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April and YTD Home Prices Deserve a Deeper Look

(Published on - 6/13/2018 10:30:09 PM)

From Jeff Ross
Realty Executives of Flagstaff
June 2018

 

Home Sales have stayed strong through the first 4 months of the year.
Inventory has still been the nagging trend, but even with that we are selling more homes than the previous year.

Overall Homes Sales, including all categories, Single Family, Manufactured, Condo and Townhomes in the General Flagstaff Area 86001.86004,86005

 

Average Homes prices

  • For the month, up 21.17%
  • Year to date, up 12.62

Median Home prices

  • For the month, up 14.53%
  • Year to date, up 10.86%

Number of Homes Sold

  • For the month of April 126, up 17.8%
  • Year to date, 412 up 17.0

Days on Market

  • Average for the month, 90 days
  • Average Year to date, 109 days

 

 

Home Sales by Price Range


0 to $299,999

  • 39 homes sold
  • -20% fewer than the prior year
  • -9% fewer homes have sold Year to Date
  • 2.29 months supply on hand


$300,000 to $499,999

  • 57 homes sold
  • 21% more than the prior year
  • 30% more homes have sold Year to Date
  • 3.82 months supply on hand


$500,000 to $699,999

  • 17 homes sold
  • 240% more than the prior year
  • 47% more homes have sold Year to Date
  • 9.36 months supply on hand


$700,000 to $999,999

  • 7 homes sold
  • 40% more than the prior year
  • 23% more homes have sold Year to Date
  • 21.25 months supply on had


$1,000,000 and up

  • 6 homes sold
  • 1 the prior year
  • 300% or 12 compared to 3 last year have sold Year to Date
  • 20 months on hand

 

Single Family Homes Sales

 

  •  86 homes sold for the month of April
  • Average price up 21%
  • Median price up 11.5%

 

We then looked at a little differently here to get a more accurate accounting for pricing going back 12 months and only using the Median Price.

Also we used the Fannie Mae 1004MC Statistics that the appraisers are required to use.

Current to 3 months back

  • Median Sales price is $393,028


Prior 4 to 6 months

  • Median Sales price was $380.000


Prior 7-12 months

  • Median Sales price was $387,000

 

Looking at only Average and Median prices and increases do not tell the real story,


Yes the Average increase for the year for all home types is up 12.62%,
But looking a little deeper, we have sold 9% few homes under $300,000 and 32% more homes price between $300,000 and a million.
We are selling a larger number of higher priced homes, bringing up the average and median home price averages.
Homes price under $300,000 only account for a little over 14% of the homes available in Flagstaff which is only a 2.29 months supply of those homes on the market.
The experts in the Real Estate feel that this number to be healthy should be closer to 6 months.
Though in Flagstaff do not see that happening.


There are some homes coming on the market out in Bellemont that may be under $300,000. This is a new development, to date, only 4 have been completed and sold, one of those under $300,000.
There are 27 additional homes under contract in the new section, but final prices will not be released until they close.

 

In Summary,
Homes are selling well in Flagstaff, inventory of homes under $300,000 is still lagging and may continue to through the year.

 


Adventure into the Depths of Death Valley

(Published on - 4/14/2018 6:45:14 PM)

by Jeff Ross
March 2018

 

Thursday, after traveling 6 plus hours, we reach the point of no return, a right off the pavement, and onto a very narrow single lane sand and rocky road, then up that maybe two miles to a spot we could pull off. We are headed into the the Cottonwood/Marble Canyon area of Death Valley
This would be the start of our 27-mile Death Valley hike we have been talking about for years.
Stopping earlier at the Ranger Station, we found we would only had reliable water in two locations over the 5-day trip. We have planned contingencies in place, nothing will deter us.

Little known fact, Since I know you are wondering. There has not been a single death recorded in Death Valley from a Snake bite. With that off the table,

Day one,

We are up early, Goal is on the trail at 8 and accomplished.
Jack and I had our traditional Dog Haus Sausage Breakfast Burro before leaving the vehicle, these are considered by most to be the best Breakfast Burro’s in town.

