstaff Home Market

(Published on - 8/8/2022 9:34:21 PM)

Imagine you meet someone new and, during the conversation, you ask what they do for a living. They answer, “I’m a plumber.” Chances are, you immediately conjure an image of them installing pipes or fixing leaks.

But, you also know they probably do much more.

A similar thing happens to us occasionally. Someone will ask what we do, and we tell them we are real estate agents. They then immediately assume we help people buy and sell homes.

And, of course, that’s true! But, we actually do much more for our clients.

For example, we are there for clients when they have questions or need advice, even during the years between moves.

We are also available to clients when they need a recommendation. For example, if you’re looking for a good contractor for an upgrade you’re planning for your home, we can probably give you a name.

And, we also keep my clients informed with valuable market updates, tips, and how-to articles. (That’s why we send you this e-Newsletter each month.)

The bottom line is, We are there for you throughout the homeownership journey, helping ensure you’re always in a property that matches your lifestyle and goals.

Update to Flagstaff Home Sales

 

The housing market is changing. We will show you where we are today, but honestly not sure anyone knows what the future holds. All we may know is that change is afoot, here, and nationwide.

Flagstaff Home Sales (for all types of homes, Single Family, Condo, Townhome and Manufactured) have slowed dramatically over the past 6 months and going back to June of 2021. Going back those 13 months we have only had 1 month with an increase in home sales, this year home sales are down -19.8%.

 

Though an added note to this, if we compare this year's  home sales to 2019, we're only selling -2% fewer homes, and possibly back to a more normalized homes sales trend.

 

Until recently, the reason for this was lack of available inventory. For example, early in 2022 we only had 41 homes on the market and at that time we should have seen 400-500 homes.  Today that number has climbed to just under 300 homes in the general Flagstaff area, a huge jump.

 

With inventory increasing one might think that home values would start to decline but the median home price in Flagstaff's active inventory is $725,900.  The median price of homes sold this year-to-date is $650,000, up 25.6%.

Homes on the market are 11% higher than the median for the year. Couple the higher home price with the interest rates that are hovering at 5.5% or so, that means that a mortgage payment could be as much as $600-$700 more a month.

Another interesting fact is that increase in home prices have slowed down as we progress into the year. The month of January, home prices rose 29.2%, while June the increase dropped to 17.3% and July month-to-date they are up at 2.5%.

We have attached a chart that breaks down sales through July 19th by home type, along with a final chart at the bottom showing home sales of all types by price range.  You will see that homes sales have shifted from under $700,000 to over $700,000.

This is a very fast changing market.  If you have questions, please never hesitate to reach out to Renee or Jeff with any questions. 

 

Renee Gaun * Jeff Ross
Your 1st Choice in Real Estate®
Your Team for Success

928-606-6232 Renee
Homes@ReneeGaun.com

928-607-5556 Jeff

Jeff@AllFlagstaffHomes.com

www.AllFlagstaffHomes.com

 

15 E. Cherry Ave

 


Are We Finally Seeing Change?

(Published on - 6/24/2022 8:16:03 PM)

Here’s something that probably won’t surprise you…

Numerous studies confirm that people looking for a professional, such as a roofing contractor, trust recommendations more than advertising.

Like I said, there’s no surprise there!

It’s becoming more and more common for people to ask friends and neighbors for recommendations when they’re looking for a professional. In fact, it’s one of the more common types of posts on community Facebook pages.

Why am I bringing this up?

As you may know, I’m well-connected in the local “home” industry. So, if you or one of your neighbors is looking for a reputable contractor, decorator, or other professional, I may be able to recommend someone. Please feel free to ask.

I’m happy to help.

And, by the way, if you come across someone looking for a good real estate agent, I hope you’ll feel comfortable giving them my name. My business is built on referrals from valued clients and homeowners in the communities I serve. Any referral you send my way will be greatly appreciated!

Let's jump into a quick market update...

In July I will provide a full 6 month review of the market. To quickly summarize what we have seen in the last few weeks I have asked Arizona Association of Realtors President, Gary Nelson for his take on the recent changes. 

“Throughout Arizona and the nation, real estate markets seem to be shifting quickly and sales activity has slowed. This is due to a rise in interest rates since January that has taken away the buying power of most real estate buyers combined with the drastic increase in home prices over the past few years.  Sales activity has returned to before-pandemic conditions where housing inventory has increased and buyers are more tentative.  Buyers still need to be prepared by being pre-qualified with a reputable local lender and, depending on price range, may still face a multiple-offer situation.  Sellers need to also be prepared with properties that show well, are ready for the market and are not overpriced." 

