Jeff Ross
Imagine you’re chatting with your neighbors, and they ask, “Hey, do you happen to know a good dentist?”
How would you respond?
Well, you wouldn’t recommend just anyone, would you? Instead, you’d probably only recommend a dentist worthy of that recommendation… someone who is good at what they do and consistently provides great service.
In other words, someone who is referral-worthy.
That word – referral-worthy – is very important in our business. It describes the kind of real estate agents Jeff and I strive to be.
It’s why we work so hard for our clients, helping them sell their properties successfully, while working with them to find their dream homes.
It’s also why we continue to stay in touch with clients, and make sure we are always “there” for them when they have questions or need advice.
We hope you feel that qualifies us as referral-worthy! If so, please pass our names along to anyone who may be looking for an excellent real estate agent. We’d really appreciate it!
2022 was a changing year in Real Estate for Flagstaff.
Home prices at the beginning of the year raced out to a 28% increase the first two quarters of 2022 over 2021, but slowed to a -2.3% decrease for the 4th quarter of the year. Year over Year, we still showed a 14% increased, but only because of the strong 1st half of the year.
The attached chart will give you a lot of insight into how the year changed.
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Throughout 2022, the market did an ‘about-face’ in several categories.
At the end of the 2nd quarter, homes were selling at 4% higher than list price, but the end of the 4th quarter, that had changed to 2.38% less than list price. This also affected the price per sq ft, which dropped to $341.83 sq ft in 4th quarter 2022 down from $388.22 sq ft in 2022.
Days on Market started in the 1st quarter slightly less than the year before, but by the end of the 4th quarter grew to almost 2 weeks longer to sell. Though with this said, if we look back 5 years to 2018, the median Days on Market was 68 days, so just two days longer than 4th quarter of 2022 and still 5 days shorter than 2018 for the first 7 weeks of this year, which is at 63 days.
What is in store for 2023, well that Crystal Ball is still a little fuzzy,
We can say a few things,
Interest rates
We have reached out to Chris Hallows at Wallick & Volk Lending to help us in this ever-changing world of Home Mortgages. his Crystal Ball says:
"Mark May 10 in the calendars!
Based on year over a year inflation calculations, experts believe that the April inflation readings that will be shared in the May 10 report will show very positive and sustaining signs that inflation is lowering and this should move rates meaningly lower.
Experts anticipate that we will be in the mid-5’s by the summertime and possibly even Into mid-4's by the end of the year."
Again, an ever-moving target, so time will tell.
The number of homes on the market today is higher than we have seen over the past few years and sitting at 137 as we write this. This is up from somewhere in the 50’s during this same time the last couple of years.
Since the first of the year, Sold Prices are at 1% less than List prices, with Year-to-Date Median sold price sitting at $577,000, or down -6.9%
We do not expect this to change much the first half of 2023, since as the chart above shows Sales prices in 2022 up 28% over those first two quarters.
Once we get to mid-summer, depending on a lot of factors out of our control, we may start to see home prices trending slightly higher, but..... we would not expect to see the 28% increases we saw in the first part of 2022.
Am sure this brings up a lot of questions, so please never hesitate to reach out to either of us.
Best Wishes and be Careful during our impending Snow some coming.
Renée and Jeff
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Renee Gaun * Jeff Ross 928-606-6232 Renee
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15 E. Cherry Ave |
December is definitely the most popular month for making plans!
If you’re like most homeowners, you’re looking ahead to the new year with hopes and dreams — and perhaps even a few specific goals.
There are likely things you’d like to get done. You may have milestones you hope to reach and accomplishments you aim to attain.
Whatever your plans, we’ll be cheering you on!
But, we may be able to do even more than that.
Say, for example, you want to get some work done around the house. Maybe you have plans for a few improvements, or perhaps a bigger renovation. If that’s the case, give us a call. We may be able to recommend a good contractor.
And, of course, if you’re entertaining the idea of selling and finding your next dream home in 2023, we’re here to help. We can provide you with the market data and insights you need to make an informed decision. If you do decide to move, we can make that happen for you — smoothly and successfully.
