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Where are Housing Pricing Going? with August 2018 Sales Update

(Published on - 8/2/2018 5:56:51 PM)

by Jeff Ross
Realty Executives of Flagstaff
August 2018

 

 

Thought I would breakout the homes sales below for Flagstaff areas 86001, 86004, 86005 thru August 1, 2018.

 

Single Family

  •  Number of Homes Sold, Year to Date
  • 560, an increase of 10.2%
  • Median Price, Year to Date
    • $400,000, an increase of 3.7%
  • Number of New Listings, Year to Date
    • 881, a decrease of -6.3%
  • Median List Price, Year to Date
    • $450,000, an increase of 8.4%
  • Average Days on the Market, Year to date
    • 99 Days

 

Manufactured Homes

  • Number of Homes Sold, Year to Date
    • 63, a decrease of -6.0%
  • Median Price, Year to Date
    • $237,500, an increase of 3.3%
  • Number of New Listings, Year to Date
    • 83, a decrease of -10.0%
  • Median List Price, Year to Date
    • $249,000, an increase 6.9%
  • Average Days on the Market, Year to date
    • 88 Days

 

Condominium Homes

  • Number of Homes Sold, Year to Date
    • 82, an increase of 7.9%
  • Median Price, Year to Date
    • $208,000, an increase of 12.4%
  • Number of New Listings, Year to Date
    • 119, a increase of 24.0%
  • Median List Price, Year to Date
    • $218,000, an increase 11.8%
  • Average Days on the Market, Year to date
    • 61 Days

 

Townhomes

  • Number of Homes Sold, Year to Date
    • 163, an decrease of -8.4%
  • Median Price, Year to Date
    • $352,000, an increase of 19.0%
  • Number of New Listings, Year to Date
    • 219, a decrease of -8.8%
  • Median List Price, Year to Date
    • $369,500, an increase 12.2%
  • Average Days on the Market, Year to date
    • 116 Days

We all wonder where home prices are going?

With home prices continuing to appreciate, some are concerned that we may be heading for another housing ‘boom & bust.’ It is important to remember, however, that today’s market is quite different than the bubble market of twelve years ago.

Here are four key metrics that will explain why:

  1. Home Prices
  2. Mortgage Standards
  3. Foreclosure Rates
  4. Housing Affordability

1. HOME PRICES

There is no doubt that home prices have reached 2006 levels in many markets across the country. However, after more than a decade, home prices should be much higher based on inflation alone.

Last week, CoreLogic reported that,

“The inflation-adjusted U.S. median sale price in June 2006 was $247,110 (or $199,899 in 2006 dollars), compared with $213,400 in March 2018.” (This is the latest data available.)

2. MORTGAGE STANDARDS

Many are concerned that lending institutions are again easing standards to a level that helped create the last housing bubble. However, there is proof that today’s standards are nowhere near as lenient as they were leading up to the crash.

The Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center issues a monthly index which,

“…measures the percentage of home purchase loans that are likely to default—that is, go unpaid for more than 90 days past their due date. A lower HCAI indicates that lenders are unwilling to tolerate defaults and are imposing tighter lending standards, making it harder to get a loan. A higher HCAI indicates that lenders are willing to tolerate defaults and are taking more risks, making it easier to get a loan.”

Their July Housing Credit Availability Index revealed:

“Significant space remains to safely expand the credit box. If the current default risk was doubled across all channels, risk would still be well within the pre-crisis standard of 12.5 percent from 2001 to 2003 for the whole mortgage market.”

3. FORECLOSURE RATES

A major cause of the housing crash last decade was the number of foreclosures that hit the market. They not only increased the supply of homes for sale but were also being sold at 20-50% discounts. Foreclosures helped drive down all home values.

Today, foreclosure numbers are lower than they were before the housing boom. Here are the number of consumers with new foreclosures according to the Federal Reserve’s most recent Household Debt and Credit Report:

Nation wide

  • 2003: 203,320 (earliest reported numbers)
  • 2009: 566,180 (at the valley of the crash)
  • Today: 76,480
  • Today in the General Flagstaff and Williams area: only  4 homes

Foreclosures nationwide today are less than 40% of what they were in 2003.

4. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY

Contrary to many headlines, home affordability is better now than it was prior to the last housing boom. In the same article referenced in #1, CoreLogic revealed that in the vast majority of markets, “the inflation-adjusted, principal-and-interest mortgage payments that homebuyers have committed to this year remain much lower than their pre-crisis peaks.”

They went on to explain:

“The main reason the typical mortgage payment remains well below record levels in most of the country is that the average mortgage rate back in June 2006, when the U.S. typical mortgage payment peaked, was about 6.7 percent, compared with an average mortgage rate of about 4.4 percent in March 2018.”

The “price” of a home may be higher, but the “cost” is still below historic norms.

Bottom Line

After using these four key housing metrics to compare today to last decade, we can see that the current market is not anything like that bubble market.

 

I hope this gives you a better insight into what is happening here in Flagstaff and Nationwide.

Please never hesitate to reach out with any of your questions,

Jeff

 


Positive 6 Month Report on Flagstaff Home Sales

(Published on - 7/15/2018 5:44:33 PM)

by Jeff Ross

Realty Executives of Flagstaff

July 2018

  

Home Sales through the first half of the year has been very strong with 8.7% more homes sold. The median price is up 10.84% for all categories of homes, Single Family, Manufactured, Townhome and Condos.
This is in the areas of 86001, 86004, 86005


When breaking this out just a little more as noted below, year to date thru July 14th, Single family homes sales have outpaced the Manufactured, Condo and Townhome market, the only category that has an increase in the number of homes sold, at positive 16.7%
Year to date when you looked at median prices, Single Family homes are at $400,000, up 3.1%, Manufactures are at $237,500, up 3.3%, Condos are at $208,000, up 12.7%, and Townhomes are at $353,000, up 19.3% in prices


Over ‘all price categories’ the number of Days on Market is hovering at 100 days, which is still well under the 6 months that the experts feel is a healthy market.
But with that said, homes above $500,000 are well over the 6-month bench market and would be considered in a Buyer’s Market, while those under $500,000 would be considered well under the 6 months and a Strong Seller’s Market.


Another interesting figure to note, Single Family Home Sales still account for a clear majority of the homes sold in Flagstaff, with a 65% share, the next closest is Townhomes at 19%, then Condos at 9%, followed by manufactured homes at 7% of the total market.

 

What do we see in the short term?
Total home sales should continue at the present pace, while we would like the median price to moderate some. Townhome and Condominiums are the driving force in the 10% median price increase for all homes, mainly because of the smaller size, are priced 10 to 50% lower than a single-family home.
Those that do not see a $400,000 medium priced home in there near future but want to get into home ownership are starting with the Townhomes, Condos and Manufactured homes. As they build equity, and their household incomes and family size grow, the may move into a large home.

 

Total Sales
86001,86004,86005
(all homes, single family, manufactured, townhome and condo)
For the month of June

 

By Price Category


Up to $299,999

  • Homes sold 46
    • -39% decrease
    • 110 homes on the market
      • Up 10% from prior year
    • 3.0 month’s supply of homes on the market
    • Seller Market
      • For a healthy market the experts say we need 6 months

$300,000 to $499,000

  • Homes sold 101
  • 25% increase
  • 243 homes on the market
  • down -2% from prior year
  • 3.8 month’s supply of homes on the market
  • Seller Market
    • For a healthy market the experts say we need 6 months

$500,000 to $699,999

  • Homes sold 22
  • 47% increase
  • 136homes on the market
  • Up 18% from prior year
  • 10.2 month’s supply of homes on the market
  • Buyer’s Market
    • For a healthy market the experts say we need 6 months

$700,000 to $999,999

  • Homes sold 8
  • 14% increase
  • 90 homes on the market
  • Up 20% from prior year
  • 16.4 month’s supply of homes on the market
  • Buyer’s Market
    • For a healthy market the experts say we need 6 months