As Gary mentioned, things are shifting quickly and we anticipate more changes to come.  I will always have my finger on the pulse of the market, please reach out with any questions!

Have a wonderful 4th of July!

 

Renee Gaun * Jeff Ross
Your 1st Choice in Real Estate®
Your Team for Success

928-606-6232 Renee
Homes@ReneeGaun.com

928-607-5556 Jeff

Jeff@AllFlagstaffHomes.com

www.AllFlagstaffHomes.com

 

15 E. Cherry Ave
Fla


Update to Flagstaff Real Estate Market

(Published on - 5/24/2022 7:03:17 PM)

How often have you opened a newspaper, or logged into your favorite news website, and seen story after story about the real estate market?

Probably often.

There’s no doubt about it. The real estate scene has been getting a lot of coverage lately, and it can all seem confusing — even baffling.

However, there is good news.

Most news outlets report on national news. But, it’s the LOCAL Flagstaff real estate scene that impacts you the most. And, this Flagstaff market is much easier to understand and predict.

Say, for example, you’re thinking of moving. If you give us a call, We can give you a good idea of what your property will sell for on today’s market fairly quickly. In addition, if you’re targeting a neighborhood you’d like to get into, We  can let you know what properties are selling for in that area and the current opportunities available.

So, if you ever have questions about the local market, please don’t hesitate to contact us.

5 Month Update to the Flagstaff Real Estate Market

We are almost 5 full months into the 2022 Real Estate year with many changes afoot.

The Biggest is Inventory, which has increased, not to a level that is needed yet, but it is on the way.
The second is mortgage interest rates.

When we wrote our enewsletter in January, we had 41 homes of all types, Single Family, Townhome, Condo, and Manufactured in the general Flagstaff area. As I start this newsletter today on Friday, May 20th, we are up to 169 homes on the market.

Granted, the median price of those 169 homes is $835,000, with only 30 of those homes priced under $500,000.  The average days on market for these homes is sitting at 36 days. 

Lets start with the end of the newsletter and moved on from there, so the Summary:

Sellers;
Be careful what you are listing your home at, it is more important that ever to have that experienced full time agent giving you the guidance you need.

We talk in our office of the importance today, of not overpricing your home. More than ever, if your home does not sell relatively fast and you decided to lower the price, you may be putting a stigma on the home, "Why did it not sell”. The first question most buyers may ask, what is wrong with the home? not necessarily noticing it was just plain overpriced.


We are still in a strong Seller’s Market, so a good time to list, though it may take longer depending on the price point you are sitting at, and what happens with the Mortgage Rates.

Buyers;

You have two very important steps, 

Find the full-time agent, the agent that Real Estate is their only career, second find the best possible Mortgage Lender.

  • We have talked before on the importance of a full-time agent.
  • Lending, in today’s market, with the rising mortgage rates, you need someone that understands your lending needs and what a ¼ point increase in rates will do compare to the current home prices.

Just recently talking to Chris Hallows with Wallick & Volk Lending, his comment, “you must stay focused on the final outcome of your mortgage”. If you are waiting for homes to drop in price, while watching the interest rates rise, you may be focused on the wrong thing.

Granted things change, but currently in today’s market. 

 

  • Home prices, we are not sure what will happen, but with the strong demand of homes, high number of buyers and then the General Phoenix area summer temps warming up, home price may not be headed down.
  • Mortgage rates, the feds have made it pretty clear--One of the things to curb inflation, mortgage rates will be rising from our historically record-

A little more about this year’s Housing Market;

As mentioned above, we have climbed to 169 active homes on the market, with a median home price of those homes at $835,000.
Year-to-Date, we have sold 444 homes a decrease of -17%, with the Median Sale price climbing to $663,000 or a 32.6%.
Of those homes, the Median List price was $637,000, so a final price of 4% over list.
Also, the median Price per Sq Ft, has risen to $358.00.
Of these sold homes, 33% have been cash sales, with the Median Sales price of these case sales at $685,000.

We see what has happened this year,
Now let's look back 5 years and compare 2017 sales to 2022 sales:
We have sold 4.5% more homes this year to date, than in 2017, during the same time frame,
Home prices have climbed dramatically, with the Median Sales price in 2017 at $333,000, compared to todays at $663,000, an increase of 99.1%.

We wanted to keep this newsletter a little shorter, with the overall tone, 
Buyers,
There is opportunity, but more than ever, the importance of having a great Lending and Real Estate professional guiding you.
Sellers,
Be careful, it is easy to think the market is so hot, you can list for anything. But with the rising interest rates, and rise in home prices, the buyers purchase power is eroding. 