Today we wanted to get to Cottonwood Spring, one of two water sources according to the ranger, so we each carried 1 1/2 gal of water, or 12 ½ additional pounds to our pack.

A steady climb from 1200 feet to 3400 feet. The first 9-miles was easy hike, though we did discover water at the 9-mile point, which was not expected until the 12-mile point, will tell ranger when we get out in 5 days.
The next 3 plus miles was completely different, the route was not marked well, the Trail in a lot of areas was completely over grown or choked by down trees and limbs.
Weather was good until we hit the 9.5-mile mark and entered the canyon, then the clouds picked up and it felt like wind gust well over 50 mph, we were head right into them. Did not help that we were in a narrow canyon. What was supposed to be an easy hike turned out to be a lot more difficult, with the trail covered with fallen trees, branches, no trail at times. At one point we all huddled behind a huge cottonwood tree just to keep from getting blown over, but alas we had about mile to go.
Windblown we finally got out of the narrow canyon and more open space, with much lighter winds.

Along the way we saw a lot of wild horse or mule sign, but no actual animals.
Late afternoon and at camp, found the spring and camped some distance from, to help preserve the spring.
Tents up, camp set, no fires in the Death Valley area. Dinner tonight was my traditional 1st nights dinner. Nimarco's Pepperoni Pizza. The Pizza is heavier then all the other meals I carry, but early in the hike, am fresh and able??. The night before get the pizza, refrigerate and then wrap 4 individual pieces in foil, keep in the cooler until we start the hike and into the top of my pack, pretty hard to crush pizza and just a nice added touch for the first night

Out a little later this morning, was cold and windy out last night. Cold we can deal with, but gusty strong winds just chilled to the bone. This is Death Valley, and this was the last thing we planned for, but survived.

Day Two,

Today’s hike will be up a gentle climb to 5200 feet, over 5 miles, easy hike. no trail, so used the GPS as the guide. As we climbed to the pass, all seemed fine, to the pass and down into the ravine, and to the bottom of canyon.


At that point things just did not seem right?
The canyon was clogged with undergrowth, no one had been into the valley for a very long time. Had we taken the wrong turn into the valley? Or were we in the wrong valley all together. We were maybe 4 miles from where we thought we would come out after descending into the valley.
At this point, the concern was not as much, were we lost? Hard for that to happen if we are following the GPS loop that will take us to the start point, but the initial confusion was there.

Our main worry? was there something in the canyon in front of us we could not navigate. We pushed on, through dense brush, over huge rocks, up the sides of the canyon to bypass areas we could not hike through, then to our surprise we ran into a 15 ft pour over. Fortunately, Jack had some rope, we roped our packs over the edge and gentle scurried down. The rest of the canyon was uneventful and finally made it to the point we should have entered into Dead Horse Canyon.
In reality, my error. We were in the right canyon, but I had the route set to high up the canyon, so down the wrong ravine.
We ended up going were no Man or Women has gone before or dare go again. ??
But alas, things happen, we knew exactly where we were, and just had to hike some 4 miles extra.
We even got to see a Gray Fox scurry up a hill side, wanting nothing to do with us.

Finally, at camp, the day had been windy and cold and camp tonight will be no exception, we are in a canyon and the wind blew all night. We all got our tents up, but the area was wide open, no trees or shelter to keep our tents from being buffeted from the winds. We each fixed out dinners, mine was bean and beef burritos, with cheese, salsa, and crunched up Fritos. This may be the best outback meal i fix for this trip.
Dinner over by 6.30, with the cold and wind, we all headed to our tents. I always take my Kindle, one of the best Backpacking items you can take, light with plenty of reading.
Tomorrow will be a new day.

Last night Mother Nature showed us not to complain about to wind and cold. At 1:30 in the morning she threw some snow at us, fortunate just a little taste to show what she can do, even in Death Valley.