 $1,000,000 and up

  • Homes sold 4
  • 400% increase
  • 74 homes on the market
  • Up 9% from prior year
  • 20.0 month’s supply of homes on the market
  • Buyer’s Market
    • For a healthy market the experts say we need 6 months

 

 

Broken out


for the area of 86001, 86004, 86005
Single Family, Manufactured, Townhome and Condo
These are Year-To-Date figures thru July 14, 2018

 

Single Family

Number of Sold Listings

  • 2017, 432 homes
  • 2018, 504 homes
  • 16.7% increase


Median Sales price

  • $400,00
  • 3.1% increase

Number of New Listings

  • 829
  • -4.5% decrease

Median List Price

  • $453,500
  • 9.3% increase

DOM(Days on Market), Average

  • 102 for all zips
    • 86001 117 days
    • 86004 69 days
    • 86005 103 days

 

Manufactured

Number of Sold Listings

  • 2017, 56 homes
  • 2018, 51 homes
  • -8.9% decrease

Median Sales price

  • $237,500
  • 3.3% increase

Number of New Listings

  • 77
  • -9.4% Decrease

Median List Price

  • $249,000
  • 6.9% increase
  • DOM(Days on Market), Average
  • 76 for all zips
    • 86001 65 days
    • 86004 104 days
    • 86005 56 days

 

Condominium

Number of Sold Listings

  • 2017, 72 condos’
  • 2018, 69 condos’
  • -4.2% decrease

Median Sales price

  • $208,000
  • 12.7% increase

Number of New Listings

  • 104
  • -6.3% decrease

Median List Price

  • $218,000
  • 11.8% increase
  • DOM(Days on Market), Average
    • 59 for all zips
      • 86001 48 days
      • 86004 57 days
      • 86005 86 days

Townhome

Number of Sold Listings

  • 2017, 160 townhomes
  • 2018, 143 townhomes
  • -10.6% decrease

Median Sales price

  • $353,000
  • 9.3% increase

Number of New Listings

  • 205
  • -9.7% decrease

Median List Price

  • $371,200
  • 12.7% increase

DOM(Days on Market), Average

  • 103 for all zips
    • 86001 106 days
    • 86004 82 days
    • 86005 137 days

 


April and YTD Home Prices Deserve a Deeper Look

(Published on - 6/13/2018 10:30:09 PM)

From Jeff Ross
Realty Executives of Flagstaff
June 2018

 

Home Sales have stayed strong through the first 4 months of the year.
Inventory has still been the nagging trend, but even with that we are selling more homes than the previous year.

Overall Homes Sales, including all categories, Single Family, Manufactured, Condo and Townhomes in the General Flagstaff Area 86001.86004,86005

 

Average Homes prices

  • For the month, up 21.17%
  • Year to date, up 12.62

Median Home prices

  • For the month, up 14.53%
  • Year to date, up 10.86%

Number of Homes Sold

  • For the month of April 126, up 17.8%
  • Year to date, 412 up 17.0

Days on Market

  • Average for the month, 90 days
  • Average Year to date, 109 days

 

 

Home Sales by Price Range


0 to $299,999

  • 39 homes sold
  • -20% fewer than the prior year
  • -9% fewer homes have sold Year to Date
  • 2.29 months supply on hand


$300,000 to $499,999

  • 57 homes sold
  • 21% more than the prior year
  • 30% more homes have sold Year to Date
  • 3.82 months supply on hand


$500,000 to $699,999

  • 17 homes sold
  • 240% more than the prior year
  • 47% more homes have sold Year to Date
  • 9.36 months supply on hand


$700,000 to $999,999

  • 7 homes sold
  • 40% more than the prior year
  • 23% more homes have sold Year to Date
  • 21.25 months supply on had


$1,000,000 and up

  • 6 homes sold
  • 1 the prior year
  • 300% or 12 compared to 3 last year have sold Year to Date
  • 20 months on hand

 

Single Family Homes Sales

 

  •  86 homes sold for the month of April
  • Average price up 21%
  • Median price up 11.5%

 

We then looked at a little differently here to get a more accurate accounting for pricing going back 12 months and only using the Median Price.