We are not saying do not list, it is the best time of year, and the demand is still extremely strong. With that strong Real Estate professional, they will guide you toward that very best sales price. 

 

 

Jeff Ross * Renee Gaun
Your 1st Choice in Real Estate®
Your Team for Success

928-607-5556  Jeff
Jeff@AllFlagstaffHomes.com
928-606-6232 Renee
Homes@ReneeGaun.com
www.AllFlagstaffHomes.com

 

15 E. Cherry Ave
Flagstaff, AZ. 86001

 


3 Month Flagstaff Housing Review 2022

(Published on - 4/21/2022 5:31:29 PM)

One of the great things about having friends and family is knowing that you help each other out.

Over the course of a year, you probably get asked for help, at least occasionally. Perhaps a neighbor has reached out to borrow some tools or a friend has needed some advice.

I’m sure you’re happy to oblige, whenever you can.

Why am I bringing this up?

We want to let you know that if you ever need help that is in some way real estate-related, you can give us a call. We'd be happy to help.

For example, you might need a contractor recommendation for a home improvement project. Or, you might have a question about the local real estate market and the current selling price of properties in the area.

Whatever help you need, We hope you’ll consider us as a friend and feel free to ask.

Contact us anytime.

A Look at the Frist Quarter of 2022 Flagstaff Housing Market

    

We wanted to give you an update of the General Flagstaff Housing market as we pass through the 1st quarter of the year.  

Before digging into the sale portion of our current market, I spoke with Chris Hallows over at Wallick & Volk to get his perspective on the lending side of things. 
I hesitate to give figures as there are many variables in lending. 
Your interest rate is contingent on many things, your Credit score, the day of the week and the option to pay points to buy down your rate. 
What we do know, interest rates are moving up and we may not see them come back down in the near future.

Buyer's need every edge they can get to compete in today’s market, we do highly recommend using a local lender. 
Sellers are looking for assurances that the home is going to close and on time. 
Having lenders that live in our community helps to assure this.

As we write this, we are up to 80 active homes on the market.  Though still way under the normal 300-500 homes for this time of year, the trend is moving upward. Last month we hovered around the 41 home mark.

Year to Date, as of this week, for all types of homes, Single Family, Townhome, Condo and Manufactured,
we have seen a -12% drop in the number of homes sold, with a -25.3% drop in the number of homes coming to the market.

Broken out,

  • Single family, -7.2% fewer homes sold, with -20.4% fewer coming to the market
  • Townhome, -36.7% fewer sold, with -26.9% fewer coming to the market
  • Condo, -9.5% fewer sold, with -45.1% fewer coming to the market
  • Manufactured, -6.2% fewer sold, with -30.3% fewer coming to the market.

 Because of the nationwide low inventory we have seen a strong growth in the Median Sales Price, with a 31.3% increase YTD.


 

Broken down we find, 

  • Single Family homes increasing to a Median Sales price of $740,000, or an increase of 37%
  • Townhomes at $517,500 and an increase of 9.3%
  • Condos at $341,515, and an increase of 51.8%
  • Manufactured at $350,000 and an increase of 7.7%

We see and hear about active listings getting well above list price and in some cases, this can happen.
But as the current market matures, sellers are increasing their list price to match the market as it changes, we are not seeing as many dramatic differences between list and sales price as we saw earlier.

For instance, Year to Date, as of this week, let's look at the Median List Price at the time of the sale compared to the actual Sales Price

  • Single Family Homes, Median List price at time of Sale, was $739,000, with the Median Sales price at $740,000
  • Townhomes, Median List price was at $510,000, with the Median Sales price at $470,000
  • Condos, Median List price at $337,000, with the Median Sales price at $341,515
  • Manufactured, Median List price at $375,000, with the Median Sales price at $350,000.

As you see two of the four types of home types are selling under the list price by as much as 7-8%.
Single Family and Condo prices are going above list price, that difference has narrowed and is getting very close.

If you are a home buyer, what are you looking at?

As mentioned today, we have 80 homes on the market, with the Median List price at $889,500.

Broken down,
Single Family homes Current list price on the market is at $999,900 with 65 homes currently on the market
Condo list price is at $312,500, with only 4 on the market
Townhome list price is at $632,500 with only 6 on the market
Manufactured, list price is at $275,000, with only 5 on the market.

It is important to note that this is what is on the market today!

Homes priced under this do come to the market frequently, but do not sit for long.

Of the 310 homes that sold so far this year,
105 of those sold for under $500,000 and those homes were only on the market for a median of 42 days.
72% of those homes required financing of some type, which may take 35 or so days of those 42.
Most agents will leave the home on the market for maybe 5-7 days to make sure all have had an opportunity to see the home and garner the best offer for the seller.