Day Three,

A lot later start today, cool at maybe 25 or so last night.
This morning I had one of my best breakfasts ever, compote freeze-dried strawberry’s, and my dehydrated pancakes. Even Deb and Jack had some and raved about, this may be in future meal plans.
Not in a rush this morning, heck only had to hike an hour or so our next Camp, Marble Canyon. Once there we found great camp spots with water only 10 minutes away. Once camp was set we decided to explore Marble Canyon and its 3 side canyons. There was supposed to be 3 springs up these canyons, only found one. Got brushed out in 1 canyon, and a pour over 20 feet high in another, another did not show much promise, but we had fun explore the canyons and after 7 or so miles we were back at camp by 4:30, so full day.
Getting water, fixing dinner, talking about our day, and planning tomorrow took the rest of the evening.
The night was peaceful until the it got nice and dark, then the friendly Great Horned Owl out there someplace starting to do its Hooting thing, and kept it up every 30 seconds or so, for hours it seemed, finally we drifted to sleep only to hear that same owl right before dawn.
wonderopolis.org says;
‘the easily-recognizable hoot you're familiar with is usually a territorial call. Heard for miles around, hoots declare a claim to a particular territory and serves as a warning to other owls to stay away’
Yesterday we saw some hikers, today, not a single person in sight.
Tomorrow may be our last night in Death Valley.

Day Four,

Up early and on the trail, Great hike down narrow section of Marble Canyon, as the pictures show, very narrow and high, at one point a huge ‘choke block’ in the middle, necessitating a hike around. As you see, tried to move out of the way, but a tad to large.
Another Positive, another day without seeing anyone.
By midafternoon we were back at the car. The plan was to find a spot that we could spread out our sleeping bags and relax for our last night out.
Things went smooth with that plan for the most part, we found a place, we all set up our tents and fixed our dinners.

Deb normally will fix some steel cut oats, put them in water in her cooking pan, put a rock on top of and let soak all night, ready for her in the morning. Has worked for a lot of trips,
Well, things changed on this trip. We all woke up about 1:30 in the morning to Deb very loudly trying to shoo something away from her tent. She was shouting, pounding on rocks, throwing rocks, banging on things but to no avail.
Looking out, we see 3 very cute Desert Kit Fox’s, and they were enjoying Debs Oatmeal. Somehow, they got the rock off and had a great meal, all the while Deb doing her best to scare them off, which they had nothing to do with that. We got a good laugh at Debs Breakfast expense.

They were really cute though and Deb was throwing things at the Fox, REALLY?, it was just Oatmeal…
A great way to end our time in Death Valley, we hope to come back again.

Daring Deb, Jumping Jack Flash, Karyn, and I, Chef Jazzy Jeff hope to be out again.

 

Side Note:
Guess I should explain our trail names.

The Rules: you cannot give one to yourself, they need to have something to do with your hiking demeanor and must rhyme some.
Deb is fearless, Jack dresses well and bring tons of stuff, I make my own meals and they tend to be far better than the package meals, and Karyn, well she does not have one yet, this was her first hike with us. We will see if she comes back, or did we scare her off??


Strong 2017 Final Flagstaff Home Sales Report

(Published on - 1/24/2018 6:56:55 PM)

by Jeff Ross
Realty Executives of Flagstaff
January 2018

 

Home Sales for Flagstaff over the past 12 months have been good. I have attached a chart below that will give you a very good idea of what our market has done.

As we move into 2018, the experts in the Real Estate field feel we may be in for another good Housing market. 
You will also find interesting comments below the first set of charts from those experts.

As the year progresses, keep a watch out for my blogs which will keep you up to date on our market.

 

2017 Final Sales for Flagstaff General Area
(86001, 86004, 86005, 86015)

 

Single Family Homes
 

Number of Homes Sold                          982            +2.29%
Average Price                                         $436,509    +3.5%
Average Sq ft of sold homes                   2154 sq. ft. -2.2%
Average Sold Per sq ft Price                   $205.41       +7.2%
These homes account for 63.6% of the total homes sold


All Home Sales

(Single Family, Townhome, Condo, Manufactured)

 

All Homes Average Sales Price                   $378,953
All Homes Average Price Increase              +6.34%

 

Homes up to $299,999


Numbers sold                                             561
Compared to Prior year                             -17.5%
Current Absorption Rate                            1.68 months supply on hand
These homes account for 36.3% of the total homes sold