Also we used the Fannie Mae 1004MC Statistics that the appraisers are required to use.

Current to 3 months back

  • Median Sales price is $393,028


Prior 4 to 6 months

  • Median Sales price was $380.000


Prior 7-12 months

  • Median Sales price was $387,000

 

Looking at only Average and Median prices and increases do not tell the real story,


Yes the Average increase for the year for all home types is up 12.62%,
But looking a little deeper, we have sold 9% few homes under $300,000 and 32% more homes price between $300,000 and a million.
We are selling a larger number of higher priced homes, bringing up the average and median home price averages.
Homes price under $300,000 only account for a little over 14% of the homes available in Flagstaff which is only a 2.29 months supply of those homes on the market.
The experts in the Real Estate feel that this number to be healthy should be closer to 6 months.
Though in Flagstaff do not see that happening.


There are some homes coming on the market out in Bellemont that may be under $300,000. This is a new development, to date, only 4 have been completed and sold, one of those under $300,000.
There are 27 additional homes under contract in the new section, but final prices will not be released until they close.

 

In Summary,
Homes are selling well in Flagstaff, inventory of homes under $300,000 is still lagging and may continue to through the year.

 


Adventure into the Depths of Death Valley

(Published on - 4/14/2018 6:45:14 PM)

by Jeff Ross
March 2018

 

Thursday, after traveling 6 plus hours, we reach the point of no return, a right off the pavement, and onto a very narrow single lane sand and rocky road, then up that maybe two miles to a spot we could pull off. We are headed into the the Cottonwood/Marble Canyon area of Death Valley
This would be the start of our 27-mile Death Valley hike we have been talking about for years.
Stopping earlier at the Ranger Station, we found we would only had reliable water in two locations over the 5-day trip. We have planned contingencies in place, nothing will deter us.

Little known fact, Since I know you are wondering. There has not been a single death recorded in Death Valley from a Snake bite. With that off the table,

Day one,

We are up early, Goal is on the trail at 8 and accomplished.
Jack and I had our traditional Dog Haus Sausage Breakfast Burro before leaving the vehicle, these are considered by most to be the best Breakfast Burro’s in town.

Today we wanted to get to Cottonwood Spring, one of two water sources according to the ranger, so we each carried 1 1/2 gal of water, or 12 ½ additional pounds to our pack.

A steady climb from 1200 feet to 3400 feet. The first 9-miles was easy hike, though we did discover water at the 9-mile point, which was not expected until the 12-mile point, will tell ranger when we get out in 5 days.
The next 3 plus miles was completely different, the route was not marked well, the Trail in a lot of areas was completely over grown or choked by down trees and limbs.
Weather was good until we hit the 9.5-mile mark and entered the canyon, then the clouds picked up and it felt like wind gust well over 50 mph, we were head right into them. Did not help that we were in a narrow canyon. What was supposed to be an easy hike turned out to be a lot more difficult, with the trail covered with fallen trees, branches, no trail at times. At one point we all huddled behind a huge cottonwood tree just to keep from getting blown over, but alas we had about mile to go.
Windblown we finally got out of the narrow canyon and more open space, with much lighter winds.

Along the way we saw a lot of wild horse or mule sign, but no actual animals.
Late afternoon and at camp, found the spring and camped some distance from, to help preserve the spring.
Tents up, camp set, no fires in the Death Valley area. Dinner tonight was my traditional 1st nights dinner. Nimarco's Pepperoni Pizza. The Pizza is heavier then all the other meals I carry, but early in the hike, am fresh and able??. The night before get the pizza, refrigerate and then wrap 4 individual pieces in foil, keep in the cooler until we start the hike and into the top of my pack, pretty hard to crush pizza and just a nice added touch for the first night

Out a little later this morning, was cold and windy out last night. Cold we can deal with, but gusty strong winds just chilled to the bone. This is Death Valley, and this was the last thing we planned for, but survived.

Day Two,

Today’s hike will be up a gentle climb to 5200 feet, over 5 miles, easy hike. no trail, so used the GPS as the guide. As we climbed to the pass, all seemed fine, to the pass and down into the ravine, and to the bottom of canyon.


