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Metro Phoenix 2017 Real Estate Results as seen looking back

(Published on - 8/2/2018 5:07:18 PM)

2017 was one of metro Phoenix’s best-ever years for home sales. Nearly 95,000 Valley houses changed hands last year, a 6% increase from a year earlier. 2004, 2005 and 2011 were the only years higher for home sales, but those were artificially fueled by the subprime mortgage debacle and resulting foreclosures. So we can consider 2017 as truly being the Valley’s best year for home sales in a healthy market. Most parts of the Valley are getting close to the artificial peaks of 2006.  Metro Phoenix’s median existing-home price is now $250,000 now, vs $265,000 at that peak, according to the Cromford Report. One more 6% increase and we will be there. Subdivisions such as Arcadia are well beyond those peaks. Here are a few of the quotes we are hearing the first quarter of 2018:

  • “Phoenix's housing market will continue to perform in 2018 much as it did in 2017,” said Mark Stapp, executive director of the Master of Real Estate Development program at Arizona State University's W.P. Carey School of Business. But he said not enough affordable housing, inflation and resulting interest rate hikes along with new tax laws could be factors that work against the market here in 2018.
  • Ruff is concerned about not enough affordable housing. “The challenge is to build more housing that people can afford,” he said. “Valley prices can’t keep climbing at the current rate, if people can’t find homes they can afford.”
  • Tina Tamboer, of the Cromford Report, said she “wouldn’t be surprised to see appreciation soften a bit this year.” She believes home prices will keep climbing in 2018, but potentially not at the same rate as in the past two years. 

I am a paid subscriber to the Cromford Report center at Arizona State University: Contact me if you would like a market snapshot specific to your area of interest!  Click here for a look at a public snapshot from Cromford. 

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