So, keep us in mind when you’re making your plans for the new year. We’re a real estate resource you can tap into.
Have a wonderful new year.
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Renee Gaun * Jeff Ross 928-606-6232 Renee
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15 E. Cherry Ave |
The ancient Greek philosopher, Heraclitus, said, “Change is the only constant in life.” Well, that’s certainly true, especially in today's Real Estate market,
Things change. Often!
Kids get older. People take on new hobbies. Careers evolve.
As a result, a house that was perfect when the owners originally purchased it may no longer be ideal. That can be the reality even if they’ve only been living there for a short time.
While you may not be in that situation now, you might be in the next few months or years. When that happens, you can count on us to help.
In fact, there are a couple of ways we can work with you as your house needs evolve.
For example, if you need to renovate, we may be able to recommend a good contractor. And, of course, if you need to find a new, “more perfect” home, we can work with you to make that happen.
Just know that Renee and I are here to help ensure your home continues to be the ideal place for you.
So, when you have questions or need advice, reach out to us.
A little update on Jeff and Sue, before digging into the changes in the current Flagstaff Housing Market.
Since we semi-retired and turned most of the day-to-day Real Estate operations over to Renée September of last year, we have been working hard at retirement.
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After 14 months, not sure we have it all figured out yet, but can say we have given it a good try by traveling in and out of the states, visiting our kids and grandkids, taking up a new hobby: bikepacking, and getting in some serious backpacking. Sue going to the gym, traveling to Quilt Fairs and completing some Gorgeous Quilts. |
Let’s move on to some Real Estate news.
As we move into more detail, unless we specify, we will be talking about the general Flagstaff and surrounding areas and will be talking about residential homes including Single Family, Townhome, Condo, and Manufactured homes.
You have been reading all the national news and, in reality Flagstaff is not too far off.
One of the most telling facts is the Sales Price received ‘Compared To’ the List Price.
Going back to December 2019, homes were selling in the 98.8% of list price, so slightly under.
By February 2020 that figure climbed to 99.5% of List price and hovered in the 99% range till October of 2020 when it hit 101.1%, meaning that homes sold for 1.1% higher than list price.
To Clarify, 100% would mean the home sold at list price.
For the next 20 months we saw this happen monthly, with a peak in March of 2022 to 104.6%
Now that 4.6% over list price may not seem like a lot, but with a Median Sales Price that month of $620,000, that amount Averaged over $28,500 per home over list price, this is a significant amount. Yes, you may have heard of much Higher, and there were those you did not hear about, that were lower.
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Changes came fast in early to Mid-2022, partly because of rising mortgage rates. In June homes selling at 101.6% over listing to July homes selling under list at 99.6% and by October of 2022, was down to 98.1% of list price.. Again, a significant amount since the Median price home price in October 2022 was $673,000 so a reduction of 1.9% in price amounts to -$12,787. |
Home prices for the first 10 months of 2022 are still at an increase of 15.7%, August being the only month that showed a decrease in the median values of homes sold, and that was only -1.4%.
Do Not expect this +15.7% increase in Median price to continue. The first quarter of the year, we hovered at an increase of +30%, and has dropped significantly since to our currently year-to-date of 15.7%
So far this year we have sold -22.8% few homes than 2021 and -12.7% fewer homes have come to the market.
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Couple of other interesting facts,as referenced above, in October 2020, we hit 101.1% of list price, that month, the Median Home price was $497,000, selling at $248 a sq ft, with only 84 active homes on the market looking for a buyer. Fast forward 2 years to October 2022 the Median Home price is at $672,702, selling at $363 a sq ft, with 244 active homes on the market looking for a buyer. |
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Lastly, what has happened in the past 5 years:
If we go back to 2018, our median home prices have increase 69.4%, from $369,000 in 2018, to today thru the first 10 months of the year to $625,000. We are selling -14.1% fewer homes, and -15.9% fewer homes are coming to the market.
Cash sales have slightly increased from 24.2% in 2018 to this year to date of 28.9%
We hope this helps give you a broad overview of what has happened this year in the market.
As Always, if you have question, please know we are both here for any questions.