At that point things just did not seem right?
The canyon was clogged with undergrowth, no one had been into the valley for a very long time. Had we taken the wrong turn into the valley? Or were we in the wrong valley all together. We were maybe 4 miles from where we thought we would come out after descending into the valley.
At this point, the concern was not as much, were we lost? Hard for that to happen if we are following the GPS loop that will take us to the start point, but the initial confusion was there.

Our main worry? was there something in the canyon in front of us we could not navigate. We pushed on, through dense brush, over huge rocks, up the sides of the canyon to bypass areas we could not hike through, then to our surprise we ran into a 15 ft pour over. Fortunately, Jack had some rope, we roped our packs over the edge and gentle scurried down. The rest of the canyon was uneventful and finally made it to the point we should have entered into Dead Horse Canyon.
In reality, my error. We were in the right canyon, but I had the route set to high up the canyon, so down the wrong ravine.
We ended up going were no Man or Women has gone before or dare go again. ??
But alas, things happen, we knew exactly where we were, and just had to hike some 4 miles extra.
We even got to see a Gray Fox scurry up a hill side, wanting nothing to do with us.

Finally, at camp, the day had been windy and cold and camp tonight will be no exception, we are in a canyon and the wind blew all night. We all got our tents up, but the area was wide open, no trees or shelter to keep our tents from being buffeted from the winds. We each fixed out dinners, mine was bean and beef burritos, with cheese, salsa, and crunched up Fritos. This may be the best outback meal i fix for this trip.
Dinner over by 6.30, with the cold and wind, we all headed to our tents. I always take my Kindle, one of the best Backpacking items you can take, light with plenty of reading.
Tomorrow will be a new day.

Last night Mother Nature showed us not to complain about to wind and cold. At 1:30 in the morning she threw some snow at us, fortunate just a little taste to show what she can do, even in Death Valley.

Day Three,

A lot later start today, cool at maybe 25 or so last night.
This morning I had one of my best breakfasts ever, compote freeze-dried strawberry’s, and my dehydrated pancakes. Even Deb and Jack had some and raved about, this may be in future meal plans.
Not in a rush this morning, heck only had to hike an hour or so our next Camp, Marble Canyon. Once there we found great camp spots with water only 10 minutes away. Once camp was set we decided to explore Marble Canyon and its 3 side canyons. There was supposed to be 3 springs up these canyons, only found one. Got brushed out in 1 canyon, and a pour over 20 feet high in another, another did not show much promise, but we had fun explore the canyons and after 7 or so miles we were back at camp by 4:30, so full day.
Getting water, fixing dinner, talking about our day, and planning tomorrow took the rest of the evening.
The night was peaceful until the it got nice and dark, then the friendly Great Horned Owl out there someplace starting to do its Hooting thing, and kept it up every 30 seconds or so, for hours it seemed, finally we drifted to sleep only to hear that same owl right before dawn.
wonderopolis.org says;
‘the easily-recognizable hoot you're familiar with is usually a territorial call. Heard for miles around, hoots declare a claim to a particular territory and serves as a warning to other owls to stay away’
Yesterday we saw some hikers, today, not a single person in sight.
Tomorrow may be our last night in Death Valley.

Day Four,

Up early and on the trail, Great hike down narrow section of Marble Canyon, as the pictures show, very narrow and high, at one point a huge ‘choke block’ in the middle, necessitating a hike around. As you see, tried to move out of the way, but a tad to large.
Another Positive, another day without seeing anyone.
By midafternoon we were back at the car. The plan was to find a spot that we could spread out our sleeping bags and relax for our last night out.
Things went smooth with that plan for the most part, we found a place, we all set up our tents and fixed our dinners.