So today, the Median List prices look daunting, but over a third of the homes sold are well under the median, you just need that FULL TIME Real Estate Agent to be looking out for you.

A little about cash sales.
We hear the figure of 50% of the homes sold are for cash, this is just not true for the overall sold homes in Flagstaff.  YTD 31.9% of homes sales are cash sales. Though that 50% is very close to what the homes in the Gated Communities of Forest Highlands, Pine Canyon, and Flagstaff Ranch, but not when you take into consideration all homes in Flagstaff.

We have covered a lot, and you may have a lot of questions, if so, please never hesitate to reach out to either of us, we would enjoy talking and helping you make the right decision for you and your family.

 

Jeff Ross * Renee Gaun
Your 1st Choice in Real Estate®
Your Team for Success

928-607-5556  Jeff
Jeff@AllFlagstaffHomes.com
928-606-6232 Renee
Homes@ReneeGaun.com
www.AllFlagstaffHomes.com

 

15 E. Cherry Ave
Flagstaff, AZ. 86001


New Adventures in Bikepacking, and Update from a Local Mortgage Office

(Published on - 3/21/2022 5:53:27 PM)

Have you ever walked into a store, and when you were approached by a sales rep who asked, “Can I help you find your size?” you had to explain, “Oh, I’m just looking”?

Maybe you even felt a little guilty that you were not intending to buy anything.

Well, the same thing can happen in real estate. For example, you might happen to drive through a neighborhood, find that you like the area, see a couple of For Sale signs, and think, “I wonder how much it would cost to get into this neighborhood?”

That happens all the time, even to those who aren’t thinking about moving.

If you get curious about a neighborhood, please don’t hesitate to ask us about it. We'd be happy to answer your questions about the area and give you a ballpark of what a typical home costs there.

When it comes to real estate, it’s smart to have a sense of what the market is doing and what homes are selling for in areas you like. That way, if you ever do decide to move, you’ll have a head start!

How to Stomach the Interest Rate Roller Coaster

By Chris Hallows | Sr. Mortgage Advisor at Wallick & Volk Mortgage

Just like the twist and turns of your favorite theme park thrill, the mortgage interest rate market is giving plenty of folks a lot to stomach right now!

   

Inflation is the big player pushing rates up and as the FED works to raise their funds rate that could help mortgage rates stabilize as inflation reduces but this is easier said than done. The Fed just finished their March meeting this week and though the .25% rate hike on the funds rate should be a positive thing for mortgage rates, mortgage markets are nervous about the statement that they will be talking about ‘balance sheet reduction’ in the coming months.

Oversimplified, interest rates reached historic 50-70 year lows due to billions of dollars of FED subsidy via the COVID relief act as part of economic stimulus and that is sitting on the FED balance sheet – slowing, stopping or reversing that subsidy are all things that make mortgage rates push upwards. These factors coupled with geopolitical conflicts and economic concerns certainly set the stage for high mortgage rate volatility this year. Will this year be the best time to buy a home - no but is it a terrible time? I would argue absolutely not.

We have to remember the average interest rate from 2000-2010 National on a 30 yr fixed was 6.29% and the average rate from 2010-2020 was 4.09%. That makes the current national average of 4.375% not look as terrible as some may think. If you or someone you know got a rate in the 2’s or even 3’s in the last two years you basically won the mortgage lottery as a global pandemic and billions of dollars of subsidy created a one time event where you could lock up a 15-30 yr fixed debt at what folks used to do 5 year car loans for!

The hopeful take away is see the big picture through this roller coaster, let it scare off other buyers so you can win the bids in this competitive, low inventory market and have confidence that rates are truly good – consult with us or other local mortgage professionals that monitor rates daily to customize your plan for home ownership!


Now to some Bikepacking....

In late 2020, a year before we decided to move into semi-retirement, we asked, what will we do with our time??   

In my case, as you have read in our past newsletters, I enjoy the outdoors:  hiking, backpacking, fishing and some travel to remote locations. So what’s next?   

One of the newer fastest growing outdoor adventure sports is Bikepacking.  It’s a concept very similar to Backpacking, where you head out for days on end, with all your gear on your back to hike and camp.    

Bikepacking is similar, you just put all your gear in assorted bags on your bike and head out for days on end. 

In Biking, you have two main categories, Biketouring or Bikepacking.  The difference you ask?

Before I move to much further, you will see I inserted some pictures of our latest ride from the beginning of March.