Homes $300,000 to $499,000


Numbers sold                                            747
Compared to Prior year                            +17.5%
Current Absorption Rate                           2.90 months supply on hand
These homes account for 48.4% of the total homes sold

 

Homes $500,000 to $699,000


Numbers sold                                           149
Compared to Prior year                           +25.3%
Current Absorption Rate                          8.5 months supply on hand
These homes account for 9.7% of the total homes sold

 

Homes $700,000 to $999,000


Numbers sold                                            67
Compared to Prior year                            +13.5%
Current Absorption Rate                           9.85 months supply on hand
These homes account for 4.3% of the total homes sold

 

Homes $1,000,000 and up


Numbers sold                                            20
Compared to Prior year                            +5.26%
Current Absorption Rate                           36.5 months supply on hand
These homes account for 1.3% of the total homes sold

 

Townhomes Breakdown


Number of Homes Sold                          324           +13.68%
Average Price                                        $332,194   +12.9%
Average Sq ft of sold homes                 1689 sq. ft.   4.1%
Average Sold Per sq ft Price                 $205.41      +195.11%
These homes account for 21.0% of the total homes sold

 

Condominium


Number of Homes Sold                      119           -13.1%
Average Price                                   $194.360  +9.0%
Average Sq ft of sold homes              916 sq. ft. -1.0%
Average Sold Per sq ft Price            $218.03 +10.7%
These homes account for 7.8% of the total homes sold

 

Manufactured


Number of Homes Sold                   104 -14.8%
Average Price                                  $227,102 +10.4%
Average Sq ft of sold homes            1426 sq. ft. -1.3%
Average Sold Per sq ft Price            $161.24 +11.0%
These homes account for 6.7% of the total homes sold

 

 

 


Year End Home Sales and Pricing will be Positive for 2017

(Published on - 12/26/2017 8:10:35 PM)

by Jeff Ross

Realty Executives of Flagstaff
January 2018

 

We will focus on the 11 out of 12-month report for Flagstaff Homes Sales.

With only one month to go and December last year only accounting for a little less than 8% of the homes sales for the month, we should be able to give you a very good estimate on how the year will turn out.
So the following will be Year-to-Date ending November 30th.
This includes all homes, Single Family, Townhome, Condo, and Manufactured and in the general 86001,86004,86005 and 86015 Bellemont unless otherwise noted.

Our Home Sales may be close to flat, we are currently at a 1% increase in the total number of homes sold.

Our Average Price for homes sold is currently up 6.19%

When we look at price categories,

Up to $300,000                  we sold -18% fewer homes, or 515 homes
                                            This price range has a 36.5% market share
$300,000 to $500,000        we sold 17% more homes, 688 homes
                                            This price range has a 48.8% market share
$500,000 to $700,000        we sold 13% more homes, 130 homes
                                            This price range has a 9.2% market share
$700,000 to 1 million          we sold 27% more homes,61 homes
                                            This price range has a 4.3% market share
And above 1 million            home sales were flat, 18 homes
                                            This price range has a 1.3% market share
We have sold YTD 1412 homes in the above noted area.

Digging a little deeper into the 6.19% increase in home prices,

I broke out sales into the following types of homes.
Again, as mentioned above, in the overall areas of 86001, 86004, 86005, 86015.

 

Single Family Homes

Sold 1.5% more homes
Prices are up 3.28% to $435,267
Price per sq. ft. is up 7.36% to $204.97
Average size of home is down to 2155 sq. ft. a decrease of 2.5%

 

Townhomes and Condos

Sold 1.7% more homes
Prices are up 15.31% to $285,976
Price per sq. ft. is up 7.82% to $197.89
Average size of the home is up to 1456 sq. ft. an increase of 5.9%

Manufactured Homes

Sold -3.6% few homes this year
Prices are up 13.04% to $191,828
Price per sq. ft. is up 9.4% to $134.98
Average size of the home is up to 1448 sq. ft., an increase of 2.2%

Absorption RateAs we closed out November, our Absorption Rate, the number of months it would take to sell all the homes is still sub 6 months and holding at 4.21 months.