Deb normally will fix some steel cut oats, put them in water in her cooking pan, put a rock on top of and let soak all night, ready for her in the morning. Has worked for a lot of trips,
Well, things changed on this trip. We all woke up about 1:30 in the morning to Deb very loudly trying to shoo something away from her tent. She was shouting, pounding on rocks, throwing rocks, banging on things but to no avail.
Looking out, we see 3 very cute Desert Kit Fox’s, and they were enjoying Debs Oatmeal. Somehow, they got the rock off and had a great meal, all the while Deb doing her best to scare them off, which they had nothing to do with that. We got a good laugh at Debs Breakfast expense.

They were really cute though and Deb was throwing things at the Fox, REALLY?, it was just Oatmeal…
A great way to end our time in Death Valley, we hope to come back again.

Daring Deb, Jumping Jack Flash, Karyn, and I, Chef Jazzy Jeff hope to be out again.

 

Side Note:
Guess I should explain our trail names.

The Rules: you cannot give one to yourself, they need to have something to do with your hiking demeanor and must rhyme some.
Deb is fearless, Jack dresses well and bring tons of stuff, I make my own meals and they tend to be far better than the package meals, and Karyn, well she does not have one yet, this was her first hike with us. We will see if she comes back, or did we scare her off??


Strong 2017 Final Flagstaff Home Sales Report

(Published on - 1/24/2018 6:56:55 PM)

by Jeff Ross
Realty Executives of Flagstaff
January 2018

 

Home Sales for Flagstaff over the past 12 months have been good. I have attached a chart below that will give you a very good idea of what our market has done.

As we move into 2018, the experts in the Real Estate field feel we may be in for another good Housing market. 
You will also find interesting comments below the first set of charts from those experts.

As the year progresses, keep a watch out for my blogs which will keep you up to date on our market.

 

2017 Final Sales for Flagstaff General Area
(86001, 86004, 86005, 86015)

 

Single Family Homes
 

Number of Homes Sold                          982            +2.29%
Average Price                                         $436,509    +3.5%
Average Sq ft of sold homes                   2154 sq. ft. -2.2%
Average Sold Per sq ft Price                   $205.41       +7.2%
These homes account for 63.6% of the total homes sold


All Home Sales

(Single Family, Townhome, Condo, Manufactured)

 

All Homes Average Sales Price                   $378,953
All Homes Average Price Increase              +6.34%

 

Homes up to $299,999


Numbers sold                                             561
Compared to Prior year                             -17.5%
Current Absorption Rate                            1.68 months supply on hand
These homes account for 36.3% of the total homes sold


Homes $300,000 to $499,000


Numbers sold                                            747
Compared to Prior year                            +17.5%
Current Absorption Rate                           2.90 months supply on hand
These homes account for 48.4% of the total homes sold

 

Homes $500,000 to $699,000


Numbers sold                                           149
Compared to Prior year                           +25.3%
Current Absorption Rate                          8.5 months supply on hand
These homes account for 9.7% of the total homes sold

 

Homes $700,000 to $999,000


Numbers sold                                            67
Compared to Prior year                            +13.5%
Current Absorption Rate                           9.85 months supply on hand
These homes account for 4.3% of the total homes sold

 

Homes $1,000,000 and up


Numbers sold                                            20
Compared to Prior year                            +5.26%
Current Absorption Rate                           36.5 months supply on hand
These homes account for 1.3% of the total homes sold

 

Townhomes Breakdown


Number of Homes Sold                          324           +13.68%
Average Price                                        $332,194   +12.9%
Average Sq ft of sold homes                 1689 sq. ft.   4.1%
Average Sold Per sq ft Price                 $205.41      +195.11%
These homes account for 21.0% of the total homes sold

 

Condominium


Number of Homes Sold                      119           -13.1%
Average Price                                   $194.360  +9.0%
Average Sq ft of sold homes              916 sq. ft. -1.0%
Average Sold Per sq ft Price            $218.03 +10.7%
These homes account for 7.8% of the total homes sold

 

Manufactured


Number of Homes Sold                   104 -14.8%
Average Price                                  $227,102 +10.4%
Average Sq ft of sold homes            1426 sq. ft. -1.3%
Average Sold Per sq ft Price            $161.24 +11.0%
These homes account for 6.7% of the total homes sold

 

 

 


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