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Renee Gaun * Jeff Ross 928-606-6232 Renee
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15 E. Cherry Ave |
Imagine you meet someone new and, during the conversation, you ask what they do for a living. They answer, “I’m a plumber.” Chances are, you immediately conjure an image of them installing pipes or fixing leaks.
But, you also know they probably do much more.
A similar thing happens to us occasionally. Someone will ask what we do, and we tell them we are real estate agents. They then immediately assume we help people buy and sell homes.
And, of course, that’s true! But, we actually do much more for our clients.
For example, we are there for clients when they have questions or need advice, even during the years between moves.
We are also available to clients when they need a recommendation. For example, if you’re looking for a good contractor for an upgrade you’re planning for your home, we can probably give you a name.
And, we also keep my clients informed with valuable market updates, tips, and how-to articles. (That’s why we send you this e-Newsletter each month.)
The bottom line is, We are there for you throughout the homeownership journey, helping ensure you’re always in a property that matches your lifestyle and goals.
Update to Flagstaff Home Sales
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Though an added note to this, if we compare this year's home sales to 2019, we're only selling -2% fewer homes, and possibly back to a more normalized homes sales trend. |
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Until recently, the reason for this was lack of available inventory. For example, early in 2022 we only had 41 homes on the market and at that time we should have seen 400-500 homes. Today that number has climbed to just under 300 homes in the general Flagstaff area, a huge jump. |
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With inventory increasing one might think that home values would start to decline but the median home price in Flagstaff's active inventory is $725,900. The median price of homes sold this year-to-date is $650,000, up 25.6%. Homes on the market are 11% higher than the median for the year. Couple the higher home price with the interest rates that are hovering at 5.5% or so, that means that a mortgage payment could be as much as $600-$700 more a month. |
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Another interesting fact is that increase in home prices have slowed down as we progress into the year. The month of January, home prices rose 29.2%, while June the increase dropped to 17.3% and July month-to-date they are up at 2.5%.
We have attached a chart that breaks down sales through July 19th by home type, along with a final chart at the bottom showing home sales of all types by price range. You will see that homes sales have shifted from under $700,000 to over $700,000.
This is a very fast changing market. If you have questions, please never hesitate to reach out to Renee or Jeff with any questions.
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Renee Gaun * Jeff Ross 928-606-6232 Renee
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15 E. Cherry Ave |
Here’s something that probably won’t surprise you…
Numerous studies confirm that people looking for a professional, such as a roofing contractor, trust recommendations more than advertising.
Like I said, there’s no surprise there!
It’s becoming more and more common for people to ask friends and neighbors for recommendations when they’re looking for a professional. In fact, it’s one of the more common types of posts on community Facebook pages.
Why am I bringing this up?
As you may know, I’m well-connected in the local “home” industry. So, if you or one of your neighbors is looking for a reputable contractor, decorator, or other professional, I may be able to recommend someone. Please feel free to ask.
I’m happy to help.
And, by the way, if you come across someone looking for a good real estate agent, I hope you’ll feel comfortable giving them my name. My business is built on referrals from valued clients and homeowners in the communities I serve. Any referral you send my way will be greatly appreciated!
Let's jump into a quick market update...
In July I will provide a full 6 month review of the market. To quickly summarize what we have seen in the last few weeks I have asked Arizona Association of Realtors President, Gary Nelson for his take on the recent changes.
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“Throughout Arizona and the nation, real estate markets seem to be shifting quickly and sales activity has slowed. This is due to a rise in interest rates since January that has taken away the buying power of most real estate buyers combined with the drastic increase in home prices over the past few years. Sales activity has returned to before-pandemic conditions where housing inventory has increased and buyers are more tentative. Buyers still need to be prepared by being pre-qualified with a reputable local lender and, depending on price range, may still face a multiple-offer situation. Sellers need to also be prepared with properties that show well, are ready for the market and are not overpriced."
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As Gary mentioned, things are shifting quickly and we anticipate more changes to come. I will always have my finger on the pulse of the market, please reach out with any questions!
Have a wonderful 4th of July!
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Renee Gaun * Jeff Ross 928-606-6232 Renee
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15 E. Cherry Ave |
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