We had five of us on this trip, Rog from Columbus Ohio, Jon from Port Angeles Washington, David from Port Townsend Washington and Kathy from Austin Texas. 

Only Jon and Rog had ridden together, I had not ridden with any of the group, but turned out we all rode so well together, we are looking for other opportunities.

 

Added note, those colored stretch straps on the front blue bags are Voile Straps, some of the best there are and super handy, well worth having around for assorted things.

Biketouring is, for the most part, exclusively on paved roads, whereas Bikepacking is on a combination of gravel roads and paths, to single track trails and some paved paths, though the paved portion can be very limited. 

Want to learn more?  A site to browse would be Bikepacking.com, which is my go-to site to locate defined routes in Arizona, neighboring states, or across the world.  They even offer answers to gear questions.

As I started to research Bikepacking I found thousands of established routes not only here in the United States but all over the world.  Here in Arizona, we have the Sky Island routes (East and West) out of Patagonia, which spans about 305 miles, while a trip to the Craters and Cinder Cone around Flagstaff is around 185 miles.  Routes can be as little as 20 miles to as long or longer than the Western Wildland Route, which is 2700 miles stretching from Mexico to Canada and could take 2 months to ride.   


You may have numerous questions: do we camp overnight, how many miles we will ride in a day, to what the heck do we do with all our gear, also known as a ‘Kit’ in the biking world.   

Let's start with the last question first, our Kit. 

This includes our tent, sleeping bag, sleeping pad, assorted clothes, food, water and bike repair tools.  The Kit is placed strategically on the bike; few riders carry much more that a small day pack on their backs to carry water or clothes; most of the weight is on the bike. On the front bags, which hang off the handlebars, you will find my tent and sleeping bag.  You should carry your heaviest items in the center frame bag, so water in my case.  

You might also carry a bag off the back of your seat, which is where I carry my food or panniers that are mounted on both sides of my rear tires. Most the time I carry bags on my front forks (the Blue Bags) which can include water, although in my case I usually carry clothes and tools there. 

The next question, how may miles a day?  

A lot of this depends on the terrain you are riding. If we are fortunate enough to ride smooth gravel intermixed with some paved roads, we can ride 45 miles plus.  Extreme riders will bike upwards of 70 to 100 miles a day. In our recent Sky Island trip, East and West loops we ranged from 18 miles on a short day to 46 miles on a long day. The difference as mentioned above is mainly the road or trail conditions and elevation gains and how much Hike-a-Bike you are doing.   


So, what is ‘Hike-a-Bike’ you ask? Aren’t you riding a bike? 

We do try to ride all parts of the route, but at times the uphill or even downhill grades are so steep, the terrain is so rough, that riding is both impractical and/or dangerous and takes more energy than just getting off your bike and pushing. This can also be strenuous since all that gear, we talked about can push your total weight of your bike up and over 50-60 lbs.  That’s a lot of weight!
   
The last question was, do we camp overnight?
  
Yes, for the most part we camp at predetermined spots. I say for the ‘most part’ because we travel so many more miles in a day compared to backpacking at 10 to 15 miles on average and we are on gravel roads of some sort that go through small towns, so we have more options. For instance, again on the Sky Island East loop, as we approached Green Valley from the east, a storm was approaching from the southwest bringing cold 40 mile an hour head winds, with rain and snow. So, we ducked into a motel that night.  The next day it was clear with just a little snow on the ground, but not enough to deter us from riding that day.   

We finished the two Sky Island Loops, East and West, just last week, and I have put a few of those pictures in this newsletter.

We met Sarah Swallow at the Appleton-Whittle Research Ranch of Audubon, who mapped out these rides on the 2nd day of our East loop.

We found out rather fast what is easy for some is not so for the rest of us.
When we looked at Sarah’s pictures and description of the East loop, we said this will be great, and it was, but there was a lot more ups and downs, and hike-a-bike than we expected.  

Look forward riding with the group again in the near future. Jon is doing the Western Wildland Route this spring and summer; I may join him on the New Mexico portion? Just depends on timing.


Combined the two loops are a little over 300 miles and I hope to write about these adventures in future issues of the newsletter.

The next adventures, hike up in Utah, then a Rambler Bikepack out of Manti Utah the first of August.

 

Jeff Ross * Renee Gaun
Your 1st Choice in Real Estate®
Your Team for Success

928-607-5556  Jeff
Jeff@AllFlagstaffHomes.com
928-606-6232 Renee
Homes@ReneeGaun.com
www.AllFlagstaffHomes.com

 

15 E. Cherry Ave
Flagstaff, AZ. 86001

 

 


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