The experts in the real estate field feel that 6% is a health market, anything less and it is a Seller’s market, anything more and it is a Buyer’s market. We cover both ends of that spectrum.

 

Homes price under $300,000

we have 2 months supply on hand, a Strong Seller’s Market
Homes from $300,000 to $500,000
,
we have a 3.1 months supply, a Strong Seller’s Market
Homes from $500,000 to $700,000,
we have 9.6 months supply, a Buyer’s market
Homes from $700,000 to $1Million,
we have 10.7 months supply, a Buyer’s market

Homes over $1 million,
we have 41.3 months supply a Strong Buyer’s market

What Happens in 2018?

400

 

 

I would expect to see a similar trends as noted above in inventory and sales. Interest rates are expected to climb toward 5% by the end of the year, but should not cause to much of a difference in the number of homes sold, or pricing.

As we have this year, buyers looking under $450,000 or so will continue to be chasing homes as they come on the market and should be prepared to react with a local lender prequalification in hand when the right homes comes on the market that fits thier needs.

 

 

 

November Sales Year to Date

November Sales Year to Date 2


Flagstaff Home Sales Stay Strong through October

(Published on - 11/29/2017 5:15:26 PM)

by Jeff Ross
Realty Executives of Flagstaff
December 2017

Home sales as we close 2017 through October are staying strong.

For October, we sold 13.8% more homes in the general Flagstaff area.
The average Sales price for the month was extremely strong with a 16.37% increasing, bringing our year-to-date up to a sold 6.6% increase in home prices.
As mentioned before, these figures include all home sales, Single Family, Townhome, Condo, and Manufactured homes.

I get asked a lot about a housing bubble, so I dug up 6 different quotes from different sources. 

 

Our inventory has slipped a little, down to 616 available homes on the market or 2.7% fewer than the previous year.

  

Occasionally we discuss the Distressed Housing Market, those homes in Foreclosure/Bank Owned and Short Sale status.
This market is gone in Flagstaff, currently we have 2 Bank Owned homes on the market and 1 Short Sale home. Those three homes account for .45% of the homes on the market, so less than 1/2 of 1%. When you are looking for a home, in most all searches, these will come up as the default setting will include this category of homes.

  

Single Family Homes

A similar strong trended in sales here overall.
For the month of October, we sold 23% more homes and prices were up 16%.
Year-to-Date, we have sold 7% more homes and our prices have climbed 3.41%, to $434,996, up from $420,650.
Year-to-date home sizes decreased by 1.7% with the average home size this year at 2145 sq. ft., compared to 2016, at 2183 sq. ft.

 Digging a little Deeper

Inventory is still plaguing the home under $300,000, with 22% fewer homes on the market, which is pushing down the number of sales by 18%.
Along with that, we are down to a 2.3 months supply of homes on the market for category of homes under $300,000.
This is the number of months it would take to sell all homes on the market. As I have mentioned before, the experts in the Real Estate field feel a 6 months supply is healthy, under 6 months, it is a seller’s market, over a buyer’s market.
Homes between $300,000 and $500,000 showed much stronger sales with a 33% increase and accomplishing this with 9% fewer homes on the market.
Here again with 3.3 month’s supply of homes on hand, we are in a strong seller’s market.
We move up above $500,000 and the sales trends are still strong, just in smaller numbers, Inventory’s of available homes increase, and the number of months on had climb well above the 6-month healthy market number and move from a strong seller’s market, to a strong buyer’s market.

As we move into 2018, I expect this year’s trend to continue with tight inventories under $300,000, inventories still a little concerning from $300,000 to $500,000.

 

We do have at least one new development coming on line for 2018. This development may have some homes under the $300,000 mark. If this peaks your interest, give me a shout and we can discuss the timelines as they have explained to me.

 

As we move into 2018, Pricing should continue to follow this year’s trend, with moderate growth.

  

As you are planning for 2018, and would like help getting a handle on the estimated value of your current home please never hesitate to reach out, I am always here to help.

 

 


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